Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside resistance, the EM vs. EAFE ratio is bullishly inflecting, and the US dollar (DXY) exhibits signs of breaking down. Russia (RTS), Taiwan (TAIEX), and Brazil (Bovespa) are deserving of overweights in the EM realm, though China (MSCI China) appears to be bottoming as well -- add exposure. EM Sectors: Technology and Consumer Discretionary are leadership -- overweight. Communications is the next most attractive EM Sector thanks largely to improvement in Tencent (700-HK) -- add exposure. Lastly, Materials exhibits early signs of potential price and RS bottoms -- add selective exposure

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside resistance, the EM vs. EAFE ratio is bullishly inflecting, and the US dollar (DXY) exhibits signs of breaking down. Russia (RTS), Taiwan (TAIEX), and Brazil (Bovespa) are deserving of overweights in the EM realm, though China (MSCI China) appears to be bottoming as well -- add exposure. EM Sectors: Technology and Consumer Discretionary are leadership -- overweight. Communications is the next most attractive EM Sector thanks largely to improvement in Tencent (700-HK) -- add exposure. Lastly, Materials exhibits early signs of potential price and RS bottoms -- add selective exposure

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

As the NIFTY index approaches new highs this week, we thought it useful to provide a thorough breakdown of India positioning among global emerging market managers.  <ul>
<li>India is the largest overweight among EM fund managers, yet the overweight has drifted lower since 2015</li>
<li>EM managers have been selling into strength.  India has seen the largest outflows among all countries since 2015</li>
<li>Confidence at an all-time low in Auto stocks.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> has seen significant investor flight</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC IN)</a> have seen ownership rise to record levels.  </li>
</ul>

As the NIFTY index approaches new highs this week, we thought it useful to provide a thorough breakdown of India positioning among global emerging market managers.  
India is the largest overweight among EM fund managers, yet the overweight has drifted lower since 2015
EM managers have been selling into strength.  India has seen the largest outflows among all countries since 2015
Confidence at an all-time low in Auto stocks.   Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) has seen significant investor flight

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC IN) have seen ownership rise to record levels.  


India:  Where Are We Now? A GEM Manager Perspective

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finserv-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5669:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finserv-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5669:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a>  targets a 5% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) and short Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)  targets a 5% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) Vs Kotak Mahindra (KMB IN): Fresh 2-Sigma Dislocation in Indian Financials

In this report, we analyse Asia Ex-Japan fund positioning across the key Asian industry groups.  The analysis measures current sentiment across all Asian industry groups by calculating today's positioning levels in relation to historical levels.  We then overlay short term fund activity data in order to detect reversals or confirmations of longer-term trends.For this analysis, we analyse the holdings of 102 actively managed mutual funds benchmarked to the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index. The current fund sample covers a combined AUM of $70bn.

In this report, we analyse Asia Ex-Japan fund positioning across the key Asian industry groups.  The analysis measures current sentiment across all Asian industry groups by calculating today's positioning levels in relation to historical levels.  We then overlay short term fund activity data in order to detect reversals or confirmations of longer-term trends.For this analysis, we analyse the holdings of 102 actively managed mutual funds benchmarked to the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index. The current fund sample covers a combined AUM of $70bn.

Focus Industries for Asia Ex-Japan Fund Managers

Adding to last week’s concerns reiterated above, additional developments which have further dampened our overall outlook include a breakdown in the global Discretionary vs. Staples ratio, price and RS deterioration for mainland China, Germany, and European Technology, and new lows in the NASDAQ Global Automobile index. Aside from Germany, other major indexes remain above support in Europe/UK and Japan.  We highlight a number of attractive opportunities in “defensive” Financials including electronic exchanges/markets, insurance, commercial/consumer financing, and select asset managers.

Adding to last week’s concerns reiterated above, additional developments which have further dampened our overall outlook include a breakdown in the global Discretionary vs. Staples ratio, price and RS deterioration for mainland China, Germany, and European Technology, and new lows in the NASDAQ Global Automobile index. Aside from Germany, other major indexes remain above support in Europe/UK and Japan.  We highlight a number of attractive opportunities in “defensive” Financials including electronic exchanges/markets, insurance, commercial/consumer financing, and select asset managers.

Global Equity Strategy: More Cracks Begin to Show

India

Kotak Mahindra Bank is an Indian banking and financial services company that offers a comprehensive range of banking products and financial services to corporate and retail customers. These services include personal finance, investment banking, life insurance, wealth management, consumer banking, commercial banking, and treasury operations. The company provides deposit accounts, various loans, credit and debit cards, mutual funds, and insurance plans. Headquartered in Mumbai, India, the company was founded in 1985 as Kotak Mahindra Finance Limited and received its banking license in 2003.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)

Shift Exposure From EAFE to EM

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside...

Vermilion Research

India: Where Are We Now? A GEM Manager Perspective

As the NIFTY index approaches new highs this week, we thought it useful to provide a thorough breakdown of India positioning among global emerging...

Steven Holden

Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) Vs Kotak Mahindra (KMB IN): Fresh 2-Sigma Dislocation in Indian Financials

Fresh pair trade opportunity following a two-sigma dislocation in Indian financials. Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion...

Gaudenz Schneider

Focus Industries for Asia Ex-Japan Fund Managers

In this report, we analyse Asia Ex-Japan fund positioning across the key Asian industry groups. The analysis measures current sentiment across all...

Steven Holden

Global Equity Strategy: More Cracks Begin to Show

Adding to last week’s concerns reiterated above, additional developments which have further dampened our overall outlook include a breakdown in the...

Vermilion Research

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