Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Keiyo announced a large (9.2% of shares out) ToSTNeT-3 buyback for tomorrow morning at JPY 855/share. </li>
<li>Normally this would be an occasion for looking at the significant accretion. </li>
<li>This time there are possible offsets which are less encouraging.</li>
</ul>


Keiyo announced a large (9.2% of shares out) ToSTNeT-3 buyback for tomorrow morning at JPY 855/share. 
Normally this would be an occasion for looking at the significant accretion. 
This time there are possible offsets which are less encouraging.


Very Large Keiyo (8168 JP) Buyback NOT Necessarily Bullish

This morning's Yomiuri newspaper has an <a href="https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/economy/20201028-OYT1T50030/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> (paywalled) which says that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> will, within this week, launch a Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimachu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5235:1" rel="noopener">Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP)</a>, putting itself in competition with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">Dcm Holdings (3050 JP)</a> which has already launched a Tender Offer at JPY 4200/share, currently set to expire on the 16 November.The possibility of Nitori coming in was  flagged by the Nikkei on the 20th, late, and Shimachu shares jumped more than 10% the next day, and have recently been trading in the JPY 4,700-4,800 area. This development was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nitori-to-make-a-rival-bid-for-shimachu-more-fun-to-go" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44353" rel="noopener">Nitori To Make a Rival Bid for Shimachu? More Fun To Go</a> after discussing the original Tender Offer by DCM (which was stated as too light a bid) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dcm-does-a-full-takeover-of-shimachu-looks-like-a-strong-price-look-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43806" rel="noopener">DCM Does a Full Takeover of Shimachu - Looks Like a Strong Price. Look Again.</a> An official unsolicited TOB by Nitori would be an interesting hostile-but-not-necessarily-so bid for what may be the last good quality Tokyo-based asset of the type available to be scooped up (there are other chains of similar-type stores, but nothing so broad-based, branded, or extensive to my knowledge).Right now, we have a lack of information. We have a newspaper article by a paper which has not yet (to my knowledge) discussed the matter. But the shares are trading now through JPY 4,900/share.And it is worth gaming out the possibilities, preparing for how you will react when there is no additional news or immediate reaction.As a friend often iterates, "Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan."

This morning's Yomiuri newspaper has an article (paywalled) which says that Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) will, within this week, launch a Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP), putting itself in competition with Dcm Holdings (3050 JP) which has already launched a Tender Offer at JPY 4200/share, currently set to expire on the 16 November.The possibility of Nitori coming in was  flagged by the Nikkei on the 20th, late, and Shimachu shares jumped more than 10% the next day, and have recently been trading in the JPY 4,700-4,800 area. This development was discussed in Nitori To Make a Rival Bid for Shimachu? More Fun To Go after discussing the original Tender Offer by DCM (which was stated as too light a bid) in DCM Does a Full Takeover of Shimachu - Looks Like a Strong Price. Look Again. An official unsolicited TOB by Nitori would be an interesting hostile-but-not-necessarily-so bid for what may be the last good quality Tokyo-based asset of the type available to be scooped up (there are other chains of similar-type stores, but nothing so broad-based, branded, or extensive to my knowledge).Right now, we have a lack of information. We have a newspaper article by a paper which has not yet (to my knowledge) discussed the matter. But the shares are trading now through JPY 4,900/share.And it is worth gaming out the possibilities, preparing for how you will react when there is no additional news or immediate reaction.As a friend often iterates, "Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan."

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Leading home centre group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">Dcm Holdings (3050 JP)</a> announced it will acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimachu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5235:1" rel="noopener">Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP)</a>, the seventh largest chain, in November. The move will catapult DCM back to the top of the ranking.
The deal could also provide a catalyst for further consolidation in a sector that’s long overdue for more after remaining static for much of the past 15 years. While the drugstore and homecentre sectors are very different, they do share one similarity: the leaders dominate in certain territories but none are true national retailers. In drugstores, national coverage through M&amp;A has been happening in the last two years but in homecentres only two firms are cross-regional.
While the leading 10 chains had a 65.5%, share and the top 30 more than 90% in FY2019, to scale effectively against competition from all sides, true national leaders will have to emerge.
The proposed takeover is also an expression of the current flux in the homecentre market as consumers increase further their consumption of home decoration and home improvement category. Although this is a long-term trend, homecentre retailers were slow to exploit this, leaving the field to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> and other dedicated home decoration retailers.
There are now more signs of the sector leaders doing more to widen private label merchandise ranges to take a slice of this growing market, and some are even launching dedicated chains (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/targeting-nitori-cainz-follows-workman-s-success-into-homeware-retailing-with-style-factory-chain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">see this insight for a detailed look at the new threat to Nitori from Cainz</a>, the unlisted homecentre sector leader – at least until DCM absorbs Shimachu). See this separate insight for more on this. Shimachu will be a key help to DCM in targeting this market given its more consumer-oriented history.
I.e. this is not just another old-style Japan retail case of expansion for the sake of it, but a genuinely interesting and useful strategic deal.

Leading home centre group Dcm Holdings (3050 JP) announced it will acquire Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP), the seventh largest chain, in November. The move will catapult DCM back to the top of the ranking.
The deal could also provide a catalyst for further consolidation in a sector that’s long overdue for more after remaining static for much of the past 15 years. While the drugstore and homecentre sectors are very different, they do share one similarity: the leaders dominate in certain territories but none are true national retailers. In drugstores, national coverage through M&amp;A has been happening in the last two years but in homecentres only two firms are cross-regional.
While the leading 10 chains had a 65.5%, share and the top 30 more than 90% in FY2019, to scale effectively against competition from all sides, true national leaders will have to emerge.
The proposed takeover is also an expression of the current flux in the homecentre market as consumers increase further their consumption of home decoration and home improvement category. Although this is a long-term trend, homecentre retailers were slow to exploit this, leaving the field to Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) and other dedicated home decoration retailers.
There are now more signs of the sector leaders doing more to widen private label merchandise ranges to take a slice of this growing market, and some are even launching dedicated chains (see this insight for a detailed look at the new threat to Nitori from Cainz, the unlisted homecentre sector leader – at least until DCM absorbs Shimachu). See this separate insight for more on this. Shimachu will be a key help to DCM in targeting this market given its more consumer-oriented history.
I.e. this is not just another old-style Japan retail case of expansion for the sake of it, but a genuinely interesting and useful strategic deal.

