Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices were rangebound and maintained at over 100 USD/ton. In the last four years, they have been in a 95-130 USD/ton range. </li>
<li>China TSF (Total Social Financing) disappointed the street with 1.4 trillion RMB (-24% YoY), compared to the street estimates of &gt;1.5 trillion RMB.</li>
<li>We believe that more significant lending numbers would catalyze the iron ore price, but till then, iron prices will remain stagnant at the 100 USD/ton level. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices were rangebound and maintained at over 100 USD/ton. In the last four years, they have been in a 95-130 USD/ton range. 
China TSF (Total Social Financing) disappointed the street with 1.4 trillion RMB (-24% YoY), compared to the street estimates of &gt;1.5 trillion RMB.
We believe that more significant lending numbers would catalyze the iron ore price, but till then, iron prices will remain stagnant at the 100 USD/ton level. 


Iron Ore Tracker (25-Nov-2024): Waiting For Incremental Catalysts

<ul>
<li>The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.</li>
<li>The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. </li>
<li>We provide updates for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumba-iron-ore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25094:1" rel="noopener">Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a>, which just released their results. </li>
</ul>


The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.
The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. 
We provide updates for Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ) and Champion Iron (CIA AU), which just released their results. 


Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over the weekend, the FT reported that Anglo was urged by top shareholders to extend talks with BHP over its proposed merger. </li>
<li>BHP’s third unsolicited non-binding offer was rejected last Wednesday. The merger exchange ratio was raised by 9% to 0.886, an increase of 24.8% on the initial offer ratio.</li>
<li>Anglo left the door open for talks, extending the PUSU deadline for BHP to make a firm offer by 1 week to this Wednesday (29 May).</li>
</ul>


Over the weekend, the FT reported that Anglo was urged by top shareholders to extend talks with BHP over its proposed merger. 
BHP’s third unsolicited non-binding offer was rejected last Wednesday. The merger exchange ratio was raised by 9% to 0.886, an increase of 24.8% on the initial offer ratio.
Anglo left the door open for talks, extending the PUSU deadline for BHP to make a firm offer by 1 week to this Wednesday (29 May).


BHP Anglo Bid: Market Pricing Restructuring, No BHP Deal, PUSU Deadline on Wednesday

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Murakami-San now owns far more in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.</li>
<li>The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>. It is also informative for what isn't present.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> to buy-back Prosus will continue.</li>
</ul>


Murakami-San now owns far more in Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.
The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in L'Occitane (973 HK). It is also informative for what isn't present.

Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of Tencent (700 HK) to buy-back Prosus will continue.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Carlyle's tiult for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">SciClone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Carlyle's tiult for KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP). Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
Key updates took place on: Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), L'Occitane (973 HK), BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)/ Anglo American (AAL LN), and SciClone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: KFC Holdings Japan, Shanghai Henlius, Alumina, BHP/ Anglo American, SciClone

South Africa

Kumba Iron Ore Limited mines for and produces iron ore.

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Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)

Iron Ore Tracker (25-Nov-2024): Waiting For Incremental Catalysts

We analyze the primary drivers of the iron ore price. This week, we cover the TSF (Total Social Financing) number, which has not shown any sign of...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

Can the PMI beat of 50.1 (vs expectations 49.9) catalyse a recovery in the iron ore prices ? We eagerly look for the print on TSF next week which...

Sameer Taneja

BHP Anglo Bid: Market Pricing Restructuring, No BHP Deal, PUSU Deadline on Wednesday

The market is likely pricing an Anglo restructuring as the risk of a potential deal with BHP falling over appears to be high. Anglo is trading 10%...

DMA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: KFC Holdings Japan, Shanghai Henlius, Alumina, BHP/ Anglo American, SciClone

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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