Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing's PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US markets continue to pivot away from recent tech winners with a continued focus on Trump names.</li>
<li>Monolithic Power sold heavily on concerns it will lose NVDA mkt share to Renesas.</li>
<li>Will good numbers be enough for Recruit to break higher without more buybacks?</li>
</ul>


US markets continue to pivot away from recent tech winners with a continued focus on Trump names.
Monolithic Power sold heavily on concerns it will lose NVDA mkt share to Renesas.
Will good numbers be enough for Recruit to break higher without more buybacks?


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Japan to Reflect the US Pivot from Growth to Value

<ul>
<li>Trump names including banks, energy and tech rally hard, while renewables are sold heavily</li>
<li>Underperformance by semi-capex plays with high China sales may be reflected in Japan SPE today</li>
<li>Global defense rallied on the spectre of higher spend requirements for EU countries</li>
</ul>


Trump names including banks, energy and tech rally hard, while renewables are sold heavily
Underperformance by semi-capex plays with high China sales may be reflected in Japan SPE today
Global defense rallied on the spectre of higher spend requirements for EU countries


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I <em>still</em> see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

<ul>
<li>A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba</li>
<li>Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability</li>
<li>Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies</li>
</ul>


A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba
Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability
Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies


Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

Japan

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

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Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Japan to Reflect the US Pivot from Growth to Value

US markets continue to shift focus from tech winners to Trump names, Monolithic Power sold on NVDA market share concerns, can Recruit break higher...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Trump names rally while renewables sold heavily. Underperformance by semi-capex with high China sales may reflect in Japan SPE. Global defense...

Andrew Jackson

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Japan to Reflect the US Pivot from Growth to Value

​US markets continue to shift focus from tech winners to Trump names, Monolithic Power sold on NVDA market share concerns, can Recruit break higher...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Trump names rally while renewables sold heavily. Underperformance by semi-capex with high China sales may reflect in Japan SPE. Global defense...

Andrew Jackson

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

​Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

US markets continue to shift focus from tech winners to Trump names, Monolithic Power sold on NVDA market share concerns, can Recruit break higher...

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...