Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a>  announced a new business strategy. It is worth a <a href="https://www.ricoh.com/-/Media/Ricoh/Sites/com/IR/data/pre/pdf/ir_pre2020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">read</a>. </span></p>
<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Ricoh will be moving away from its core office equipment business to focus on digital services. The market </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">liked</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> this, or more likely, investors were cheering the ¥100b capital return. Regarding the buyback, Travis Lundy has written a must-read:</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":276}'> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ricoh-buyback-redux-it-s-on-it-s-big-crossholders-vs-activist-vs-public-who-sells" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48787" rel="noopener">Ricoh Buyback Redux - It's On, It's Big. Crossholders Vs Activist Vs Public. Who Sells?</a> </span></p>
</div><div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">The new strategy makes perfect sense. Prime Minister Suga is waging a war against the old ways of doing business, which have been stunting Japan’s growth potential. Ricoh, one of the chief paper pushers, simply had to change. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/konica-minolta-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17287:1" rel="noopener">Konica Minolta (4902 JP)</a>  also announced a similar strategic shift. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":200,"335559740":276}'> </span></p></div><div>
<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">CEO Yamashita had enjoyed some success with a cost-cutting strategy since coming to power in 2017. Unfortunately, COVID put an end any further margin improvement. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":200,"335559740":276}'> </span></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/216/original/smartkarma_download.png?1615686431" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194216"></figure></section><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">The share buyback </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">provides</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> management with time to execute the shift to digital services. That is good news for investors. It will be a difficult transition as Ricoh’s competitive landscape becomes increasingly fierce. Rather than competing against a handful of sleepy Japanese </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">copier</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> makers, they are now entering a global arena, battling with some of the biggest names in global tech. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":200,"335559740":276}'> </span></p>
</div><div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><strong>Does the Board have the requisite skills to navigate this brave new world?</strong> In our Board evaluation, where we rate and rank all companies in the Topix 500 on the quality of their board structure, Ricoh ranks just below average. It is ok, but Japanese boards are on average, much lower quality than global peers. </span></p></div>


Last week, Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)  announced a new business strategy. It is worth a read. 
Ricoh will be moving away from its core office equipment business to focus on digital services. The market liked this, or more likely, investors were cheering the ¥100b capital return. Regarding the buyback, Travis Lundy has written a must-read: Ricoh Buyback Redux - It's On, It's Big. Crossholders Vs Activist Vs Public. Who Sells? 
The new strategy makes perfect sense. Prime Minister Suga is waging a war against the old ways of doing business, which have been stunting Japan’s growth potential. Ricoh, one of the chief paper pushers, simply had to change. Konica Minolta (4902 JP)  also announced a similar strategic shift.  
CEO Yamashita had enjoyed some success with a cost-cutting strategy since coming to power in 2017. Unfortunately, COVID put an end any further margin improvement.  
The share buyback provides management with time to execute the shift to digital services. That is good news for investors. It will be a difficult transition as Ricoh’s competitive landscape becomes increasingly fierce. Rather than competing against a handful of sleepy Japanese copier makers, they are now entering a global arena, battling with some of the biggest names in global tech.  
Does the Board have the requisite skills to navigate this brave new world? In our Board evaluation, where we rate and rank all companies in the Topix 500 on the quality of their board structure, Ricoh ranks just below average. It is ok, but Japanese boards are on average, much lower quality than global peers. 