A New Era of Home Centre Consolidation Starts as DCM Buys Shimachu

In January this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimachu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5235:1" rel="noopener">Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP)</a> made an <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/8184/ir_material3/132556/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> of a buyback of up to ¥10bn, buying back up to 4.2mm shares which was 9.9% of the company over the next seven months. I analysed the prospects of the buyback and the company's interesting history of buybacks, and what it meant for trading/execution strategy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-shimachu-8184-buyback-an-interesting-trade-profile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35726" rel="noopener">BIG Shimachu (8184) Buyback - An Interesting Trade Profile</a> at the time, suggesting they'd only buy 10% of float. <blockquote>
It comes out to 10% of expected ADV from here to end-August - the timeframe of the buyback, but historical buyback patterns show a pattern of buying a higher percentage of market volume in a shorter period. All the previous buybacks have finished well before the allotted timeframe end and have usually completed in 3-4 months. 
Given past patterns, I would expect the buyback to be 15-20+% of ADV for the foreseeable future, possibly going slow in the rest of January then picking up with a vengeance in February.
</blockquote>In fact, the company bought back 60bp of shares out in the first month, then proceeded to speed things up. Today, four months and small change after the announcement, the company <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/8184/tdnet/1836100/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had completed the buyback.The first piece provided a strategy for dealing with the buyback during the life of the buyback AND for after the end of the buyback. In this insight we look at what happened, where we are left, and what comes next.

In January this year, Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) made an announcement of a buyback of up to ¥10bn, buying back up to 4.2mm shares which was 9.9% of the company over the next seven months. I analysed the prospects of the buyback and the company's interesting history of buybacks, and what it meant for trading/execution strategy in BIG Shimachu (8184) Buyback - An Interesting Trade Profile at the time, suggesting they'd only buy 10% of float. 
It comes out to 10% of expected ADV from here to end-August - the timeframe of the buyback, but historical buyback patterns show a pattern of buying a higher percentage of market volume in a shorter period. All the previous buybacks have finished well before the allotted timeframe end and have usually completed in 3-4 months. 
Given past patterns, I would expect the buyback to be 15-20+% of ADV for the foreseeable future, possibly going slow in the rest of January then picking up with a vengeance in February.
In fact, the company bought back 60bp of shares out in the first month, then proceeded to speed things up. Today, four months and small change after the announcement, the company announced it had completed the buyback.The first piece provided a strategy for dealing with the buyback during the life of the buyback AND for after the end of the buyback. In this insight we look at what happened, where we are left, and what comes next.

Shimachu's Buyback Is Done But The Trade Is Not Done

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>The History</h2>In 2009, the private equity arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20668" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> - called Marunouchi Capital - bought a 33.4% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13616" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13616:1">Joyful Honda Co Ltd (3191 JP)</a> - a Kanto-based home center operator - for about 20 billion yen. The company had sought the investment to grow out of its doldrums and expand prior to an IPO which was tentatively slated for 2013-2014. Joyful Honda is one the larger market cap stocks (at just under 200bn yen) in the home center operator sector. The above-mentioned IPO…

The HistoryIn 2009, the private equity arm of Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) - called Marunouchi Capital - bought a 33.4% stake in Joyful Honda Co Ltd (3191 JP) - a Kanto-based home center operator - for about 20 billion yen. The company had sought the investment to grow out of its doldrums and expand prior to an IPO which was tentatively slated for 2013-2014. Joyful Honda is one the larger market cap stocks (at just under 200bn yen) in the home center operator sector. The above-mentioned IPO…

Joyful Honda: HUGE Buyback TOB - Not Meant For You, and Still Rich

Japan

KOHNAN SHOJI CO., LTD. operates a home improvement center chain, located in Osaka, Hyogo, and Kyoto.  The Company sells mainly home improvement products such as lumber, hardware, paint and also household utensils.  Kohnan Shoji also sells auto and leisure products.

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Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP)

Very Large Keiyo (8168 JP) Buyback NOT Necessarily Bullish

Keiyo announced a large buyback for tomorrow AM. Big accretion is usually bullish but Keiyo is rich to peers, and it is not clear where incremental...

Travis Lundy

Gaming Out a Nitori Bid for Shimachu

The Yomiuri says Nitori will launch a TOB as soon as this week. This means Shimachu is quite likely in play, imminently. There are multiple...

Travis Lundy

A New Era of Home Centre Consolidation Starts as DCM Buys Shimachu

Leading home centre group DCM announced it will acquire Shimachu, the seventh largest chain, in November. The move will catapult DCM back to the...

Michael Causton

Shimachu's Buyback Is Done But The Trade Is Not Done

In January this year, Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) made an announcement of a buyback of up to ¥10bn, buying back up to 4.2mm shares which was 9.9% of...

Travis Lundy

Joyful Honda: HUGE Buyback TOB - Not Meant For You, and Still Rich

The HistoryIn 2009, the private equity arm of Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) - called Marunouchi Capital - bought a 33.4% stake in Joyful Honda Co Ltd...

Travis Lundy

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