Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Oct 2026)

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>The DGGI arrested <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fino-payments-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35042:1" rel="noopener">Fino Payments Bank Ltd (FINOPB IN)</a> CEO Rishi Gupta, linked with an alleged INR 30 bn GST evasion involving shell entities linked to banned online gaming platforms.</li>
<li>Fino maintains the investigation pertains solely to third-party programme managers and merchants, asserting no operational or GST compliance lapses and expecting no financial liability.</li>
<li>While the bank maintains conversion timelines remain intact, the episode may bring it strong regulatory headwinds from the RBI, potentially delaying the conversion to Small Finance Bank.</li>
</ul>


The DGGI arrested Fino Payments Bank Ltd (FINOPB IN) CEO Rishi Gupta, linked with an alleged INR 30 bn GST evasion involving shell entities linked to banned online gaming platforms.
Fino maintains the investigation pertains solely to third-party programme managers and merchants, asserting no operational or GST compliance lapses and expecting no financial liability.
While the bank maintains conversion timelines remain intact, the episode may bring it strong regulatory headwinds from the RBI, potentially delaying the conversion to Small Finance Bank.


Fino Payments Bank- SFB Dream Faces a Speed Breaker?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex intensity was partly offset by higher growth on both sides of the balance sheet</li><li>Healthy loan growth (16% YoY) was driven by mortgages, business banking, SME segments</li><li>Deposit growth (~14% YoY) was strong with CASA ratio at 41.3% (-101bps QoQ) and softer than usual traction in CA balances</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex intensity was partly offset by higher growth on both sides of the balance sheetHealthy loan growth (16% YoY) was driven by mortgages, business banking, SME segmentsDeposit growth (~14% YoY) was strong with CASA ratio at 41.3% (-101bps QoQ) and softer than usual traction in CA balancesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement...

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Petroleum, Adani Enterprises, GMR Airports.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Petroleum, Adani Enterprises, GMR Airports.


MS-India Index Earning Revision (Sep): SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank...

India

Kotak Mahindra Bank is an Indian banking and financial services company that offers a comprehensive range of banking products and financial services to corporate and retail customers. These services include personal finance, investment banking, life insurance, wealth management, consumer banking, commercial banking, and treasury operations. The company provides deposit accounts, various loans, credit and debit cards, mutual funds, and insurance plans. Headquartered in Mumbai, India, the company was founded in 1985 as Kotak Mahindra Finance Limited and received its banking license in 2003.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Oct 2026)

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Fino Payments Bank- SFB Dream Faces a Speed Breaker?

DGGI arrests Fino's CEO for alleged INR 30 bn GST evasion linked to banned online gaming platforms, bank denies operational lapses but may face...

Nitin Mangal

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement...

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex...

HDFC Securities

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Sep): SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank...

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex intensity

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Oct 2026)

​Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Fino Payments Bank- SFB Dream Faces a Speed Breaker?

​DGGI arrests Fino's CEO for alleged INR 30 bn GST evasion linked to banned online gaming platforms, bank denies operational lapses but may face...

Nitin Mangal

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement...

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex...

HDFC Securities

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Sep): SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank...

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) Q3FY26 earnings were below estimates, as flattish margins, soft traction in fee income, and relatively high opex intensity

HDFC Securities

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

DGGI arrests Fino's CEO for alleged INR 30 bn GST evasion linked to banned online gaming platforms, bank denies operational lapses but may face...