Japan Corporate Governance - Ricoh - Lacking Board Skills?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<div><p>On the 19th of April 2019, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)</a> held an Investor Day conference discussing the 19th Mid Term Management Plan, and its long-term capital plan to return profits made in the 19th Plan to investors. In mid-2019, activist Effissimo Capital Management - which had been building a large position for 3+ years - announced it had gotten to 19% and would go activist. In late 2019, another Investor Day laid the groundwork for the 20th Mid-Term Management Plan. On the 27th of March 2020 the company held an <a href="https://www.ricoh.com/IR/events/investors_meeting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Investors Meeting</a>. There was continued discussion of how the company had gone through the pain of realising a few years ago how they were in real trouble, and how they then made significant efforts to change that, and they reiterated the ongoing MTMP goal to pay out a fair chunk of accumulated capital. </p></div><div><p>In the <em>previous</em> two Mid-Term Management Plans (MTMPs), called "Resurgent" and "Ignite", respectively, the company led by CEO "Jake" Yamashita undertook structural reform to create cost savings of ¥100bn (mostly fixing the sales structure in the US, cutting out HQ costs and using RPA ("Robotic Process Automation") everywhere, and streamlining in-house production). They also started cutting businesses which had not delivered margin and revenue improvements. They announced they would stop supporting fraud-hit Ricoh India in late 2017 (a case finally resolved in early 2019), took impairments on Ikon and Mindshift in 2018, deciding to sell their long-held position (tied to Ricoh's founder) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-bottlers-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20051:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)</a> that year to help them smooth out the large losses. In May 2018 they sold Ricoh Logistics. That seemed to get them "over the hump" as Yamashita-san said then, and the growth strategy outlined in mid-2018 concentrated on industrial commercial printing and more features in MFPs to create a better "digital services business."</p></div><div><p>In early March 2020, they announced they were going to sell 20% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-leasing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9144:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Leasing (8566 JP)</a>to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-leasing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12780:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Leasing Co (8425 JP)</a>, which would allow them to de-consolidate Ricoh Leasing, completely changing the optics of Ricoh's consolidated debt position. </p></div><p>The company in its March 2020 Investor Day gave a further preview of the next Mid-Term Plan for FY20-22 called "Lift Off" which was supposed to be fully announced in May 2020 (and which Yamashita-san had previously previewed in November 2019). There would be digital services and capital returns, responding to the constant pressure from activist firm Effissimo Capital Management which had lifted its position to 19% in late 2019 and changed the purpose of their holding to "making important recommendations to management" then too. The stock hit a four-year high just before Q3 earnings came out in February, fell in March 2020, but there was hope. </p><p><em><strong>I wrote about the situation originally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ricoh-s-big-buyback-potential-the-timing-is-right" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38518" rel="noopener">Ricoh's BIG Buyback Potential - The Timing Is Right</a>. </strong></em></p><p>Unfortunately, when full-year earnings came out, the issues facing office supply and documentation businesses in the US and Europe as covid-19 worsened slightly delayed the execution of the Capital Return Plan at the start of the new MTP. I wrote about the timing and the relative trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ricoh-redux-get-long-vs-comps" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39155" rel="noopener"><em><strong>Ricoh Redux:  Get Long Vs Comps</strong></em></a> in early May 2020.</p><p>By the start of calendar Q4 however, after Ricoh had outperformed by 25+% in 5 months, forward forecasts for Ricoh earnings started to deteriorate much faster than for rivals and I recommended taking off the trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ricoh-reductively-reduced-bullishness-so-take-off-the-trade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42625" rel="noopener"><em><strong>Ricoh (Reductively) - Reduced Bullishness So Take Off the Trade</strong></em></a>. </p><p>The buyback would come, but the Valley of the Shadow of Covid was deep and wide. </p><h3>The NEW News Today</h3><p>Ricoh today announced it would launch its buyback, of up to 145,000,000 shares (20.02%) spending up to ¥100 billion. Once the buyback is completed, the company will retire the repurchased shares PLUS another 20,000,000 shares. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/081/original/Screenshot+2021-03-03+at+7.38.47+PM.png?1614771571" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192081"></figure><p></p></section><div class="content-highlight"><p>This is big news, and deserves a much closer look.</p></div>

