Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We turn bullish on Kubota. Macro indicators point to stabilization </li>
<li>Management guidance for 2023 surprised the market, but we think it is realistic</li>
<li>We think that quarterly results will be a catalyst to convince investors that profitability is improving</li>
</ul>


We turn bullish on Kubota. Macro indicators point to stabilization 
Management guidance for 2023 surprised the market, but we think it is realistic
We think that quarterly results will be a catalyst to convince investors that profitability is improving


Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Escorts Kubota Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN)</a> 's domestic market share as of FY22 stood at 10.3 % vs 12% in FY20 against the aspiration of 15% for FY22. </li>
<li>Our interactions with various dealers across key northern and eastern states suggest caution and structural inability to regain market share loss.</li>
<li>Post equity infusion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kubota-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12926:1" rel="noopener">Kubota Corp (6326 JP)</a> is probably in for more surprises than what it might have initially hoped for. </li>
</ul>



Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) 's domestic market share as of FY22 stood at 10.3 % vs 12% in FY20 against the aspiration of 15% for FY22. 
Our interactions with various dealers across key northern and eastern states suggest caution and structural inability to regain market share loss.
Post equity infusion, Kubota Corp (6326 JP) is probably in for more surprises than what it might have initially hoped for. 


Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) | Alarming Allegations by Dealers

<ul>
<li>Kubota was a key beneficiary of stay-at-home demand in the US over the past two years </li>
<li>The pull-forward in demand is now normalising, while the macro environment has also turned more difficult  </li>
<li>We think Kubota will miss full year analyst numbers and expect the stock to trade lower to 1.2x book </li>
</ul>


Kubota was a key beneficiary of stay-at-home demand in the US over the past two years 
The pull-forward in demand is now normalising, while the macro environment has also turned more difficult  
We think Kubota will miss full year analyst numbers and expect the stock to trade lower to 1.2x book 


Kubota (6326) | Small Tractors...big Problem

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX Free-Float Rebalance for July will be executed tomorrow at the close. </li>
<li>There should be about US$3.5bn to trade one-way with 150+ names down-weighted, 36 names up-weighted, and one inclusion - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The trade has performed well so far, and excess volume appears limited in most cases. It appears uncrowded.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX Free-Float Rebalance for July will be executed tomorrow at the close. 
There should be about US$3.5bn to trade one-way with 150+ names down-weighted, 36 names up-weighted, and one inclusion - Mercari Inc (4385 JP).
The trade has performed well so far, and excess volume appears limited in most cases. It appears uncrowded.


TOPIX July Rebalance: Good Performance, Low Progression, Should Trade Right Way

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Berkshire appears set to exit <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a></strong> partially or in full. But why signal to market well in advance?</li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a></strong>'s buyback should be impactful. They could do another one afterwards as they have lots of cash. This is a raging buy. Buy now. With both hands.</li>
<li>The BOJ was expected to change its ETF allocations. It stopped buying Nikkei 225 and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs. As the world moves more to passive, expect float to decrease.</li>
</ul>


Berkshire appears set to exit BYD (1211 HK) partially or in full. But why signal to market well in advance?

United Tractors (UNTR IJ)'s buyback should be impactful. They could do another one afterwards as they have lots of cash. This is a raging buy. Buy now. With both hands.
The BOJ was expected to change its ETF allocations. It stopped buying Nikkei 225 and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs. As the world moves more to passive, expect float to decrease.


Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore

Japan

KUBOTA CORPORATION manufactures industrial machinery, farm machinery, and fluid piping systems.  The Company's products include ductile iron pipes, engines, tractors, combine harvesters, reaper binders, rice planters, and excavators.  Kubota also produces forged iron products, housing equipment, and environmental control plants.

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Kubota Corp (6326 JP)

Kubota (6326) | Signs of Stability

We turn bullish on Kubota's stock price. We do not share the market's view that FY23 guidance is optimistic. We think inventory restock, improved...

Mark Chadwick

Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) | Alarming Allegations by Dealers

Our dealer interactions point to structural issues at ESCORTS warranting attention. Regaining lost market share may not be that easy.

Pranav Bhavsar

Kubota (6326) | Small Tractors...big Problem

Kubota was a key beneficiary of stay-at-home demand in the US over the past two years. We believe sales in the US have started to normalise and the...

Mark Chadwick

TOPIX July Rebalance: Good Performance, Low Progression, Should Trade Right Way

The JULY TOPIX FFW Rebalance is tomorrow (28 July) at the close. It is $3.5bn one-way and the top 10 sells are all quite large. Excellent LOC...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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