Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
  <li>Kose possesses a strong, multi-tiered brand portfolio, particularly in the high-prestige and prestige skincare segments, which underpins its high gross margins. Key brands like DECORTÉ and SEKKISEI are well-regarded for their quality and science-led formulations.</li>
  <li>Financial performance is under pressure, characterized by volatile net income, negative free cash flow in recent years, and a concerning long-term negative growth trend in net income, EPS, and market capitalization despite modest revenue growth.</li>
  <li>The company's forward strategy, 'Vision for Lifelong Beauty Partner – Milestone2030,' focuses on global expansion, aiming for over 50% of sales from overseas by 2030, and a transition to a holding company structure to enhance competitiveness and governance.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Kose possesses a strong, multi-tiered brand portfolio, particularly in the high-prestige and prestige skincare segments, which underpins its high gross margins. Key brands like DECORTÉ and SEKKISEI are well-regarded for their quality and science-led formulations.
  Financial performance is under pressure, characterized by volatile net income, negative free cash flow in recent years, and a concerning long-term negative growth trend in net income, EPS, and market capitalization despite modest revenue growth.
  The company's forward strategy, 'Vision for Lifelong Beauty Partner – Milestone2030,' focuses on global expansion, aiming for over 50% of sales from overseas by 2030, and a transition to a holding company structure to enhance competitiveness and governance.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.</li>
<li>Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.</li>
<li>The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.</li>
</ul>


China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.
Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.
The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.


Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

<ul>
<li>Global renewable continue to outperform, although this is yet to be seen in Japan related names.</li>
<li>Very little read from the US with the market firmly in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed.</li>
<li>Kose sell-side meeting yesterday points to plans for global growth despite few specifics released for its new MTP set to be released in October.</li>
</ul>


Global renewable continue to outperform, although this is yet to be seen in Japan related names.
Very little read from the US with the market firmly in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed.
Kose sell-side meeting yesterday points to plans for global growth despite few specifics released for its new MTP set to be released in October.


Japan Morning Connection: Kose Aims for Global Growth

<ul>
<li>NVDA disappoints market expectations and trades -7% after-market, setting a very weak tone for Japanese SPE and tech related names to start.</li>
<li>The bad news for 4911 Shiseido continues, with the tone out of a small sell-side meeting held yesterday after-market pointed to further earnings downside.</li>
<li>Expect a continued rotation into value and domestic defensives as the market pivots away from AI/tech with plenty of room for profit taking after the recent rebound.</li>
</ul>


NVDA disappoints market expectations and trades -7% after-market, setting a very weak tone for Japanese SPE and tech related names to start.
The bad news for 4911 Shiseido continues, with the tone out of a small sell-side meeting held yesterday after-market pointed to further earnings downside.
Expect a continued rotation into value and domestic defensives as the market pivots away from AI/tech with plenty of room for profit taking after the recent rebound.


Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

Japan

KOSE Corporation manufactures, retails, and exports cosmetics including make up, skin care, and hair care products.  The Company sells its products in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Malaysia.

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Kose Corp (4922 JP)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Primer: Kose Corp (4922 JP) - Aug 2026

Kose possesses a strong, multi-tiered brand portfolio, particularly in the high-prestige and prestige skincare segments, which underpins its...

αSK Primers

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Kose Aims for Global Growth

Global renewable sector continues to outperform, but Japan is lagging behind. US market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting. Kose plans for...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

NVDA disappoints market, setting weak tone for Japanese tech names. Shiseido faces further earnings downside. Market pivots to value and domestic...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

Primer: Kose Corp (4922 JP) - Aug 2026

Kose possesses a strong, multi-tiered brand portfolio, particularly in the high-prestige and prestige skincare segments, which underpins its...

αSK Primers

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

​Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Kose Aims for Global Growth

​Global renewable sector continues to outperform, but Japan is lagging behind. US market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting. Kose plans for...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

​NVDA disappoints market, setting weak tone for Japanese tech names. Shiseido faces further earnings downside. Market pivots to value and domestic...

Andrew Jackson

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Global renewable sector continues to outperform, but Japan is lagging behind. US market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting. Kose plans for...

NVDA disappoints market, setting weak tone for Japanese tech names. Shiseido faces further earnings downside. Market pivots to value and domestic...