On the 19th of April 2019, Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP) held an Investor Day conference discussing the 19th Mid Term Management Plan, and its long-term capital plan to return profits made in the 19th Plan to investors. In mid-2019, activist Effissimo Capital Management - which had been building a large position for 3+ years - announced it had gotten to 19% and would go activist. In late 2019, another Investor Day laid the groundwork for the 20th Mid-Term Management Plan. On the 27th of March 2020 the company held an Investors Meeting. There was continued discussion of how the company had gone through the pain of realising a few years ago how they were in real trouble, and how they then made significant efforts to change that, and they reiterated the ongoing MTMP goal to pay out a fair chunk of accumulated capital. In the previous two Mid-Term Management Plans (MTMPs), called "Resurgent" and "Ignite", respectively, the company led by CEO "Jake" Yamashita undertook structural reform to create cost savings of ¥100bn (mostly fixing the sales structure in the US, cutting out HQ costs and using RPA ("Robotic Process Automation") everywhere, and streamlining in-house production). They also started cutting businesses which had not delivered margin and revenue improvements. They announced they would stop supporting fraud-hit Ricoh India in late 2017 (a case finally resolved in early 2019), took impairments on Ikon and Mindshift in 2018, deciding to sell their long-held position (tied to Ricoh's founder) in Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP) that year to help them smooth out the large losses. In May 2018 they sold Ricoh Logistics. That seemed to get them "over the hump" as Yamashita-san said then, and the growth strategy outlined in mid-2018 concentrated on industrial commercial printing and more features in MFPs to create a better "digital services business."In early March 2020, they announced they were going to sell 20% of Ricoh Leasing (8566 JP)to Mizuho Leasing Co (8425 JP), which would allow them to de-consolidate Ricoh Leasing, completely changing the optics of Ricoh's consolidated debt position. The company in its March 2020 Investor Day gave a further preview of the next Mid-Term Plan for FY20-22 called "Lift Off" which was supposed to be fully announced in May 2020 (and which Yamashita-san had previously previewed in November 2019). There would be digital services and capital returns, responding to the constant pressure from activist firm Effissimo Capital Management which had lifted its position to 19% in late 2019 and changed the purpose of their holding to "making important recommendations to management" then too. The stock hit a four-year high just before Q3 earnings came out in February, fell in March 2020, but there was hope. I wrote about the situation originally in Ricoh's BIG Buyback Potential - The Timing Is Right. Unfortunately, when full-year earnings came out, the issues facing office supply and documentation businesses in the US and Europe as covid-19 worsened slightly delayed the execution of the Capital Return Plan at the start of the new MTP. I wrote about the timing and the relative trade in Ricoh Redux:  Get Long Vs Comps in early May 2020.By the start of calendar Q4 however, after Ricoh had outperformed by 25+% in 5 months, forward forecasts for Ricoh earnings started to deteriorate much faster than for rivals and I recommended taking off the trade in Ricoh (Reductively) - Reduced Bullishness So Take Off the Trade. The buyback would come, but the Valley of the Shadow of Covid was deep and wide. The NEW News TodayRicoh today announced it would launch its buyback, of up to 145,000,000 shares (20.02%) spending up to ¥100 billion. Once the buyback is completed, the company will retire the repurchased shares PLUS another 20,000,000 shares. This is big news, and deserves a much closer look.

