Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-lithium-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34827:1" rel="noopener">Global Lithium Resources Ltd (GL1 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1" rel="noopener">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ofx-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8376:1" rel="noopener">OFX Group (OFX AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajinomoto-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12499:1" rel="noopener">Ajinomoto Malaysia (AJI MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-worldwide-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22690:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Global Lithium Resources Ltd (GL1 AU), IDP Education (IEL AU), and Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: OFX Group (OFX AU),Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), Ajinomoto Malaysia (AJI MK), Carnaby Resources (CNB AU), and Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kobayashi Pharma, Global Lithium, IDP, OFX, Ajinomoto, Reliance Worldwide

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Last night, news came out that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1" rel="noopener">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP)</a> had received a ~¥500bn buyout proposal from a PE Fund consortium of CVC, NSSK, and the founding family.</li>
<li>Kobayashi was at the center of a beni koji (red rice yeast) supplements contamination scandal revealed in 2024. The Chairman and CEO from the family resigned.</li>
<li>Activist Oasis Management built a stake 2+yrs ago and have steadily increased it to 14%. They want the founding family influence out. This isn't as easy as one likes.</li>
</ul>


Last night, news came out that Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP) had received a ~¥500bn buyout proposal from a PE Fund consortium of CVC, NSSK, and the founding family.
Kobayashi was at the center of a beni koji (red rice yeast) supplements contamination scandal revealed in 2024. The Chairman and CEO from the family resigned.
Activist Oasis Management built a stake 2+yrs ago and have steadily increased it to 14%. They want the founding family influence out. This isn't as easy as one likes.


[Japan M&A/Activism] Kobayashi Pharma (4967) Gets Buyout Proposal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>CVC and NSSK are reportedly proposing a buyout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1" rel="noopener">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP)</a> worth over JPY500bn, possibly with the founding family. That implies JPY6,406 a share, a 9% premium.</li>
<li>While the offer appears attractive relative to precedent and peer multiples, Oasis, the largest shareholder, is unlikely to back it.</li>
<li>At the rumoured offer, Oasis will get a 17% return on its average cost, which is modest. The Taisho privatisation precedent suggests Oasis will push for a higher offer. </li>
</ul>


CVC and NSSK are reportedly proposing a buyout of Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP) worth over JPY500bn, possibly with the founding family. That implies JPY6,406 a share, a 9% premium.
While the offer appears attractive relative to precedent and peer multiples, Oasis, the largest shareholder, is unlikely to back it.
At the rumoured offer, Oasis will get a 17% return on its average cost, which is modest. The Taisho privatisation precedent suggests Oasis will push for a higher offer. 


Kobayashi Pharma (4967 JP): CVC/NSSK Buyout Rumour Faces an Oasis Hurdle

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.</li>
<li>Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.</li>
<li>The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.</li>
</ul>


China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.
Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.
The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.


Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Index Rebalance

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

<ul>
<li>The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.</li>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.</li>
</ul>


The FRTIB benchmark switch from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index will result in a round trip trade of around US$56bn.
The changes for the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and a bunch of other mainland China indices will be announced after market close on Friday.
Relatively quiet week for ETF flows with no major creations or redemptions during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

Japan

KOBAYASHI PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and wholesales pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.  The Company also develops and manufactures fragrances, deodorant, sanitary products, and ointment for stiff shoulders, as well as exports to Southeast Asia and the US.

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Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP)

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kobayashi Pharma, Global Lithium, IDP, OFX, Ajinomoto, Reliance Worldwide

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A/Activism] Kobayashi Pharma (4967) Gets Buyout Proposal

CVC and NSSK have made a NBIO fot Kobayashi Pharma at ¥500bn reportedly. The company confirms the approach. Activist+Passive is 35% but the rest of...

Travis Lundy

Kobayashi Pharma (4967 JP): CVC/NSSK Buyout Rumour Faces an Oasis Hurdle

While the offer appears attractive relative to precedent and peer multiples, Oasis, the largest shareholder, is unlikely to back it. A higher offer...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kobayashi Pharma, Global Lithium, IDP, OFX, Ajinomoto, Reliance Worldwide

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A/Activism] Kobayashi Pharma (4967) Gets Buyout Proposal

CVC and NSSK have made a NBIO fot Kobayashi Pharma at ¥500bn reportedly. The company confirms the approach. Activist+Passive is 35% but the rest of...

Travis Lundy

Kobayashi Pharma (4967 JP): CVC/NSSK Buyout Rumour Faces an Oasis Hurdle

While the offer appears attractive relative to precedent and peer multiples, Oasis, the largest shareholder, is unlikely to back it. A higher offer...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

​Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: FRTIB, Japan, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, WuXi XDC, Asahi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.