Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our most bullish stance in Asia has been in Japan, Korea and Taiwan (core Asia) and now starting to see rotation into Hong Kong. Tactically, we are seeing rally exhaustion signs as the SPX chisels out a top at the upper rising wedge range. Asia is showing signs of a tactical peak after a good run as Japan struggles at the top end of its own wedge range, Korea testing a secondary top and Taiwan above 16,000 projection. Buy levels on a minor correction are outlined to increase risk bets for a push into late February.

Our most bullish stance in Asia has been in Japan, Korea and Taiwan (core Asia) and now starting to see rotation into Hong Kong. Tactically, we are seeing rally exhaustion signs as the SPX chisels out a top at the upper rising wedge range. Asia is showing signs of a tactical peak after a good run as Japan struggles at the top end of its own wedge range, Korea testing a secondary top and Taiwan above 16,000 projection. Buy levels on a minor correction are outlined to increase risk bets for a push into late February.

As the USD moves into extreme oversold territory we are on the hunt for short hedges in Asia and present positioning on the short side into strength this week. Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been our core long group but nearing secondary resistance levels. Dip support targets outlined to trade a push high and then prepare for a mid to late January risk draw down that sets the stage a drive higher in February/March.

As the USD moves into extreme oversold territory we are on the hunt for short hedges in Asia and present positioning on the short side into strength this week. Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been our core long group but nearing secondary resistance levels. Dip support targets outlined to trade a push high and then prepare for a mid to late January risk draw down that sets the stage a drive higher in February/March.

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Event-Driven

It is again the time of majority shareholder transfer tax play.Korea has this weird tax system called the majority shareholder transfer tax. If you own a stock for more than ₩1B, you will become subject to this tax regardless of whether you are a controlling stakeholder or not.The tax rate varies from 22% to 33%, depending on the size of your capital gains.The tax base date is the same as the year-end dividend record date. So, the ex-eligibility date falls on the same date as the ex-dividend, December 29.

It is again the time of majority shareholder transfer tax play.Korea has this weird tax system called the majority shareholder transfer tax. If you own a stock for more than ₩1B, you will become subject to this tax regardless of whether you are a controlling stakeholder or not.The tax rate varies from 22% to 33%, depending on the size of your capital gains.The tax base date is the same as the year-end dividend record date. So, the ex-eligibility date falls on the same date as the ex-dividend, December 29.

Majority Shareholder Transfer Tax Play: Trade KOSDAQ 150 ETF

No concrete saying on Samsung's year-end special dividend yet.That means we should still expect an additional ₩6.5T to fill up to meet the 3-yr 50% FCF target, which then translates into a ₩1,304 year-end DPS (ord) based on the current street consensus.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Special &amp; interim div-adjusted div yield"}'>Special &amp; interim div-adjusted div yield</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Common DPS (incl. special div)"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]">Common DPS (incl. special div)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1304}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩-412]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]-R[-12]C[2]">₩1,304</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" : Price"}'>: Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":72800}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩-412]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]">₩72,800</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" : Dividend yield"}'>: Dividend yield</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.017912087912087912}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]">1.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1P DPS (incl. special div)"}'>1P DPS (incl. special div)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1306}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩-412]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]-R[-15]C[2]">₩1,306</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" : Price"}'>: Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":68700}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩-412]#,##0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-22]C[0]">₩68,700</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" : Dividend yield"}'>: Dividend yield</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.01901018922852984}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]">1.90%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Difference"}'>Difference</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"0.10%p"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula='=left(((R[-1]C[0]-R[-4]C[0])*100), 4)&amp;"%"&amp;"p"'>0.10%p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - 1P div. yield premium"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>- 1P div. yield premium</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.06130504281976413}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-2]C[0]-R[-5]C[0])/R[-5]C[0]">6.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>It is a 1.8% div yield at the current price (ord). Well, it is not too bad for two weeks of holding.Then, the problem is, of course, hedging.Samsung's single-stock futures are plenty in circulation, easily over 0.6x spot. But F 202001 is currently in severe backwardation at -1,300~-1,500, which is pretty much in line with the market consensus DPS to cancel each other.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Date"}'>Date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Spot"}'>Spot</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"F 202101"}'>F 202101</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Basis"}'>Basis</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44182}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"m\"/\"d\"/\"yy"]'>12/17/20</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":72800}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>72,800</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":71300}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>71,300</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1500}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-2]">-1,500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44181}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"m\"/\"d\"/\"yy"]'>12/16/20</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":73800}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>73,800</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":72500}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>72,500</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1300}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-2]">-1,300</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44180}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,5,"m\"/\"d\"/\"yy"]'>12/15/20</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":73800}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>73,800</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":72500}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>72,500</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1300}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-2]">-1,300</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

No concrete saying on Samsung's year-end special dividend yet.That means we should still expect an additional ₩6.5T to fill up to meet the 3-yr 50% FCF target, which then translates into a ₩1,304 year-end DPS (ord) based on the current street consensus.





