President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Large portion of the business is in secular decline and facing pricing pressure</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a> appears to be losing share in a shrinking market</li>
<li>Estimates are above overly optimistic guidance making shares look optically inexpensive</li>
</ul>


Large portion of the business is in secular decline and facing pricing pressure

Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) appears to be losing share in a shrinking market
Estimates are above overly optimistic guidance making shares look optically inexpensive


Ricoh (7752 JP) - Long Term Structural Decliner with a Recent Boost in Inorganic Rev & Profits

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>10 days ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> announced its 18th ¥50bn buyback in 15yrs. They have a pattern, both in execution and outperformance. </li>
<li>Historically, they are reasonably aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. </li>
<li>Here I look at both - buyback cycle performance and cycle outperformance. Good so far, and now I see a tactical trade but it's not overwhelming.</li>
</ul>


10 days ago Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced its 18th ¥50bn buyback in 15yrs. They have a pattern, both in execution and outperformance. 
Historically, they are reasonably aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. 
Here I look at both - buyback cycle performance and cycle outperformance. Good so far, and now I see a tactical trade but it's not overwhelming.


Assessing the Canon Buyback and Follow-On Performance

<ul>
<li>Canon has conducted 18 buybacks in the last 15 years. Every single one has been the same size. And the parameter-setting and how they are executed is... particular.</li>
<li>For those with Canon to execute, using the information about patterns may be helpful. </li>
<li>For those interested in a trade, there may be one here.</li>
</ul>


Canon has conducted 18 buybacks in the last 15 years. Every single one has been the same size. And the parameter-setting and how they are executed is... particular.
For those with Canon to execute, using the information about patterns may be helpful. 
For those interested in a trade, there may be one here.


Canon Buyback - 18th in a Row at the Same Size, But This Time With a Running Head Start

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener"></a>Fujifilm delivered its 4Q and full-year FY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 15.0% and 63.2% YoY to ¥764.7bn (vs consensus ¥715.7bn) and ¥70.4bn (vs consensus ¥62.5bn) respectively.</li>
<li>The company’s full-year revenue and OP were above its own guidance as well as consensus, and we think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP)</a> ’s guidance for FY03/2024E is too conservative.</li>
<li>The market continues to value Fujifilm as an imaging company and not in line with healthcare peers suggesting there is significant upside to the current valuation multiples.</li>
</ul>



Fujifilm delivered its 4Q and full-year FY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 15.0% and 63.2% YoY to ¥764.7bn (vs consensus ¥715.7bn) and ¥70.4bn (vs consensus ¥62.5bn) respectively.
The company’s full-year revenue and OP were above its own guidance as well as consensus, and we think FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP) ’s guidance for FY03/2024E is too conservative.
The market continues to value Fujifilm as an imaging company and not in line with healthcare peers suggesting there is significant upside to the current valuation multiples.


Fujifilm FQ4: Strong Earnings Beat and There's Further Upside

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP)</a> delivered 3QFY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 13.5% and 4.1% YoY respectively to JPY744.4bn (consensus JPY717.1bn) and JPY81.8bn (consensus JPY80.0bn).</li>
<li>Covid-19 related projects running its course had a slight impact on  healthcare segment but we would not be too worried as new product launches and markets will offset that decline.</li>
<li>Market continues to value Fujifilm as an image company and not a healthcare stock and there is more than 30% upside to the current share price.</li>
</ul>



FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP) delivered 3QFY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 13.5% and 4.1% YoY respectively to JPY744.4bn (consensus JPY717.1bn) and JPY81.8bn (consensus JPY80.0bn).
Covid-19 related projects running its course had a slight impact on  healthcare segment but we would not be too worried as new product launches and markets will offset that decline.
Market continues to value Fujifilm as an image company and not a healthcare stock and there is more than 30% upside to the current share price.


Fujifilm: Robust Quarter; Recent M&A to Drive Healthcare and Materials Biz Further

Japan

Konica Minolta Inc is mainly engaged in manufacturing office equipment and performance materials. It also operates health care businesses. The Company also makes copiers, personal computer peripherals, optical lenses, and measuring instruments.

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Konica Minolta (4902 JP)

Ricoh (7752 JP) - Long Term Structural Decliner with a Recent Boost in Inorganic Rev & Profits

A large portion of Ricoh's business is losing market share in an industry that is facing secular declines. Estimates that above optimistic...

Robert C Prather Jr

Assessing the Canon Buyback and Follow-On Performance

The Canon buyback started 7 trading days ago and is likely nearly done. EPS forecasts are on the up vs peers. Stock is outperforming. There is a...

Travis Lundy

Canon Buyback - 18th in a Row at the Same Size, But This Time With a Running Head Start

Canon (7751) reported salutary Q1 earnings, and revised up FY forecasts. The stock responded well vs Peers. Peers have since reported, but it...

Travis Lundy

Fujifilm FQ4: Strong Earnings Beat and There's Further Upside

Fujifilm's FQ4 earnings beat consensus by a huge margin. Market continues to value Fujifilm as an imaging services stock and not as a healthcare...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Fujifilm: Robust Quarter; Recent M&A to Drive Healthcare and Materials Biz Further

Covid-19 related projects running its course has had a slight impact on the healthcare segment but we would not be too worried. Recent M&A in...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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