Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Implied volatility rose across most markets in October, and a continuing trend in vol premium warrants attention.  </li>
<li>November has historically produced strong price returns and positive volatility premiums across global markets.</li>
<li>Implied volatility displays clustering across markets, with two distinct groupings beginning to take shape.</li>
</ul>


Implied volatility rose across most markets in October, and a continuing trend in vol premium warrants attention.  
November has historically produced strong price returns and positive volatility premiums across global markets.
Implied volatility displays clustering across markets, with two distinct groupings beginning to take shape.


Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, there could be 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>There may not be any intra-review changes following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-heavy-industries-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-mipo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2755:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Mipo</a> merger due to timing and also due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics</a>' spinoff being added to the index.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> over the last few months and in the short-term too.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, there could be 7 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in December.
There may not be any intra-review changes following the Hyundai Heavy Industries/ Hyundai Mipo merger due to timing and also due to Samsung Biologics' spinoff being added to the index.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the KOSPI2 INDEX over the last few months and in the short-term too.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes a Side for December

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.</li>
<li>Between the US Stocks we track, all seems to have room to rally, short-term, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon (AMZN US)</a> is actually oversold (buy opportunity). </li>
<li>The Asian Stocks we track instead show a less homogeneous picture, but several Asian stocks are incredibly overbought. Same as Gold. 
</li>
</ul>


A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
Between the US Stocks we track, all seems to have room to rally, short-term, and Amazon (AMZN US) is actually oversold (buy opportunity). 
The Asian Stocks we track instead show a less homogeneous picture, but several Asian stocks are incredibly overbought. Same as Gold. 



Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?

<ul>
<li>October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. </li>
<li>Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.</li>
<li>Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. 
Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.
Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.


Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
<li>
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

Rising volatility and firm seasonal patterns define November’s setup, though shifts in vol premium suggest a more fragile market backdrop.

John Ley

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes a Side for December

If the merger offsets the spinoff, there could be 7 index changes in Dec. Passive impact on the stock varies between 0.7-21x ADV. Adds have...

Brian Freitas

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?

Probabilistic tactical models show Asian stocks and Gold are incredibly overbought if compared to US stocks: the latter have still room to rally...

Nico Rosti

Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Despite October’s reputation for turmoil, history points to gains, though volatility signals have begun to diverge underscoring possible increasing...

John Ley

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

Rising volatility and firm seasonal patterns define November’s setup, though shifts in vol premium suggest a more fragile market backdrop.

John Ley

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes a Side for December

If the merger offsets the spinoff, there could be 7 index changes in Dec. Passive impact on the stock varies between 0.7-21x ADV. Adds have...

Brian Freitas

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?

​Probabilistic tactical models show Asian stocks and Gold are incredibly overbought if compared to US stocks: the latter have still room to rally...

Nico Rosti

Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Despite October’s reputation for turmoil, history points to gains, though volatility signals have begun to diverge underscoring possible increasing...

John Ley

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Probabilistic tactical models show Asian stocks and Gold are incredibly overbought if compared to US stocks: the latter have still room to rally...