Special &amp; interim div-adjusted div yield

Common DPS (incl. special div)
₩1,304


: Price
₩72,800


: Dividend yield
1.79%


1P DPS (incl. special div)
₩1,306


: Price
₩68,700


: Dividend yield
1.90%


Difference
0.10%p


- 1P div. yield premium
6.13%

Source: DART, SEIBro, &amp; FnGuide

It is a 1.8% div yield at the current price (ord). Well, it is not too bad for two weeks of holding.Then, the problem is, of course, hedging.Samsung's single-stock futures are plenty in circulation, easily over 0.6x spot. But F 202001 is currently in severe backwardation at -1,300~-1,500, which is pretty much in line with the market consensus DPS to cancel each other.








Date
Spot
F 202101
Basis


12/17/20
72,800
71,300
-1,500


12/16/20
73,800
72,500
-1,300


12/15/20
73,800
72,500
-1,300

Source: KRX



Samsung Dividend Situation Creates a Huge Futures Basis: Trade Approach to Capitalize on It

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.Currently, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taihan-electric-wire-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11551:1" rel="noopener">Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS)</a> being included in the index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taeyoung-engineering-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18740:1" rel="noopener">Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS)</a> being deleted, with a few stocks as close adds/ deletes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taeyoung-engineering-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18740:1" rel="noopener">Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS)</a>'s expected deletion is a result of the demerger of TY Holdings (363280 KS) in September which has significantly lowered its market cap.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener">Krafton Inc (1486402D KS)</a>'s estimated market cap of US$26-30bn would see it included in the index as a Fast Entry if it lists before the end of April which would put <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sebang-global-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9618:1" rel="noopener">Sebang Global Battery (004490 KS)</a> at risk of deletion. If Krafton lists by end January/ beginning February (seems unlikely at this point in time), it could be included in the KOSPI 200 in March. If it lists after mid Feb but before end April, Krafton could be included in the index at the June review.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taihan-electric-wire-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11551:1" rel="noopener">Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS)</a> has increased in price sharply over the last month and we would wait for the price to stabilize a bit before buying into the stock.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.Currently, we see Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS) being included in the index and Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS) being deleted, with a few stocks as close adds/ deletes. Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS)'s expected deletion is a result of the demerger of TY Holdings (363280 KS) in September which has significantly lowered its market cap.Krafton Inc (1486402D KS)'s estimated market cap of US$26-30bn would see it included in the index as a Fast Entry if it lists before the end of April which would put Sebang Global Battery (004490 KS) at risk of deletion. If Krafton lists by end January/ beginning February (seems unlikely at this point in time), it could be included in the KOSPI 200 in March. If it lists after mid Feb but before end April, Krafton could be included in the index at the June review.Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS) has increased in price sharply over the last month and we would wait for the price to stabilize a bit before buying into the stock.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: IPO Fast Entry & End of Short Sell Ban Will Shake Things Up

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Core Asia Buy Targets

Our most bullish stance in Asia has been in core Asia. Tactically, we are seeing rally exhaustion signs. Take profit and protection levels noted...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Long and Short 2021 Kick Off

As the USD moves into oversold territory we are on the hunt for short hedges in Asia and present short positions into strength this week. Core Asia...

Thomas Schroeder

Majority Shareholder Transfer Tax Play: Trade KOSDAQ 150 ETF

This insight is about the trade approach using KOSDAQ 150 ETFs to capitalize on the majority shareholder transfer tax dynamic on the ex-dividend date.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Dividend Situation Creates a Huge Futures Basis: Trade Approach to Capitalize on It

Samsung's year-end dividend situation creates a huge futures basis. This insight examines how to capitalize on this situation.

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: IPO Fast Entry & End of Short Sell Ban Will Shake Things Up

We just just one addition and deletion to the KOSPI200 index in the June 2021 review. The end of the short sell ban in March will bring a lot more...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)