Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

<p>The Bank of Japan July policy meeting ends tomorrow (Friday 29 July), and markets remain divided as to its outcome.   Although expectations of easing are building (including, according to Nikkei reports, within the BOJ), we see reasons why the BOJ may choose to adopt more modest easing measures than markets expect.</p><p>Earlier this week, markets were not greatly surprised by the Fed’s upbeat tone on 27 July, but as the FOMC left rates on hold, judging that  “[n<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160727a.htm" target="_blank">]ear-term risks to the economic outlook</a>…</p>

The Bank of Japan July policy meeting ends tomorrow (Friday 29 July), and markets remain divided as to its outcome.   Although expectations of easing are building (including, according to Nikkei reports, within the BOJ), we see reasons why the BOJ may choose to adopt more modest easing measures than markets expect.Earlier this week, markets were not greatly surprised by the Fed’s upbeat tone on 27 July, but as the FOMC left rates on hold, judging that  “[n]ear-term risks to the economic outlook…

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since announcing the offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>’s shares have traded consistently above the MBO offer price of JPY6,082. The offer closes on 19 February. </li>
<li>While there was no auction, the offer is reasonable. The spate of recent MBOs that attracted activists successfully securing better terms may also be behind the share price action.</li>
<li>The probability of a bump is low due to no visible activism, peers not re-rating, irrevocables, several crossholders, and the minimum can be lowered. Take profits.  </li>
</ul>


Since announcing the offer, Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)’s shares have traded consistently above the MBO offer price of JPY6,082. The offer closes on 19 February. 
While there was no auction, the offer is reasonable. The spate of recent MBOs that attracted activists successfully securing better terms may also be behind the share price action.
The probability of a bump is low due to no visible activism, peers not re-rating, irrevocables, several crossholders, and the minimum can be lowered. Take profits.  


Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): Risk/Reward as Shares Trade Through Terms

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a> announced MBO intending to take it private. The offer has been set at ¥6,082 per share which translates to an offer size of roughly ¥400B.</li>
<li>In 9MFY26, the company reported revenue of ¥114.5B up 3% YoY, mainly driven by the overseas prescription drug business while the Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products, revenue remained flat.</li>
<li>Given the fundamentals with new products gaining momentum, Salonpas getting back on track and overseas market growing the offer price of ¥6082 seems a decent exit opportunity at the moment.</li>
</ul>



Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) announced MBO intending to take it private. The offer has been set at ¥6,082 per share which translates to an offer size of roughly ¥400B.
In 9MFY26, the company reported revenue of ¥114.5B up 3% YoY, mainly driven by the overseas prescription drug business while the Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products, revenue remained flat.
Given the fundamentals with new products gaining momentum, Salonpas getting back on track and overseas market growing the offer price of ¥6082 seems a decent exit opportunity at the moment.


Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): MBO at ¥6,082 Offers A Decent Exit Opportunity

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a> has recommended an MBO at JPY6,082, a 17.0% premium to the last close and in line with Bloomberg’s stated JPY450 billion valuation. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. The offer is struck at the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>The sheer number of irrevocables and the presence of several cross-holders will aid in deal completion. The tender closes on 19 February.</li>
</ul>



Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) has recommended an MBO at JPY6,082, a 17.0% premium to the last close and in line with Bloomberg’s stated JPY450 billion valuation. 
The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. The offer is struck at the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
The sheer number of irrevocables and the presence of several cross-holders will aid in deal completion. The tender closes on 19 February.


Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): MBO at JPY6,082

Equity Bottom-Up

Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1" rel="noopener">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP)</a> witnessed business revival in Q3, especially in the domestic household and the U.S. business. In Q3, revenue increased 6% YoY and 13% QoQ to ¥45.4B.</li>
<li>Kobayashi has reiterated FY24 guidance. The company has guided for FY24 revenue of ¥172.0B (+4% YoY), operating income of ¥25.5B (-4% YoY), and net profit of ¥20.2B (-1% YoY).</li>
<li>By establishing the supplement business in North America and further expanding OTC medicines, the company aims to achieve sales of ¥34B in the U.S. in 2030, including ¥16B from healthcare.</li>
</ul>



Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP) witnessed business revival in Q3, especially in the domestic household and the U.S. business. In Q3, revenue increased 6% YoY and 13% QoQ to ¥45.4B.
Kobayashi has reiterated FY24 guidance. The company has guided for FY24 revenue of ¥172.0B (+4% YoY), operating income of ¥25.5B (-4% YoY), and net profit of ¥20.2B (-1% YoY).
By establishing the supplement business in North America and further expanding OTC medicines, the company aims to achieve sales of ¥34B in the U.S. in 2030, including ¥16B from healthcare.


Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP): Q3 Shows Early Signs of Business Revival; Aims Big for US

Japan

KOBAYASHI PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and wholesales pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.  The Company also develops and manufactures fragrances, deodorant, sanitary products, and ointment for stiff shoulders, as well as exports to Southeast Asia and the US.

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Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP)

BOJ: The 80 Trillion Yen Question

The Bank of Japan July policy meeting ends tomorrow (Friday 29 July), and markets remain divided as to its outcome. Although expectations of...

Naomi Fink

Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): Risk/Reward as Shares Trade Through Terms

The probability of a bump is low due to no visible activism, peers not re-rating, irrevocables, several crossholders, and the minimum can be...

Arun George

Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): MBO at ¥6,082 Offers A Decent Exit Opportunity

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co announced MBO to go private at ¥6,082 per share. Given the fundamentals the offer price seems a decent exit...

Tina Banerjee

Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): MBO at JPY6,082

The offer is attractive. The sheer number of irrevocables and the presence of several cross-holders will aid in deal completion.

Arun George