External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 7%/0% YoY and -2%/-8% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~229 stocks)</li><li>Overall earnings were adversely skewed by the weak performance of OMCs, hence ex-OMCs, revenue/PAT grew by 9%/13% YoY and -2%/-5% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 7%/0% YoY and -2%/-8% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~229 stocks)Overall earnings were adversely skewed by the weak performance of OMCs, hence ex-OMCs, revenue/PAT grew by 9%/13% YoY and -2%/-5% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra</li>
<li>UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability </li>
<li>Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low</li>
</ul>


Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability 
Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low


Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Credit metrics continue to improve, with NPLs down to INR404bn in 1Q25 from INR458bn YoY and from INR407bn QoQ</li>
<li>Net loan growth continues to rise by about INR1tr each quarter, with net loans at INR9,465bn in 1Q25 up from INR8,554bn YoY and INR9,318bn QoQ</li>
<li>There are pressures on costs and margins, so the story is not all perfect, with NIM pressure potentially to reverse as LDR expands</li>
</ul>


Credit metrics continue to improve, with NPLs down to INR404bn in 1Q25 from INR458bn YoY and from INR407bn QoQ
Net loan growth continues to rise by about INR1tr each quarter, with net loans at INR9,465bn in 1Q25 up from INR8,554bn YoY and INR9,318bn QoQ
There are pressures on costs and margins, so the story is not all perfect, with NIM pressure potentially to reverse as LDR expands


Canara Bank - Bad Debt Charges Down in the Quarter, Net Loan Growth Nearly INR1tr YoY in 1Q25

<ul>
<li>Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick five longs and two shorts as our conviction calls; we add country-based equity risk premia to our screening process</li>
<li>Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, CIMB Group from Malaysia, Bradesco from Brazil and CCB from China; four of these are value picks</li>
<li>Our sells are Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank from India, both richly valued larger cap banks that have benefited from past economic and political tailwinds with headwinds now emerging</li>
</ul>


Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick five longs and two shorts as our conviction calls; we add country-based equity risk premia to our screening process
Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, CIMB Group from Malaysia, Bradesco from Brazil and CCB from China; four of these are value picks
Our sells are Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank from India, both richly valued larger cap banks that have benefited from past economic and political tailwinds with headwinds now emerging


GEM Banks; Focus on Value Attributes and Returns Recovery Potential

<ul><li>Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the divestment of a stake in its general insurance subsidiary</li><li>Healthy loan growth (~19% YoY) was offset by a sharp decline in margins (26bps QoQ) and elevated credit costs (55bps annualised)</li><li>Deposit growth was muted (-0.3% QoQ) with a drop in current account balances and softer momentum in the active money pool (+2% QoQ), as the CASA ratio moderated further (43.4%, -210bps QoQ)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the divestment of a stake in its general insurance subsidiaryHealthy loan growth (~19% YoY) was offset by a sharp decline in margins (26bps QoQ) and elevated credit costs (55bps annualised)Deposit growth was muted (-0.3% QoQ) with a drop in current account balances and softer momentum in the active money pool (+2% QoQ), as the CASA ratio moderated further (43.4%, -210bps QoQ)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Indian Hotels, RBL Bank

India

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies

HDFC Securities

Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

Positive focus on smaller cap, value based Indian banks Bandhan, Baroda, and UBI; negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra due to...

Victor Galliano

Canara Bank - Bad Debt Charges Down in the Quarter, Net Loan Growth Nearly INR1tr YoY in 1Q25

Canara Bank continues to see improvements in credit metrics. Less focus on MSMEs and more on retail can support this. LDR contract QoQ may reverse...

Daniel Tabbush

GEM Banks; Focus on Value Attributes and Returns Recovery Potential

Top picks for bigger cap GEM banks include Bank Mandiri, Hana Financial, CIMB Group, Bradesco, and CCB, while Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank...

Victor Galliano

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Indian Hotels, RBL Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the...

HDFC Securities

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Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies

HDFC Securities

Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

​Positive focus on smaller cap, value based Indian banks Bandhan, Baroda, and UBI; negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra due to...

Victor Galliano

Canara Bank - Bad Debt Charges Down in the Quarter, Net Loan Growth Nearly INR1tr YoY in 1Q25

Canara Bank continues to see improvements in credit metrics. Less focus on MSMEs and more on retail can support this. LDR contract QoQ may reverse...

Daniel Tabbush

GEM Banks; Focus on Value Attributes and Returns Recovery Potential

​Top picks for bigger cap GEM banks include Bank Mandiri, Hana Financial, CIMB Group, Bradesco, and CCB, while Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank...

Victor Galliano

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Indian Hotels, RBL Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were in line with estimates barring a one-off gain of INR27bn (net of tax) from the...

HDFC Securities

Positive focus on smaller cap, value based Indian banks Bandhan, Baroda, and UBI; negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra due to...

Top picks for bigger cap GEM banks include Bank Mandiri, Hana Financial, CIMB Group, Bradesco, and CCB, while Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank...