Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>What’s Original?</h3>
In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.

What’s Original?
In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/943/original/2020-02-01_07-00-20.png?1580599138" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115943"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/944/original/2020-02-02_08-38-57.png?1580600364" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115944"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more apparent last Friday. On the second-busiest day of this quarter's 'calendar', there were 407 results and 114 forecasts or revisions announcements. The Results Score declined by nine basis points to 0.68, the lowest since April 2017 while the Forecast/Revision Score fell by 15bps and was last this low in December 2016. The 'upside gap' between the market and both Scores is still larger than at any time since our data series commenced and needs to close further. The Bank of Japan bought ETFs on three days last week and will be back in action on Monday.<hr>• SECTOR TIMELINE •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/946/original/2020-02-02_09-01-27.png?1580601710" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115946"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now emerging.  The former are lead by Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Machinery, Technology Hardware, and Electrical Equipment, with the losers being Transportation, Consumer Services, Healthcare, Utilities and Building Materials.  Of the top ten positive changes in all-cap Results Score on Friday, eight were in the financial sectors. A shift in earnings momentum leadership from consumer to finance and technology-related Sectors is in train.

Source • Japan Analytics30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more apparent last Friday. On the second-busiest day of this quarter's 'calendar', there were 407 results and 114 forecasts or revisions announcements. The Results Score declined by nine basis points to 0.68, the lowest since April 2017 while the Forecast/Revision Score fell by 15bps and was last this low in December 2016. The 'upside gap' between the market and both Scores is still larger than at any time since our data series commenced and needs to close further. The Bank of Japan bought ETFs on three days last week and will be back in action on Monday.• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now emerging.  The former are lead by Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Machinery, Technology Hardware, and Electrical Equipment, with the losers being Transportation, Consumer Services, Healthcare, Utilities and Building Materials.  Of the top ten positive changes in all-cap Results Score on Friday, eight were in the financial sectors. A shift in earnings momentum leadership from consumer to finance and technology-related Sectors is in train.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

After a lengthy delay, Japan has increased its consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The tax hike came into effect from 1st of October 2019. The government plans to use the additional revenues from the consumption tax increase to fund social welfare programs and pay down public debt. However, the consumption tax hike is expected to have a negative impact on consumer spending. To counter this, the government has introduced certain measures such as exempting certain food items and takeout orders at restaurants from the tax hike and also started giving rebates for some purchases made using electronic payments.Below we look at the official retail spending statistics to understand the immediate impact of the consumption tax hike on different sectors/industries.

After a lengthy delay, Japan has increased its consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The tax hike came into effect from 1st of October 2019. The government plans to use the additional revenues from the consumption tax increase to fund social welfare programs and pay down public debt. However, the consumption tax hike is expected to have a negative impact on consumer spending. To counter this, the government has introduced certain measures such as exempting certain food items and takeout orders at restaurants from the tax hike and also started giving rebates for some purchases made using electronic payments.Below we look at the official retail spending statistics to understand the immediate impact of the consumption tax hike on different sectors/industries.

Japan Consumption Tax Hike: The Impact on Convenience Stores and Cosmetics

Negative Shiseido, Kose and Pola OrbisWe analysed the top five Japanese cosmetics companies predominantly focusing on fundamental investment research principles. And based on our analysis we are negative on Shiseido, Kose and Pola Orbis, with the last two names being our top picks to short. We consider Shiseido to be short term neutral but believe the name is over-owned and growth deceleration exposes the name to significant downside risk from flows.Our long-term views on individual companies are mainly based on fundamental investment research principles and we have used POS data to track any changes in the trends behind our fundamentals based long term view. The frequency of POS data is much higher than traditional IR data and POS also breaks the data into extremely granular levels, meaning the information derived from POS is far more than what the traditional IR provides. Therefore, using POS we have developed systems to monitor the changes in our investment thesis at micro levels and also at a much higher frequency. Furthermore, we have also used POS data to forecast the company performance in its upcoming earnings. Lastly, the analysis of POS data helps us mitigate any surprises and potentially turn trend reversals to our advantage.We provide our detailed views on Shiseido, Kose and Pola Orbis below.

Negative Shiseido, Kose and Pola OrbisWe analysed the top five Japanese cosmetics companies predominantly focusing on fundamental investment research principles. And based on our analysis we are negative on Shiseido, Kose and Pola Orbis, with the last two names being our top picks to short. We consider Shiseido to be short term neutral but believe the name is over-owned and growth deceleration exposes the name to significant downside risk from flows.Our long-term views on individual companies are mainly based on fundamental investment research principles and we have used POS data to track any changes in the trends behind our fundamentals based long term view. The frequency of POS data is much higher than traditional IR data and POS also breaks the data into extremely granular levels, meaning the information derived from POS is far more than what the traditional IR provides. Therefore, using POS we have developed systems to monitor the changes in our investment thesis at micro levels and also at a much higher frequency. Furthermore, we have also used POS data to forecast the company performance in its upcoming earnings. Lastly, the analysis of POS data helps us mitigate any surprises and potentially turn trend reversals to our advantage.We provide our detailed views on Shiseido, Kose and Pola Orbis below.

Alternative Data - An Evolving Weapon for Active Managers (Shiseido, Kose, Pola Orbis)

Japan

KOSE Corporation manufactures, retails, and exports cosmetics including make up, skin care, and hair care products.  The Company sells its products in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Malaysia.

Price Gauge
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Kose Corp (4922 JP)

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Consumption Tax Hike: The Impact on Convenience Stores and Cosmetics

After a lengthy delay, Japan has increased its consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The tax hike came into effect from 1st of October 2019. The...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Alternative Data - An Evolving Weapon for Active Managers (Shiseido, Kose, Pola Orbis)

Negative Shiseido, Kose and Pola OrbisWe analysed the top five Japanese cosmetics companies predominantly focusing on fundamental investment...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)