Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASM International/ASML/BE Semiconductor Industries | SEMI revises its outlook for worldwide semiconductor equipment market upward but not as strong as WSTS did for the semiconductor market • InPost | survey shows a strong structural shift toward parcel lockers in the UK • KPN | home broadband market expected to grow at a 0.9% CAGR through 2029 • PostNL | CBb annulled fine for not meeting minimum delivery quality in 2019 • Dutch housing market | signs of moderation</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASM International/ASML/BE Semiconductor Industries | SEMI revises its outlook for worldwide semiconductor equipment market upward but not as strong as WSTS did for the semiconductor market • InPost | survey shows a strong structural shift toward parcel lockers in the UK • KPN | home broadband market expected to grow at a 0.9% CAGR through 2029 • PostNL | CBb annulled fine for not meeting minimum delivery quality in 2019 • Dutch housing market | signs of moderation

Koninklijke KPN NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

<ul><li>In this edition: • PostNL | deploys its first APM in Belgium • Bnode | AMP loses Flemish newspaper contracts, increasing restructuring risk • Bnode | 7th leadership change at Radial since the acquisition in 2017 • Odido | Apax reportedly close to buying out Warburg Pincus • E-commerce & Logistics | another Chinese delivery company pops up in Europe</li></ul>

In this edition: • PostNL | deploys its first APM in Belgium • Bnode | AMP loses Flemish newspaper contracts, increasing restructuring risk • Bnode | 7th leadership change at Radial since the acquisition in 2017 • Odido | Apax reportedly close to buying out Warburg Pincus • E-commerce & Logistics | another Chinese delivery company pops up in Europe

KPN NA - What's News in Amsterdam - 28 September (PostNL | Bnode | Odido | E-com & Logistics)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ahold Delhaize’s results came in a bit better than expected, whereby especially the margin development in the US was the main (positive) surprise.</li>
<li>The margin in Europe was flat. Also impressive was the growth in online sales, both in Europe and the US.</li>
<li>The company reiterated its guidance for FY25 and announced a new EUR 1bn share buyback for 2026.</li>
</ul>


Ahold Delhaize’s results came in a bit better than expected, whereby especially the margin development in the US was the main (positive) surprise.
The margin in Europe was flat. Also impressive was the growth in online sales, both in Europe and the US.
The company reiterated its guidance for FY25 and announced a new EUR 1bn share buyback for 2026.


<ul>
<li>The Supervisory Board of a.s.r. intends to appoint Ingrid de Swart as CEO and Chair of the Executive Board, succeeding Jos Baeten, whose term ends at the AGM on 20 May 2026.</li>
<li>De Swart, currently COO/CTO and Executive Board member since 2019, has extensive experience in financial services and has led the integration of Aegon Nederland.</li>
<li>The Board highlights her strong leadership, strategic continuity, and focus on sustainable growth. </li>
</ul>


The Supervisory Board of a.s.r. intends to appoint Ingrid de Swart as CEO and Chair of the Executive Board, succeeding Jos Baeten, whose term ends at the AGM on 20 May 2026.
De Swart, currently COO/CTO and Executive Board member since 2019, has extensive experience in financial services and has led the integration of Aegon Nederland.
The Board highlights her strong leadership, strategic continuity, and focus on sustainable growth. 


Netherlands

Koninklijke KPN NV provides telecommunications services throughout the Netherlands.  The Company provides local, long distance, international, and mobile telecommunications services, voice-mail, call forwarding, ISDN Internet lines, faxing, and communications services for businesses and individuals.  KPN offers mobile telecommunications through E-Plus in Germany and BASE in Belgium.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Koninklijke KPN (KPN NA)

Koninklijke KPN NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASM International/ASML/BE Semiconductor Industries | SEMI revises its outlook for worldwide semiconductor equipment market...

The IDEA!

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

KPN NA - What's News in Amsterdam - 28 September (PostNL | Bnode | Odido | E-com & Logistics)

In this edition: • PostNL | deploys its first APM in Belgium • Bnode | AMP loses Flemish newspaper contracts, increasing restructuring...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Ahold Delhaize’s results came in a bit better than expected, whereby especially the margin development in the US was the main (positive) surprise.

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam

The Supervisory Board of a.s.r. intends to appoint Ingrid de Swart as CEO and Chair of the Executive Board, succeeding Jos Baeten, whose term ends...

The IDEA!

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)