Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Global indexes and macro assets.</li>
<li>In-Depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price may unfold.</li>
<li>We highlight strong seasonal trends in April, with all markets typically rising and realized vol typically coming in below implied.</li>
</ul>


Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Global indexes and macro assets.
In-Depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price may unfold.
We highlight strong seasonal trends in April, with all markets typically rising and realized vol typically coming in below implied.


April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.</li>
<li>Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.</li>
<li>Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.</li>
</ul>


The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.


EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>It has been a decent year for the index rebalance strategy, though there have been some big hiccups along the way.</li>
<li>Forecasting the index changes and impacts has been important, but timing (especially momentum/value regime changes) and hedge selection have also been major factors affecting the returns of the strategy.</li>
<li>As passive AUM continues to increase, we expect focus on the strategy to continue in 2025 with market players taking different approaches to trading the potential and announced index changes.</li>
</ul>


It has been a decent year for the index rebalance strategy, though there have been some big hiccups along the way.
Forecasting the index changes and impacts has been important, but timing (especially momentum/value regime changes) and hedge selection have also been major factors affecting the returns of the strategy.
As passive AUM continues to increase, we expect focus on the strategy to continue in 2025 with market players taking different approaches to trading the potential and announced index changes.


How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed in 2024?

<ul>
<li>Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin</li>
<li>Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.</li>
<li>Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.</li>
</ul>


Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today's opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin
Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.
Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President's crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals

Analysis of price and volatility metrics across global indexes and macro assets, showing strong seasonal trends in April with markets rising and...

John Ley

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed in 2024?

The index rebalance strategy has performed reasonably well this year. Accurate forecasting of index changes and optimal hedge selection have played...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals

​Analysis of price and volatility metrics across global indexes and macro assets, showing strong seasonal trends in April with markets rising and...

John Ley

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

​Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed in 2024?

The index rebalance strategy has performed reasonably well this year. Accurate forecasting of index changes and optimal hedge selection have played...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - From Nifty 50 to Bitcoin, Plus BTC-Bond Special

​Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

​The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

Analysis of price and volatility metrics across global indexes and macro assets, showing strong seasonal trends in April with markets rising and...

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Opportunities in Nifty 50 and Bitcoin options due to bullish trends and positive sentiment. Global volatility overview of 15+ markets and...

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...