Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

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Yellowstone Equity

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Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Equity Bottom-Up

Kolte Patil Developers / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolte-patil-developers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6819:1" rel="noopener">Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)</a> is on track to post excellent FY23 earnings.</li>
<li>While new project launches were subdued in Q1FY23 with just one launch, Kolte Patil was able to post decent Q1FY23 sales volume of 0.61 MSF led by sustenance sales.</li>
<li>Kolte Patil has guided to be on track to deliver 3.3+ MSF in FY23. More importantly, it is on track to acquire new projects with topline worth INR 7000cr.</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our previous note, Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN) is on track to post excellent FY23 earnings.
While new project launches were subdued in Q1FY23 with just one launch, Kolte Patil was able to post decent Q1FY23 sales volume of 0.61 MSF led by sustenance sales.
Kolte Patil has guided to be on track to deliver 3.3+ MSF in FY23. More importantly, it is on track to acquire new projects with topline worth INR 7000cr.


Kolte Patil: On Track for an Excellent FY23

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our BUY recommendation on ONGC with a target price of INR 178, based on (1) increase in crude price realisation and (2) improvement in domestic gas price realisation</li><li>Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT stood at INR 423/259/152bn, below our estimates, owing to higher other expenses, depreciation and interest cost, partially offset by higher-than-expected other income</li><li>Crude oil and gas production were broadly in line, but total crude oil sales, including JV share, came below estimates. Trent: Trent reported a stellar Q1 print</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ONGC: We maintain our BUY recommendation on ONGC with a target price of INR 178, based on (1) increase in crude price realisation and (2) improvement in domestic gas price realisationQ1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT stood at INR 423/259/152bn, below our estimates, owing to higher other expenses, depreciation and interest cost, partially offset by higher-than-expected other incomeCrude oil and gas production were broadly in line, but total crude oil sales, including JV share, came below estimates. Trent: Trent reported a stellar Q1 printContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Trent, Phoenix Mills, Fine Organic Industries

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil reported a strong FY22 and guided for even a stronger FY23. FY22 closed with highest ever sales value and collections.</li>
<li>FY23 is set to fire on all cylinders - new launches, business development aka new project acquisitions and delivery of under-construction projects.</li>
<li>FY23 sales value is expected to be 2200cr, implying PAT potential of 220cr.  At current market cap of 1800cr, Kolte Patil is trading cheap at 8x P/E per FY23E PAT.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil reported a strong FY22 and guided for even a stronger FY23. FY22 closed with highest ever sales value and collections.
FY23 is set to fire on all cylinders - new launches, business development aka new project acquisitions and delivery of under-construction projects.
FY23 sales value is expected to be 2200cr, implying PAT potential of 220cr.  At current market cap of 1800cr, Kolte Patil is trading cheap at 8x P/E per FY23E PAT.


Kolte Patil: Reported Stellar FY22 Earnings; All Is Set To Post Even Better FY23

<div><div><div><ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our BUY rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 375, is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products,</li></ul><div><div><ul><li>NHPC: NHPC’s revenue increased 12.2% YoY to INR15.1bn in Q4FY22, led by 9.3% YoY rise in generation. PAF for Q4FY22 was 76.7%, vs 74.33% YoY.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>AshokaBuildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported revenue/ EBITDA/APATof INR 15.6/1.6/1.8bn, an EBITDA miss on our estimate.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our BUY rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 375, is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products,NHPC: NHPC’s revenue increased 12.2% YoY to INR15.1bn in Q4FY22, led by 9.3% YoY rise in generation. PAF for Q4FY22 was 76.7%, vs 74.33% YoY.AshokaBuildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported revenue/ EBITDA/APATof INR 15.6/1.6/1.8bn, an EBITDA miss on our estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily - Bharat Petroleum Corporation, NHPC, Ashoka Buildcon, Kolte Patil Developers

<ul>
<li>Residential real estate sector continues to be on an upcycle in line with our thesis. Kolte Patil is benefitting from this trend and reported record quarterly pre-sales of INR 561cr.</li>
<li>Kolte Patil continues to maintain its FY22 guidance at 2.5mm+ sq.ft. sales and FY23 projection at 3mm+ sq.ft. alongside continued improvement in realization as the contribution from Mumbai increases. </li>
<li>Given strong balance sheet, Kolte Patil has been also bidding for new projects and is confident that it may acquire a large new project in Mumbai in the near-term.</li>
</ul>


Residential real estate sector continues to be on an upcycle in line with our thesis. Kolte Patil is benefitting from this trend and reported record quarterly pre-sales of INR 561cr.
Kolte Patil continues to maintain its FY22 guidance at 2.5mm+ sq.ft. sales and FY23 projection at 3mm+ sq.ft. alongside continued improvement in realization as the contribution from Mumbai increases. 
Given strong balance sheet, Kolte Patil has been also bidding for new projects and is confident that it may acquire a large new project in Mumbai in the near-term.


Kolte Patil: Record Pre-Sales In Q3FY22; New Project Acquisition Likely in Mumbai

India

Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. builds residential housing, commercial complexes, and mixed residential and commercial projects.

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Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN)

Kolte Patil: On Track for an Excellent FY23

Kolte Patil is on track to post a strong FY23 in line with our prior note. It is expected to fire on cylinders - sales velocity, deliveries and new...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Trent, Phoenix Mills, Fine Organic Industries

Crude oil and gas production were broadly in line, but total crude oil sales, including JV share, came below estimates. Trent: Trent reported a...

HDFC Securities

Kolte Patil: Reported Stellar FY22 Earnings; All Is Set To Post Even Better FY23

At <2x P/B and with a focus on high-quality residential real estate development in India, Kolte Patil has an upside potential of 75%. Its FY23...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HSIE Results Daily - Bharat Petroleum Corporation, NHPC, Ashoka Buildcon, Kolte Patil Developers

NHPC’s revenue increased 12.2% YoY to INR15.1bn in Q4FY22, led by 9.3% YoY rise in generation. PAF for Q4FY22 was 76.7%, vs 74.33% YoY.

HDFC Securities

Kolte Patil: Record Pre-Sales In Q3FY22; New Project Acquisition Likely in Mumbai

Key trigger for Kolte Patil is its increasing focus on Mumbai. It is close to acquiring a large new project in Mumbai. It also reported record...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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