Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. </li>
<li>There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. 
There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

<ul>
<li>At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.</li>
<li>At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.</li>
<li>And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.</li>
</ul>


At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.
At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.
And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big gains for semi related after Micron's big beat, although the lions share of this may have priced in during Asian trading yesterday.</li>
<li>China related names in Japan look set to continue gains with HSI futures strong overnight and names like Estee Lauder +10% and L'Oreal +7% overnight.</li>
<li>Election day in Japan, with voting kicking off at JST, results, or at least a strong indication should be known before market close today.</li>
</ul>


Big gains for semi related after Micron's big beat, although the lions share of this may have priced in during Asian trading yesterday.
China related names in Japan look set to continue gains with HSI futures strong overnight and names like Estee Lauder +10% and L'Oreal +7% overnight.
Election day in Japan, with voting kicking off at JST, results, or at least a strong indication should be known before market close today.


Japan Morning Connection: China Related Names Set to Continue Gains

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kokusai has dropped 44% from its July peak, offering a long-term opportunity at reasonably attractive valuations. Management's guidance looks conservative.</li>
<li>KKR has reduced its stake from 43.4% to 23.2%, increasing the float while indicating that it still sees a long-term opportunity. Applied Materials has bought 14.7% of the company.</li>
<li>The completion of a new factory in Japan should double production capacity to meet demand from makers of AI processors, high-bandwidth memory, 3D NAND and power devices.</li>
</ul>


Kokusai has dropped 44% from its July peak, offering a long-term opportunity at reasonably attractive valuations. Management's guidance looks conservative.
KKR has reduced its stake from 43.4% to 23.2%, increasing the float while indicating that it still sees a long-term opportunity. Applied Materials has bought 14.7% of the company.
The completion of a new factory in Japan should double production capacity to meet demand from makers of AI processors, high-bandwidth memory, 3D NAND and power devices.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Major rebound for tech/AI as markets went risk-on with the debate de-risked and consumer inflation data adding to the certainty for Sep rate cuts and a soft landing for the US economy.</li>
<li>Renewables in Japan should follow US names higher after the likes of FSLR surged on expectations measures such as the inflation reduction act will continue.</li>
<li>SPE set to surge, but avoid excessive optimism for China export names after Harris comments that the US will win the AI and quantum computing race, and Trump's China critisism.</li>
</ul>


Major rebound for tech/AI as markets went risk-on with the debate de-risked and consumer inflation data adding to the certainty for Sep rate cuts and a soft landing for the US economy.
Renewables in Japan should follow US names higher after the likes of FSLR surged on expectations measures such as the inflation reduction act will continue.
SPE set to surge, but avoid excessive optimism for China export names after Harris comments that the US will win the AI and quantum computing race, and Trump's China critisism.


Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set to Surge

Japan

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

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Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Quiddity March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal Leaderboard. I see 2 in, 2 out. $3bn a side except if Fast Retailing outperforms N225 by 3%, in which case...

Travis Lundy

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Fast Retailing is the first Nikkei 225 stock to be capped. That meant nearly ¥400bn of selling yesterday. Now it is due to be capped again in 6...

Travis Lundy