IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> is in a trading halt “<em>pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers containing inside information of the Company</em>." </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-natural-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16456:1" rel="noopener">ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH)</a>, also in a trading halt, is likely seeking to privatise ENN through a Cayman scheme. A high AGM minority participation necessitates an attractive offer.</li>
<li>I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$66.50-85.01, with an average of HK$76.04, a 28% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



ENN Energy (2688 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers containing inside information of the Company." 

ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH), also in a trading halt, is likely seeking to privatise ENN through a Cayman scheme. A high AGM minority participation necessitates an attractive offer.
I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$66.50-85.01, with an average of HK$76.04, a 28% premium to the last close.


ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.</li>
<li>The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.
The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the Hang Seng Index over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Put trading was heavy in the Financial sector this week. ICBC and Bank of China were the main contributors to that with 73% and 63% of their volume in Puts.</li>
<li>ANTA Sports Products had a notable pick up in Call activity this past week as the stock bounces around 3 year lows vs the Hang Seng index (graph at bottom)</li>
<li>Energy and Real Estate sectors might be the best area to look for low vol opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Put trading was heavy in the Financial sector this week. ICBC and Bank of China were the main contributors to that with 73% and 63% of their volume in Puts.
ANTA Sports Products had a notable pick up in Call activity this past week as the stock bounces around 3 year lows vs the Hang Seng index (graph at bottom)
Energy and Real Estate sectors might be the best area to look for low vol opportunities.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a>'s marginal 3.8% drop in 1H FY25 net profit, it has rebounded from a 25.8% collapse in FY24. It maintained an interim DPS of HK$0.15.</li>
<li>Dollar margin expanded Rmb0.02/cu.m. and gross margin was up 0.8pp. Profit from value-added services grew 15.4%, though overall earnings are dragged by LPG and JVs.</li>
<li>FY25 is a year of profit recovery. Its improving cash flow, reduction in capex, and stronger balance sheet should support a stable dividend, putting it on a 7.8% yield.  </li>
</ul>


Despite China Gas Holdings (384 HK)'s marginal 3.8% drop in 1H FY25 net profit, it has rebounded from a 25.8% collapse in FY24. It maintained an interim DPS of HK$0.15.
Dollar margin expanded Rmb0.02/cu.m. and gross margin was up 0.8pp. Profit from value-added services grew 15.4%, though overall earnings are dragged by LPG and JVs.
FY25 is a year of profit recovery. Its improving cash flow, reduction in capex, and stronger balance sheet should support a stable dividend, putting it on a 7.8% yield.  


China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Earnings Have Stabilised

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.</li>
<li>Short interest is especially large in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotruk-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19764:1" rel="noopener">Sinotruk</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASMPT</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a> and inclusion could set off some short covering.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.
With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.
Short interest is especially large in Sinotruk, Giant Biogene, Kuaishou Technology, ASMPT and JD Logistics and inclusion could set off some short covering.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

Hong Kong

KunLun Energy is an integrated oil and gas service company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. It operates natural gas pipelines, processes and stores liquefied natural gas (LNG), and sells LNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) across China. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1994.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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KunLun Energy (135 HK)

ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$66.50-85.01, with an average of HK$76.04, a 28%...

Arun George

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

We highlight 9 potential inclusions to the HSI in March. Downward capping on Tencent and Alibaba gives the index committee an opportunity to add...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

Heavy put trading in Financial sector, with ICBC and Bank of China leading. ANTA Sports sees increase in call activity. Energy and Real Estate...

John Ley

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Earnings Have Stabilised

China Gas saw a slight dip in 1H FY25 profit but is rebounding from the sharp drop in FY24. Improved margins, profit from VAS, and a stronger...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

We highlight 10 potential inclusions for the HSI in Dec. The number of constituents has not increased this year and the target to reach 100 members...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$66.50-85.01, with an average of HK$76.04, a 28%...

Arun George

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

We highlight 9 potential inclusions to the HSI in March. Downward capping on Tencent and Alibaba gives the index committee an opportunity to add...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

​Heavy put trading in Financial sector, with ICBC and Bank of China leading. ANTA Sports sees increase in call activity. Energy and Real Estate...

John Ley

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Earnings Have Stabilised

​China Gas saw a slight dip in 1H FY25 profit but is rebounding from the sharp drop in FY24. Improved margins, profit from VAS, and a stronger...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

We highlight 10 potential inclusions for the HSI in Dec. The number of constituents has not increased this year and the target to reach 100 members...

Brian Freitas

Heavy put trading in Financial sector, with ICBC and Bank of China leading. ANTA Sports sees increase in call activity. Energy and Real Estate...

China Gas saw a slight dip in 1H FY25 profit but is rebounding from the sharp drop in FY24. Improved margins, profit from VAS, and a stronger...