Ricoh Buyback Redux - It's On, It's Big. Crossholders Vs Activist Vs Public. Who Sells?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>The results of the JPX Nikkei 400 review have been announced. There are 32 inclusions and 27 deletions to bring the number of constituents back to 400 and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November.</p><p>The index review is normally effective after the close of trading on  the second last trading day in August, but was postponed by 3 months this year because of the extension given to companies to file their annual reports and quarterly reports to 30 September owing to COVID-19.</p><p>These are the stocks that have been included and excluded from the index.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 181pt;"><h3>Inclusions</h3></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 197pt;"><h3>Exclusions</h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1766.T</td>
<td>Token Corp</td>
<td>2124.T</td>
<td>Jac Recruitment Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2222.T</td>
<td>Kotobuki Spirits Co Ltd</td>
<td>2206.T</td>
<td>Ezaki Glico Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2264.T</td>
<td>Morinaga Milk Industry Co Ltd</td>
<td>2432.T</td>
<td>DeNA Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2317.T</td>
<td>Systena Corp</td>
<td>3254.T</td>
<td>Pressance Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2593.T</td>
<td>Ito En Ltd</td>
<td>3668.T</td>
<td>Colopl Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2811.T</td>
<td>Kagome Co Ltd</td>
<td>4246.T</td>
<td>DaikyoNishikawa Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3563.T</td>
<td>Sushiro Global Holdings Ltd</td>
<td>4587.T</td>
<td>PeptiDream Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3635.T</td>
<td>Koei Tecmo Holdings Co Ltd</td>
<td>4681.T</td>
<td>Resorttrust Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4189.T</td>
<td>KH Neochem Co Ltd</td>
<td>4751.T</td>
<td>CyberAgent Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4348.T</td>
<td>Infocom Corp</td>
<td>4902.T</td>
<td>Konica Minolta Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4527.T</td>
<td>Rohto Pharmaceutical Co Ltd</td>
<td>5486.T</td>
<td>Hitachi Metals Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4686.T</td>
<td>Justsystems Corp</td>
<td>5703.T</td>
<td>Nippon Light Metal Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4816.T</td>
<td>Toei Animation Co Ltd</td>
<td>5714.T</td>
<td>DOWA Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4921.T</td>
<td>Fancl Corp</td>
<td>5975.T</td>
<td>Topre Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5105.T</td>
<td>Toyo Tire Corp</td>
<td>6269.T</td>
<td>Modec Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5631.T</td>
<td>Japan Steel Works Ltd</td>
<td>6324.T</td>
<td>Harmonic Drive Systems Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5857.T</td>
<td>Asahi Holdings Inc</td>
<td>6463.T</td>
<td>TPR Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6005.T</td>
<td>Miura Co Ltd</td>
<td>6473.T</td>
<td>Jtekt Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6035.T</td>
<td>IR Japan Holdings Ltd</td>
<td>6641.T</td>
<td>Nissin Electric Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6134.T</td>
<td>Fuji Corp (Aichi)</td>
<td>6755.T</td>
<td>Fujitsu General Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6465.T</td>
<td>Hoshizaki Corp</td>
<td>6806.T</td>
<td>Hirose Electric Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6532.T</td>
<td>BayCurrent Consulting Inc</td>
<td>7012.T</td>
<td>Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6670.T</td>
<td>MCJ Co Ltd</td>
<td>7606.T</td>
<td>United Arrows Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6753.T</td>
<td>Sharp Corp</td>
<td>7867.T</td>
<td>Tomy Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6754.T</td>
<td>Anritsu Corp</td>
<td>8227.T</td>
<td>Shimamura Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8354.T</td>
<td>Fukuoka Financial Group Inc</td>
<td>8628.T</td>
<td>Matsui Securities Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8572.T</td>
<td>Acom Co Ltd</td>
<td>9404.T</td>
<td>Nippon Television Holdings Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9044.T</td>
<td>Nankai Electric Railway Co Ltd</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9142.T</td>
<td>Kyushu Railway Co</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9504.T</td>
<td>Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9509.T</td>
<td>Hokkaido Electric Power Co Inc</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9603.T</td>
<td>H.I.S. Co Ltd</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

The results of the JPX Nikkei 400 review have been announced. There are 32 inclusions and 27 deletions to bring the number of constituents back to 400 and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November.The index review is normally effective after the close of trading on  the second last trading day in August, but was postponed by 3 months this year because of the extension given to companies to file their annual reports and quarterly reports to 30 September owing to COVID-19.These are the stocks that have been included and excluded from the index.








