Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • KPN | Liberty Global hints on acquiring optical fibre network in the Netherlands • Arcadis | awarded major rail project contract in the UK</li></ul>

In this edition: • KPN | Liberty Global hints on acquiring optical fibre network in the Netherlands • Arcadis | awarded major rail project contract in the UK

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 31 March (KPN | Arcadis)

<ul><li>In this edition: • KPN | has overtaken VodafoneZiggo as the largest consumer broadband provider • Unilever | ice cream division to be named The Magnum Ice Cream Company • Arcadis | acquires WSP Infrastructure Engineering – at current share price trading at highly attractive level</li></ul>

In this edition: • KPN | has overtaken VodafoneZiggo as the largest consumer broadband provider • Unilever | ice cream division to be named The Magnum Ice Cream Company • Arcadis | acquires WSP Infrastructure Engineering – at current share price trading at highly attractive level

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 20 March (KPN | Unilever | Arcadis)

<ul><li>In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Jumbo has found an interim CEO • KPN | Ziggo to increase the download speed for all broadband subscribers • Unilever | former owners believed to be interested in buying back Ben & Jerry’s • InPost / PostNL | Vinted Go to roll out APMs in the Netherlands and Belgium • Van Lanschot Kempen | some post-earnings call remarks • Kendrion | sets itself a challenging FY25 EBITDA-margin goal of at least 15%</li></ul>

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Jumbo has found an interim CEO • KPN | Ziggo to increase the download speed for all broadband subscribers • Unilever | former owners believed to be interested in buying back Ben & Jerry’s • InPost / PostNL | Vinted Go to roll out APMs in the Netherlands and Belgium • Van Lanschot Kempen | some post-earnings call remarks • Kendrion | sets itself a challenging FY25 EBITDA-margin goal of at least 15%

Netherlands

Koninklijke KPN NV provides telecommunications services throughout the Netherlands.  The Company provides local, long distance, international, and mobile telecommunications services, voice-mail, call forwarding, ISDN Internet lines, faxing, and communications services for businesses and individuals.  KPN offers mobile telecommunications through E-Plus in Germany and BASE in Belgium.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Koninklijke KPN (KPN NA)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 31 March (KPN | Arcadis)

In this edition: • KPN | Liberty Global hints on acquiring optical fibre network in the Netherlands • Arcadis | awarded major rail project...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 20 March (KPN | Unilever | Arcadis)

In this edition: • KPN | has overtaken VodafoneZiggo as the largest consumer broadband provider • Unilever | ice cream division to be named The...

The IDEA!

PostNL NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Jumbo has found an interim CEO • KPN | Ziggo to increase the download speed for all broadband...

The IDEA!

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)