Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period</li>
<li>Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ</li>
<li>China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. </li>
</ul>


Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period
Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ
China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. 


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales have increased MoM  for seven months in a row. PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments have bottomed and are on the rise. Memory has bottomed.</li>
<li>Silicon wafer inventories are piled high, ASML, TEL facing down zero growth in 2024, foundry utilisations are (mostly) in the doldrums with further ASP cuts looming on the horizon. </li>
<li>Multiple data points suggest we'll still be talking about this downturn well into 2024</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales have increased MoM  for seven months in a row. PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments have bottomed and are on the rise. Memory has bottomed.
Silicon wafer inventories are piled high, ASML, TEL facing down zero growth in 2024, foundry utilisations are (mostly) in the doldrums with further ASP cuts looming on the horizon. 
Multiple data points suggest we'll still be talking about this downturn well into 2024


Semiconductors. The Downturn Is Over. Or Is It?

<ul>
<li>Q323 revenues of the top 5 WFE players amounted to $22.7 billion, up 2.6% QoQ, but down 9.5% YoY</li>
<li>On the basis of current quarter forecasts, we calculate CY2023 WFE revenue to reach $92.6 billion, a 1.6% YoY decline, and a far cry from the previously anticipated 20% decline. </li>
<li>Both ASML and TEL are forecasting 2024 revenues roughly flat YoY. We think the same will apply to the broader WFE segment. </li>
</ul>


Q323 revenues of the top 5 WFE players amounted to $22.7 billion, up 2.6% QoQ, but down 9.5% YoY
On the basis of current quarter forecasts, we calculate CY2023 WFE revenue to reach $92.6 billion, a 1.6% YoY decline, and a far cry from the previously anticipated 20% decline. 
Both ASML and TEL are forecasting 2024 revenues roughly flat YoY. We think the same will apply to the broader WFE segment. 


Semiconductor WFE Q323 Segment Roundup & Outlook

<ul>
<li>Q2'23 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to ~$22 billion down ~10% QoQ and essentially flat YoY.</li>
<li>While WFE spending as a whole will decline 20% YoY, ASML &amp; AMAT are outperforming, LRCX &amp; TEL are underperforming with KLAC somewhere in between.</li>
<li>Increased China WFE spending on legacy tools is helping offset ongoing declines from memory and Logic/Foundry</li>
</ul>


Q2'23 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to ~$22 billion down ~10% QoQ and essentially flat YoY.
While WFE spending as a whole will decline 20% YoY, ASML &amp; AMAT are outperforming, LRCX &amp; TEL are underperforming with KLAC somewhere in between.
Increased China WFE spending on legacy tools is helping offset ongoing declines from memory and Logic/Foundry


Semiconductor WFE. China Spending Spree Offsets Memory & Logic Declines

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMAT reported record Q326 revenues of $9.1 billion, +15% QoQ (the highest QoQ growth in the company’s history), +25% YoY, all while handily beating the guided midpoint of $8.95 billion.</li>
<li>Non-GAAP GM increased to 50.4%, +40 basis points QoQ and +150 basis points YoY. Operating income was a record $3.10 billion, with EPS of $3.50, also a record.</li>
<li>The &gt;30 YoY growth that we highlighted last quarter - we're saying now that it's greater than that but we don't want to guide our Q1 at this point</li>
</ul>


AMAT reported record Q326 revenues of $9.1 billion, +15% QoQ (the highest QoQ growth in the company’s history), +25% YoY, all while handily beating the guided midpoint of $8.95 billion.
Non-GAAP GM increased to 50.4%, +40 basis points QoQ and +150 basis points YoY. Operating income was a record $3.10 billion, with EPS of $3.50, also a record.
The &gt;30 YoY growth that we highlighted last quarter - we're saying now that it's greater than that but we don't want to guide our Q1 at this point


Applied Materials Q3FY26. Greater & Greater Growth.

United States

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

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KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC US)

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

Global semi sales for October 23 of $46.6 billion, +3.9% MoM, -0.7% YoY. Q323 semi WFE billings $25.6 billion, -11% YoY, -1% QoQ. China set to...

William Keating

Semiconductors. The Downturn Is Over. Or Is It?

Despite the positives that PC and Smartphone markets are in recovery mode, semi sales growing MoM etc, multiple data points suggest we'll still be...

William Keating

Semiconductor WFE Q323 Segment Roundup & Outlook

On the basis of current quarter forecasts, we calculate CY2023 WFE revenue to reach $92.6 billion, a 1.6% YoY decline, and a far cry from the...

William Keating

Semiconductor WFE. China Spending Spree Offsets Memory & Logic Declines

WFE spend to drop 20% YoY, ASML & AMAT are outperforming, LRCX & TEL are underperforming, KLAC somewhere in between. Increased China WFE spend...

William Keating

Applied Materials Q3FY26. Greater & Greater Growth.

The >30 YoY growth that we highlighted last quarter - we're saying now that it's greater than that but we don't want to guide our Q1 at this point

William Keating

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