IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

FineToday Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP)</a>, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the investment thesis in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/finetoday-holdings-420a-jp-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:204929" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings (420A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
I previously discussed the investment thesis in FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.


FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a>, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.  </li>
<li>FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage. </li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.  
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.
The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage. 


FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Murakami <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100WQFH.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2025-09-24T07%3A41%3A14Z&amp;se=2030-09-24T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=pBNXCLzc2M2noizmBySiKIgGaALs0RzHJHz3GWVI7jw%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 7.14% ownership ratio in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a>. The average buy-in price of JPY2,070.73 per share is 5.6% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.</li>
<li>Murakami undoubtedly shares Hibiki’s concerns. On 15 September, Hibiki issued an open letter questioning the rationale behind the Board's recommendation of a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO. </li>
<li>With the emergence of Murakami, CVC and the founding family’s options narrow. The need for satisfaction of the precondition buys time, but a bump seems inevitable. </li>
</ul>


Murakami reported a 7.14% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,070.73 per share is 5.6% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
Murakami undoubtedly shares Hibiki’s concerns. On 15 September, Hibiki issued an open letter questioning the rationale behind the Board's recommendation of a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO. 
With the emergence of Murakami, CVC and the founding family’s options narrow. The need for satisfaction of the precondition buys time, but a bump seems inevitable. 


Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

<ul>
<li>On 15 September, Hibiki Path Advisors issued an <a href="https://www.hibiki-path-advisors.com/en/engagement/post-5029/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">open letter</a> questioning the rationale for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> Board to recommend a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960 per share. </li>
<li>Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are not.</li>
<li>CVC's initial approach will wait for precondition satisfaction and secure additional irrevocables. However, this is a stopgap measure, and a bump is likely to occur.</li>
</ul>


On 15 September, Hibiki Path Advisors issued an open letter questioning the rationale for the Mandom Corp (4917 JP) Board to recommend a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960 per share. 
Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are not.
CVC's initial approach will wait for precondition satisfaction and secure additional irrevocables. However, this is a stopgap measure, and a bump is likely to occur.


Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. </li>
<li>The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.  </li>
</ul>



Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.
The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.  


Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO

Japan

KOSE Corporation manufactures, retails, and exports cosmetics including make up, skin care, and hair care products.  The Company sells its products in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Malaysia.

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Kose Corp (4922 JP)

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

FineToday, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

The tender offer is open from September 26 to November 10 (30 business days). The Board supports the offer and recommends that shareholders tender...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price

Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO

The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.

Arun George

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