Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A month ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-m-a-closing-in-on-the-tsuruha-partial-tender-likely-needs-to-be-higher" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206132" rel="noopener">[Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher</a>. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  </li>
<li>At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shares are up 10.0% in that month. </li>
<li>The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100</li>
</ul>


A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&amp;A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are &lt;2wks to the deal.  
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month. 
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100


[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Kusuri no Aoki is hugely successful but shareholder pressure is a problem. </li>
<li>This provides an insight into some of the current dynamics in the retail sector now that foreign capital is so involved.</li>
<li>Like Tsuruha, the Ishikawa company faces activist fund intervention and, also like Tsuruha, Aeon seems to be waiting in the wings to snap up the company.</li>
</ul>


Kusuri no Aoki is hugely successful but shareholder pressure is a problem. 
This provides an insight into some of the current dynamics in the retail sector now that foreign capital is so involved.
Like Tsuruha, the Ishikawa company faces activist fund intervention and, also like Tsuruha, Aeon seems to be waiting in the wings to snap up the company.


Kusuri No Aoki: Activist Pressure and Another Aeon Target

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan’s food retail sector is worth ¥55.8 trillion and is undergoing fast consolidation. If you are investing in Japanese food retailers/brands, this in-depth review will provide context and key trends. </li>
<li>National chains are finally displacing regional operators through M&amp;A and organic expansion – already, the top five food retailers control 29.5% of the market.</li>
<li>Private label is eroding national brand share as inflation bites and supermarkets are replacing fresh foods with higher margin deli, providing significant margin growth.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s food retail sector is worth ¥55.8 trillion and is undergoing fast consolidation. If you are investing in Japanese food retailers/brands, this in-depth review will provide context and key trends. 
National chains are finally displacing regional operators through M&amp;A and organic expansion – already, the top five food retailers control 29.5% of the market.
Private label is eroding national brand share as inflation bites and supermarkets are replacing fresh foods with higher margin deli, providing significant margin growth.


Consolidation in Japanese Food Retail as Top 5 Grab 30% Share

<ul>
<li>Drugstores have become Japan’s most dynamic brick‑and‑mortar format, expanding far beyond their pharmaceutical roots into food, beauty, household goods and healthcare services.  </li>
<li>Chain operators now control two thirds of the ¥15 trillion health &amp; beauty market and with more M&amp;A, the sector will consolidate further in the next two years.</li>
<li>Food &amp; drug hybrids, inbound tourism and private‑brand development are also transforming drugstores into neighbourhood one-stop-shop and health hubs – and 97% of inbound tourists say they shop there too.</li>
</ul>


Drugstores have become Japan’s most dynamic brick‑and‑mortar format, expanding far beyond their pharmaceutical roots into food, beauty, household goods and healthcare services.  
Chain operators now control two thirds of the ¥15 trillion health &amp; beauty market and with more M&amp;A, the sector will consolidate further in the next two years.
Food &amp; drug hybrids, inbound tourism and private‑brand development are also transforming drugstores into neighbourhood one-stop-shop and health hubs – and 97% of inbound tourists say they shop there too.


Food, Scripts and Lipsticks: Japan’s Drugstores

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities reversed early gains to close lower on the week (Nikkei -0.8%, Topix -0.4%) after breaching the 40,000 level on Monday</li>
<li>Trade friction is re-emerging as a key geopolitical overhang ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline</li>
<li>Yaskawa’s profit guidance cut (FY26 OP -14% YoY to ¥43bn vs prior +20%) signals subdued industrial capex ahead, with tariff policy weighing on visibility in FA demand</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities reversed early gains to close lower on the week (Nikkei -0.8%, Topix -0.4%) after breaching the 40,000 level on Monday
Trade friction is re-emerging as a key geopolitical overhang ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline
Yaskawa’s profit guidance cut (FY26 OP -14% YoY to ¥43bn vs prior +20%) signals subdued industrial capex ahead, with tariff policy weighing on visibility in FA demand


Japan Strategy Weekly | Positioning Caution Ahead of Tariff Risk

Japan

Kusuri no Aoki Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides medicines, cosmetics, health foods, beauty care, and household products. Kusuri no Aoki Holdings serves customers in Japan.

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Kusuri no Aoki Holdings (3549 JP)

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Tsuruha and Welcia getting smacked late this AM and early PM - down 7% just now. This looks like an unwind of pre-positioned longs for the M _ _ _...

Travis Lundy

Kusuri No Aoki: Activist Pressure and Another Aeon Target

Kusuri no Aoki faces shareholder pressure amid foreign capital involvement, mirroring dynamics in retail sector with activist fund intervention...

Michael Causton

Food, Scripts and Lipsticks: Japan’s Drugstores

Drugstores in Japan have evolved into dynamic one-stop shops, way beyond pharmaceuticals and is the sector that is consolidating fastest, with...

Michael Causton

Japan Strategy Weekly | Positioning Caution Ahead of Tariff Risk

Japanese equities fell for the week after reaching a milestone, trade tensions resurface before tariff deadline, Yaskawa's profit cut hints at...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

Tsuruha and Welcia getting smacked late this AM and early PM - down 7% just now. This looks like an unwind of pre-positioned longs for the M _ _ _...

Travis Lundy

Kusuri No Aoki: Activist Pressure and Another Aeon Target

​Kusuri no Aoki faces shareholder pressure amid foreign capital involvement, mirroring dynamics in retail sector with activist fund intervention...

Michael Causton

Consolidation in Japanese Food Retail as Top 5 Grab 30% Share

​Japan's food retail sector is rapidly consolidating, with national chains taking over regional operators. Private label and higher margin products...

Michael Causton

Food, Scripts and Lipsticks: Japan’s Drugstores

​Drugstores in Japan have evolved into dynamic one-stop shops, way beyond pharmaceuticals and is the sector that is consolidating fastest, with...

Michael Causton

Japan Strategy Weekly | Positioning Caution Ahead of Tariff Risk

​Japanese equities fell for the week after reaching a milestone, trade tensions resurface before tariff deadline, Yaskawa's profit cut hints at...

Mark Chadwick

Kusuri no Aoki faces shareholder pressure amid foreign capital involvement, mirroring dynamics in retail sector with activist fund intervention...

Japan's food retail sector is rapidly consolidating, with national chains taking over regional operators. Private label and higher margin products...

Drugstores in Japan have evolved into dynamic one-stop shops, way beyond pharmaceuticals and is the sector that is consolidating fastest, with...

Japanese equities fell for the week after reaching a milestone, trade tensions resurface before tariff deadline, Yaskawa's profit cut hints at...