Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.</li>
<li>Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.</li>
<li>Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.</li>
</ul>


Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.
Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.
Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.


EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap:    Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Since the end of September the Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.</li>
<li>Vast majority of option trading is in short dated expiries. The largest volume day of the week saw 99% of trading in expires &lt;= Jan 09</li>
<li>Implied vols were quiet but there was some increased tilt to skew making out-of-the-money Puts slightly more expensive.</li>
</ul>


Since the end of September the Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.
Vast majority of option trading is in short dated expiries. The largest volume day of the week saw 99% of trading in expires &lt;= Jan 09
Implied vols were quiet but there was some increased tilt to skew making out-of-the-money Puts slightly more expensive.


EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Strong dollar not seen as a problem for the US or the Fed, more concerning for the rest of the world</li><li>Unlikely to see coordinated global intervention due to high hurdles and lack of exceptional circumstances</li><li>Dollar CNY stability due to PBOC holding it down, may welcome cooling pressures on the currency from Japan and Korea verbal interventions</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Strong dollar not seen as a problem for the US or the Fed, more concerning for the rest of the worldUnlikely to see coordinated global intervention due to high hurdles and lack of exceptional circumstancesDollar CNY stability due to PBOC holding it down, may welcome cooling pressures on the currency from Japan and Korea verbal interventionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: A Strong Dollar Is Not a US Problem

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.</li><li>We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.</li><li>Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.

<ul><li>Welcome to the second research piece in our “Business Cycle Week”.</li><li>In this edition of the series on the business cycle, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets.</li><li>Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or is it just a saying?</li></ul>

Welcome to the second research piece in our “Business Cycle Week”.In this edition of the series on the business cycle, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets.Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or is it just a saying?

FX Watch: Have FX Markets Sniffed out an Upcoming Rebound?

South Korea

The South Korean won is the official currency of The Republic of Korea (South Korea). 

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KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

The Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.

John Ley

Global FX: A Strong Dollar Is Not a US Problem

The strong dollar is not a major concern for the US or the Federal Reserve, but could pose challenges for the rest of the world, making coordinated...

At Any Rate

FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals

We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the...

Steno Research

FX Watch: Have FX Markets Sniffed out an Upcoming Rebound?

In this edition, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets. Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or...

Steno Research

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EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

​Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

The Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.

John Ley

Global FX: A Strong Dollar Is Not a US Problem

The strong dollar is not a major concern for the US or the Federal Reserve, but could pose challenges for the rest of the world, making coordinated...

At Any Rate

FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals

We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the...

Steno Research

FX Watch: Have FX Markets Sniffed out an Upcoming Rebound?

In this edition, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets. Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or...

Steno Research

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...