External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Record FY23 presales expected for most of the players: Going by the numbers for FY23 reported to date by top developers, we expect annual presales for most of them to surpass their previous highs</li><li>Godrej, Macrotech and Sobha, all reported their lifetime high in residential sales with INR 122/120/52bn respectively</li><li>The annual growth also has been substantial with Godrej growing by 55%, Macrotech by 34% and Sobha by 34%</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Record FY23 presales expected for most of the players: Going by the numbers for FY23 reported to date by top developers, we expect annual presales for most of them to surpass their previous highsGodrej, Macrotech and Sobha, all reported their lifetime high in residential sales with INR 122/120/52bn respectivelyThe annual growth also has been substantial with Godrej growing by 55%, Macrotech by 34% and Sobha by 34%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings continued to remain sub-par with P&amp;L outcomes significantly below estimates</li><li>Credit costs shot up to ~120bps (annualised), as the company shored up its Stage-III provisions to 51% (Q2FY23: 44%) in order to maintain healthy provisioning levels</li><li>While there were low incremental impairments (no write-offs during Q3), the slow pace of resolutions, particularly in project loans (GS-III at ~46%), remains a concer.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings continued to remain sub-par with P&amp;L outcomes significantly below estimatesCredit costs shot up to ~120bps (annualised), as the company shored up its Stage-III provisions to 51% (Q2FY23: 44%) in order to maintain healthy provisioning levelsWhile there were low incremental impairments (no write-offs during Q3), the slow pace of resolutions, particularly in project loans (GS-III at ~46%), remains a concer.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: LIC Housing Finance, Vinati Organics, The Ramco Cements

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our BUY recommendation on ONGC with a target price of INR 178, based on (1) increase in crude price realisation and (2) improvement in domestic gas price realisation</li><li>Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT stood at INR 423/259/152bn, below our estimates, owing to higher other expenses, depreciation and interest cost, partially offset by higher-than-expected other income</li><li>Crude oil and gas production were broadly in line, but total crude oil sales, including JV share, came below estimates. Trent: Trent reported a stellar Q1 print</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ONGC: We maintain our BUY recommendation on ONGC with a target price of INR 178, based on (1) increase in crude price realisation and (2) improvement in domestic gas price realisationQ1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT stood at INR 423/259/152bn, below our estimates, owing to higher other expenses, depreciation and interest cost, partially offset by higher-than-expected other incomeCrude oil and gas production were broadly in line, but total crude oil sales, including JV share, came below estimates. Trent: Trent reported a stellar Q1 printContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Trent, Phoenix Mills, Fine Organic Industries

<div><div><div><ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our BUY rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 375, is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products,</li></ul><div><div><ul><li>NHPC: NHPC’s revenue increased 12.2% YoY to INR15.1bn in Q4FY22, led by 9.3% YoY rise in generation. PAF for Q4FY22 was 76.7%, vs 74.33% YoY.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>AshokaBuildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported revenue/ EBITDA/APATof INR 15.6/1.6/1.8bn, an EBITDA miss on our estimate.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our BUY rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 375, is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products,NHPC: NHPC’s revenue increased 12.2% YoY to INR15.1bn in Q4FY22, led by 9.3% YoY rise in generation. PAF for Q4FY22 was 76.7%, vs 74.33% YoY.AshokaBuildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported revenue/ EBITDA/APATof INR 15.6/1.6/1.8bn, an EBITDA miss on our estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily - Bharat Petroleum Corporation, NHPC, Ashoka Buildcon, Kolte Patil Developers

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

<p>Real estate sector in India has come a long way over the past decade. From being a fragmented unorganized sector fraught with dealings in cash, the sector has been undergoing significant shifts since introduction of regulations like RERA and GST. At the same time, consumer preferences are shifting towards buying from branded and trusted developers. This is leading to favorable supply and demand shifts in the sector which is helping the organized sector.</p>
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<p>Post this thematic insight, we will follow up with a detailed thesis on our top investment idea in the space. </p>
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Real estate sector in India has come a long way over the past decade. From being a fragmented unorganized sector fraught with dealings in cash, the sector has been undergoing significant shifts since introduction of regulations like RERA and GST. At the same time, consumer preferences are shifting towards buying from branded and trusted developers. This is leading to favorable supply and demand shifts in the sector which is helping the organized sector.

Post this thematic insight, we will follow up with a detailed thesis on our top investment idea in the space. 


A Fat Theme | Organized Real Estate Developers in India - A Decadal Opportunity

India

Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. builds residential housing, commercial complexes, and mixed residential and commercial projects.

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Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)

Real Estate - Stable Performance

Going by the numbers for FY23 reported to date by top developers, we expect annual presales for most of them to surpass their previous highs

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: LIC Housing Finance, Vinati Organics, The Ramco Cements

Credit costs shot up to ~120bps (annualised), as the company shored up its Stage-III provisions to 51% (Q2FY23: 44%) in order to maintain healthy...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Trent, Phoenix Mills, Fine Organic Industries

Crude oil and gas production were broadly in line, but total crude oil sales, including JV share, came below estimates. Trent: Trent reported a...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily - Bharat Petroleum Corporation, NHPC, Ashoka Buildcon, Kolte Patil Developers

NHPC’s revenue increased 12.2% YoY to INR15.1bn in Q4FY22, led by 9.3% YoY rise in generation. PAF for Q4FY22 was 76.7%, vs 74.33% YoY.

HDFC Securities

A Fat Theme | Organized Real Estate Developers in India - A Decadal Opportunity

Real Estate sector in India is undergoing rapid shift to Organized from Unorganized. This is leading to asset light development opportunities for...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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