Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Deputy PM Koo guided the threshold decision by month-end, likely before Chuseok; historically, Seoul drops major policy prints on Thu/Fri, pointing to 25–26 as the high-prob window.</li>
<li>Local intel points to ₩5bn; strong public pushback makes it politically locked. Traders are positioning ahead of the 25–26 window, balancing index longs with hedges.</li>
<li>FSS break-up creates regulatory uncertainty, pressuring banks and brokers. Traders appear to be pairing index longs with financials shorts, riding policy momentum while hedging sector risk.</li>
</ul>


Deputy PM Koo guided the threshold decision by month-end, likely before Chuseok; historically, Seoul drops major policy prints on Thu/Fri, pointing to 25–26 as the high-prob window.
Local intel points to ₩5bn; strong public pushback makes it politically locked. Traders are positioning ahead of the 25–26 window, balancing index longs with hedges.
FSS break-up creates regulatory uncertainty, pressuring banks and brokers. Traders appear to be pairing index longs with financials shorts, riding policy momentum while hedging sector risk.


Timing and Hedge Play on Korea’s Top Policy Swing—CGT Applicable Threshold

<ul>
<li>Short-Term, pinpointing exact tickers off this NPS/cumulative voting narrative is tough—activism risk is real, but predicting moves in governance-sensitive names is still premature.</li>
<li>NPS may go aggressive, potentially sparking a market-wide narrative. If limited activism unwinds, Korean stocks could see a broad re-rate, beyond just individual governance names.</li>
<li>Tactically, consider enhanced setups in these names under a passive framework, while closely monitoring governance developments and NPS-driven activism for actionable alpha in individual tickers.</li>
</ul>


Short-Term, pinpointing exact tickers off this NPS/cumulative voting narrative is tough—activism risk is real, but predicting moves in governance-sensitive names is still premature.
NPS may go aggressive, potentially sparking a market-wide narrative. If limited activism unwinds, Korean stocks could see a broad re-rate, beyond just individual governance names.
Tactically, consider enhanced setups in these names under a passive framework, while closely monitoring governance developments and NPS-driven activism for actionable alpha in individual tickers.


Is NPS Really Going for Board Seat Play Via Cumulative Voting? Field Check on This Narrative

<ul>
<li>Covered call ETFs ramped up KOSPI 200 weekly call selling, pushing premiums unusually low despite modest overall volume—likely a key driver behind the premium compression.</li>
<li>KOSPI 100 outperformed KOSPI 200 small-mid caps by 3.7%p last month, probably boosted by call-selling ETFs’ delta-hedge buying concentrated in large caps.</li>
<li>Watch for hedge buy flows ramping up before big events. Timing short-term longs in large caps and shorts in smaller KOSPI 200 names around these windows can yield solid alpha.</li>
</ul>


Covered call ETFs ramped up KOSPI 200 weekly call selling, pushing premiums unusually low despite modest overall volume—likely a key driver behind the premium compression.
KOSPI 100 outperformed KOSPI 200 small-mid caps by 3.7%p last month, probably boosted by call-selling ETFs’ delta-hedge buying concentrated in large caps.
Watch for hedge buy flows ramping up before big events. Timing short-term longs in large caps and shorts in smaller KOSPI 200 names around these windows can yield solid alpha.


Stealthy Long-Short Flow Playing Out Via Local KOSPI 200 Covered Call ETFs

<ul>
<li>KCMC 2025 will likely reveal fresh, unpriced stimulus details, potentially sparking a price rally like last year’s 2% KOSPI 200 jump on the value-up ETF rollout.</li>
<li>The key wildcard at KCMC 2025 is dividends—shifting from Yoon’s Japan-style ROE grind to a Taiwan-style push for bigger shareholder payouts.</li>
<li>With Sept 29 approaching, dividend policy buzz may drive price moves—smart to prep dividend momentum trades to front-run this catalyst.</li>
</ul>


KCMC 2025 will likely reveal fresh, unpriced stimulus details, potentially sparking a price rally like last year’s 2% KOSPI 200 jump on the value-up ETF rollout.
The key wildcard at KCMC 2025 is dividends—shifting from Yoon’s Japan-style ROE grind to a Taiwan-style push for bigger shareholder payouts.
With Sept 29 approaching, dividend policy buzz may drive price moves—smart to prep dividend momentum trades to front-run this catalyst.


Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades

<ul>
<li>With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.</li>
<li>If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.</li>
<li>This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.</li>
</ul>


With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.
If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.
This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.


A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Timing and Hedge Play on Korea’s Top Policy Swing—CGT Applicable Threshold

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Is NPS Really Going for Board Seat Play Via Cumulative Voting? Field Check on This Narrative

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A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks

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Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)