Inclusions
Exclusions


Name
Code
Name
Code


1766.T
Token Corp
2124.T
Jac Recruitment Co Ltd


2222.T
Kotobuki Spirits Co Ltd
2206.T
Ezaki Glico Co Ltd


2264.T
Morinaga Milk Industry Co Ltd
2432.T
DeNA Co Ltd


2317.T
Systena Corp
3254.T
Pressance Corp


2593.T
Ito En Ltd
3668.T
Colopl Inc


2811.T
Kagome Co Ltd
4246.T
DaikyoNishikawa Corp


3563.T
Sushiro Global Holdings Ltd
4587.T
PeptiDream Inc


3635.T
Koei Tecmo Holdings Co Ltd
4681.T
Resorttrust Inc


4189.T
KH Neochem Co Ltd
4751.T
CyberAgent Inc


4348.T
Infocom Corp
4902.T
Konica Minolta Inc


4527.T
Rohto Pharmaceutical Co Ltd
5486.T
Hitachi Metals Ltd


4686.T
Justsystems Corp
5703.T
Nippon Light Metal Holdings Co Ltd


4816.T
Toei Animation Co Ltd
5714.T
DOWA Holdings Co Ltd


4921.T
Fancl Corp
5975.T
Topre Corp


5105.T
Toyo Tire Corp
6269.T
Modec Inc


5631.T
Japan Steel Works Ltd
6324.T
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc


5857.T
Asahi Holdings Inc
6463.T
TPR Co Ltd


6005.T
Miura Co Ltd
6473.T
Jtekt Corp


6035.T
IR Japan Holdings Ltd
6641.T
Nissin Electric Co Ltd


6134.T
Fuji Corp (Aichi)
6755.T
Fujitsu General Ltd


6465.T
Hoshizaki Corp
6806.T
Hirose Electric Co Ltd


6532.T
BayCurrent Consulting Inc
7012.T
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd


6670.T
MCJ Co Ltd
7606.T
United Arrows Ltd


6753.T
Sharp Corp
7867.T
Tomy Co Ltd


6754.T
Anritsu Corp
8227.T
Shimamura Co Ltd


8354.T
Fukuoka Financial Group Inc
8628.T
Matsui Securities Co Ltd


8572.T
Acom Co Ltd
9404.T
Nippon Television Holdings Inc


9044.T
Nankai Electric Railway Co Ltd




9142.T
Kyushu Railway Co




9504.T
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc




9509.T
Hokkaido Electric Power Co Inc




9603.T
H.I.S. Co Ltd






JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Better Late Than Never (32 Adds; 27 Deletes)

<p>On 19 April I wrote about Ricoh's big buyback potential, saying the timing was right in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ricoh-s-big-buyback-potential-the-timing-is-right" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38518" rel="noopener">Ricoh's BIG Buyback Potential - The Timing Is Right</a>. I followed up three weeks later with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ricoh-redux-get-long-vs-comps" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39155" rel="noopener">Ricoh Redux:  Get Long Vs Comps</a> just before the earnings announcement which I expected would deliver on the share buyback. </p><p>We didn't get it. No buyback. And there was no earnings forecast for the year to March 2021. Talk in the meeting and presentation about how orders were OK but deliveries in Europe weren't because of the lockdown rules so who knew when things would come back to normal. The "new normal" of WFH had not made the outlook better. </p><p>The stock itself rose sharply despite the lack of guidance, but has since fallen back to below March 2020 "covid-crash" lows. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/504/original/Screenshot%202020-10-16%20at%2010.19.40%20AM.png?1602814817" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165504"></figure></section><p>Since April 17 and May 8, TOPIX is up 13% and 12%, TOPIX Electrical Appliances is up 22.5% and 18.3%, and TOPIX Precision Instruments is up 16.1% and 19.0%. </p><p>Ricoh, on the other hand, is -9.4% and -12.8% now. </p><p>But the trade was to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a> against a basket of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/konica-minolta-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17287:1" rel="noopener">Konica Minolta (4902 JP)</a>. That trade has done well at +26.2% and +19.6% in 23 weeks and 21 weeks respectively.  </p><p>The question is what does one do now.</p>

