Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Koei Tecmo generated ¥24.4bn in OP beating guidance of ¥22bn but coming in a touch below consensus of ¥25.0bn. Despite the slight miss and weak guidance of ¥24.5bn in OP vs. consensus ¥28.0bn for consensus we believe that consensus is too conservative, and OP will clear ¥30bn next year and potentially ¥45bn the year after. Despite THAT, however, we believe it may be time to step off this ride.</p>

Koei Tecmo generated ¥24.4bn in OP beating guidance of ¥22bn but coming in a touch below consensus of ¥25.0bn. Despite the slight miss and weak guidance of ¥24.5bn in OP vs. consensus ¥28.0bn for consensus we believe that consensus is too conservative, and OP will clear ¥30bn next year and potentially ¥45bn the year after. Despite THAT, however, we believe it may be time to step off this ride.

<p>Nintendo held its first Nintendo Direct in a while today, announcing a number of ported titles, remasters, expansions and providing an updated trailer for Monster Hunter Rise. They also announced a remaster of the Wii’s Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword for a July release and the next Splatoon title, set to release in 2022.</p>

Nintendo held its first Nintendo Direct in a while today, announcing a number of ported titles, remasters, expansions and providing an updated trailer for Monster Hunter Rise. They also announced a remaster of the Wii’s Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword for a July release and the next Splatoon title, set to release in 2022.

Nintendo – Direct Points to Improving Third Party Support and Holiday Launch for New Switch

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>On our next Webinar, we welcome Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> to discuss stalwart Japanese video game publishers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koei-tecmo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20277:1" rel="noopener">Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capcom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1459:1" rel="noopener">Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)</a> , both positioned for a strong 2021 with strong product line-ups and high demand from their audience.</p>
<h3>The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 17 February 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.<a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=85686282338" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
</h3>
<p>Watch the session here:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fYxbY5zAYxU" width="560" height="315" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p>
<p>Or subscribe to the podcast feed and listen on the go:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/episode/5a7l2cL9wvaXrZ09mJQhB3" width="100%" height="232" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe></p>
<p>Mio Kato has over 15 years of experience looking at Japanese and Asian cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos. He was previously with FrontPoint Partners LP, Arrowhawk Capital Partners, and Uzabase before founding LightStream Research.</p>

On our next Webinar, we welcome Insight Provider Mio Kato to discuss stalwart Japanese video game publishers Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) and Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP) , both positioned for a strong 2021 with strong product line-ups and high demand from their audience.
The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 17 February 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Watch the session here:

Or subscribe to the podcast feed and listen on the go:

Mio Kato has over 15 years of experience looking at Japanese and Asian cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos. He was previously with FrontPoint Partners LP, Arrowhawk Capital Partners, and Uzabase before founding LightStream Research.

Smartkarma Webinar | Koei Tecmo - Capcom: Warriors and Monster Hunters on the Rise

<p>Koei Tecmo revised up guidance to ¥56bn in revenue (consensus ¥55.0bn), ¥22bn in OP (consensus ¥23.3bn) and ¥25.0bn in NP (consensus ¥22.4bn). These revisions remain conservative as 4Q is typically seasonally strong (though it will be less so this year due to the timing of various releases) and Koei Tecmo has already generated ¥19.4bn in OP in the last three quarters.</p>

Koei Tecmo revised up guidance to ¥56bn in revenue (consensus ¥55.0bn), ¥22bn in OP (consensus ¥23.3bn) and ¥25.0bn in NP (consensus ¥22.4bn). These revisions remain conservative as 4Q is typically seasonally strong (though it will be less so this year due to the timing of various releases) and Koei Tecmo has already generated ¥19.4bn in OP in the last three quarters.

Koei Tecmo – A Beat as Hyrule Warriors, Sangokushi Hadou and the Market Rally All Chip In

<p>When Koei-Tecmo released earnings we said that analysts were wrong to focus excessively on the delay of KT’s 5m seller title because we felt Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity which released on the 20<sup>th</sup> would probably sell more than 5m units and that was why KT had delayed the other title… i.e. earnings management. Indeed, it appears Nintendo’s Switch magic is working for third party developers as well and Hyrule Warriors is probably going to sell 5m units, not in its lifetime but perhaps this quarter. As we said previously… <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/koei-tecmo-the-market-is-sleeping-on-the-zelda-musou-nintendo-tie-up-for-switch-but-shouldn-t" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Market Is Sleeping on the Zelda Musou Nintendo Tie-Up for Switch but Shouldn’t</a></p>

When Koei-Tecmo released earnings we said that analysts were wrong to focus excessively on the delay of KT’s 5m seller title because we felt Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity which released on the 20th would probably sell more than 5m units and that was why KT had delayed the other title… i.e. earnings management. Indeed, it appears Nintendo’s Switch magic is working for third party developers as well and Hyrule Warriors is probably going to sell 5m units, not in its lifetime but perhaps this quarter. As we said previously… The Market Is Sleeping on the Zelda Musou Nintendo Tie-Up for Switch but Shouldn’t

Koei-Tecmo – Hyrule Warriors Clears 3m Units in 4 Days as Nintendo Switch Magic Continues

Japan

Koei Tecmo Holdings Co.,Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Koei Co., Ltd. and Tecmo Ltd. The Company develops and distributes video game software for personal computers and home video game consoles. The Company also operates other media business such as marketing of books and CDs and amusement facility operation.

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Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP)

Koei Tecmo – Turning Cautious

Koei Tecmo has returned 147% since we first identified its potential in November 2019 outperforming TOPIX by more than 100% in a year and a half......

Mio Kato

Nintendo – Direct Points to Improving Third Party Support and Holiday Launch for New Switch

The Nintendo Direct today showcased titles from Square Enix, Capcom, Koei Tecmo and Nintendo itself, pointing to a moderately strong pipeline...

Mio Kato

Smartkarma Webinar | Koei Tecmo - Capcom: Warriors and Monster Hunters on the Rise

On 17 Feb, 5pm SGT, join us and Mio Kato to discuss stalwart Japanese video game publishers Koei Tecmo and Capcom , both positioned for a strong...

Smartkarma Research

Koei Tecmo – A Beat as Hyrule Warriors, Sangokushi Hadou and the Market Rally All Chip In

Koei Tecmo continues to perform strongly with both package games and mobile contributing. This should continue next year and YoY OP growth is...

Mio Kato

Koei-Tecmo – Hyrule Warriors Clears 3m Units in 4 Days as Nintendo Switch Magic Continues

Our previous report on Koei Tecmo was titled "Up 107% in a Year, Yet Not Too Late to Own". We are starting to wonder if last year was just the...

Mio Kato

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