Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported FY 25Q4 revenues of $5.17 billion, + 10% QoQ, + 33% YoY and up $170 million from the guided midpoint.  </li>
<li>For FY 2025 as a whole, revenue amounted to $18.44 billion, up 23% YoY and their highest ever annual revenue, exceeding the previous record by roughly $1 billion.</li>
<li>China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..</li>
</ul>


LRCX reported FY 25Q4 revenues of $5.17 billion, + 10% QoQ, + 33% YoY and up $170 million from the guided midpoint.  
For FY 2025 as a whole, revenue amounted to $18.44 billion, up 23% YoY and their highest ever annual revenue, exceeding the previous record by roughly $1 billion.
China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..


LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>According to Gartner, PC unit shipments increased 4.1% YoY in Q225 to reach 63.2 million</li>
<li>According to IDC, smartphone unit shipments grew 1% YoY in the second quarter, reaching 295.2 million units</li>
<li>Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026</li>
</ul>


According to Gartner, PC unit shipments increased 4.1% YoY in Q225 to reach 63.2 million
According to IDC, smartphone unit shipments grew 1% YoY in the second quarter, reaching 295.2 million units
Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026


Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).</li>
<li>We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.


Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. </li>
<li>Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.</li>
<li>China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. </li>
</ul>


More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. 
Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.
China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. 


China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

United States

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

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KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC US)

LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..

William Keating

Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026

William Keating

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..

William Keating

Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026

William Keating

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

​US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...