On 19 April I wrote about Ricoh's big buyback potential, saying the timing was right in Ricoh's BIG Buyback Potential - The Timing Is Right. I followed up three weeks later with Ricoh Redux:  Get Long Vs Comps just before the earnings announcement which I expected would deliver on the share buyback. We didn't get it. No buyback. And there was no earnings forecast for the year to March 2021. Talk in the meeting and presentation about how orders were OK but deliveries in Europe weren't because of the lockdown rules so who knew when things would come back to normal. The "new normal" of WFH had not made the outlook better. The stock itself rose sharply despite the lack of guidance, but has since fallen back to below March 2020 "covid-crash" lows. Since April 17 and May 8, TOPIX is up 13% and 12%, TOPIX Electrical Appliances is up 22.5% and 18.3%, and TOPIX Precision Instruments is up 16.1% and 19.0%. Ricoh, on the other hand, is -9.4% and -12.8% now. But the trade was to buy Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) against a basket of Canon Inc (7751 JP) and Konica Minolta (4902 JP). That trade has done well at +26.2% and +19.6% in 23 weeks and 21 weeks respectively.  The question is what does one do now.

Ricoh (Reductively) - Reduced Bullishness So Take Off the Trade

Event-Driven

<p>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)</a> is expected to announce its full-year results. </p><p>I do not normally repeat myself before an announcement, but here I have decided I need to pound the table a little harder. So I am reiterating my suggestion that the with or shortly after the results announcement will come the likely near-term announcement of the <em>next</em> Mid-Term Plan, and the announcement for how Ricoh will execute the ¥100bn capital return to shareholders from the last Mid-Term Plan results.</p><p>For the background, please read <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ricoh-s-big-buyback-potential-the-timing-is-right" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38518" rel="noopener">Ricoh's BIG Buyback Potential - The Timing Is Right</a>. </p><p>Given that the Board has already approved the ¥100bn capital return, and that return is almost 20% of current market cap and would be 25% of float, and close to one-third of <em>Real World Float, <strong>investors should not ignore the likely impact here. </strong></em></p>

Today after the close, Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP) is expected to announce its full-year results. I do not normally repeat myself before an announcement, but here I have decided I need to pound the table a little harder. So I am reiterating my suggestion that the with or shortly after the results announcement will come the likely near-term announcement of the next Mid-Term Plan, and the announcement for how Ricoh will execute the ¥100bn capital return to shareholders from the last Mid-Term Plan results.For the background, please read Ricoh's BIG Buyback Potential - The Timing Is Right. Given that the Board has already approved the ¥100bn capital return, and that return is almost 20% of current market cap and would be 25% of float, and close to one-third of Real World Float, investors should not ignore the likely impact here. 

Japan

Konica Minolta Inc is mainly engaged in manufacturing office equipment and performance materials. It also operates health care businesses. The Company also makes copiers, personal computer peripherals, optical lenses, and measuring instruments.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Konica Minolta (4902 JP)

Japan Corporate Governance - Ricoh - Lacking Board Skills?

Ricoh is shifting to become a Digital Services company.....but does it have the Board quality to survive and thrive in an era of Digital...

Mark Chadwick

Ricoh Buyback Redux - It's On, It's Big. Crossholders Vs Activist Vs Public. Who Sells?

Ricoh announced the start of its BIG buyback. 12% of ADV for a year. Forward OP ratios vs peers have stopped falling. The 20th MTP has plans to...

Travis Lundy

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Better Late Than Never (32 Adds; 27 Deletes)

There are 32 inclusions and 27 exclusions from the JPX Nikkei 400. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November and the...

Brian Freitas

Ricoh (Reductively) - Reduced Bullishness So Take Off the Trade

Forward earnings forecasts are worsening by the day and the ratio of Ricoh vs Comp future EBIT took a sharp turn for the worse since early October....

Travis Lundy

Ricoh Redux: Get Long Vs Comps

Today after the close, Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP) is expected to announce its full-year results. I do not normally repeat myself before an...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)