Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A trade idea involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> from a Holdco perspective, which we suggested last year outperformed Topix by more than 30% in the first 9 months of 2022.</li>
<li>Since November 2022, Kirin has underperformed Topix by 18% (driven by input cost inflation) to push the Holdco discount yet again to an attractive level.</li>
<li>The price hike announcement yesterday could change the cost inflation narrative and help Kirin to keep on unwinding the Holdco discount.</li>
</ul>


A trade idea involving Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) from a Holdco perspective, which we suggested last year outperformed Topix by more than 30% in the first 9 months of 2022.
Since November 2022, Kirin has underperformed Topix by 18% (driven by input cost inflation) to push the Holdco discount yet again to an attractive level.
The price hike announcement yesterday could change the cost inflation narrative and help Kirin to keep on unwinding the Holdco discount.


Kirin’s Holdco Discount Could Keep Unwinding After The Price Hikes Announcement

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On November 22, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</li>
<li>On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.</li>
<li>Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.</li>
</ul>


On November 22, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.
Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Boryung Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boryung-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19265:1" rel="noopener">Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS)</a> is expanding its oncology portfolio mainly through in-licensing and co-promotion agreement and aims to achieve revenue of KRW217 billion from oncology segment in 2026.</li>
<li>This month, Boryung received approval for in-licensed drug Zepzelca (lurbinectedin), indicated for the treatment of small-cell lung cancer in Korea. The drug has demonstrated high adoption rate in the U.S.</li>
<li>This year, Boryung launched two in-licensed neutropenia drugs and one generic drug for breast cancer. The company plans to launch 18 oncology drugs during 2022–2026, including 10 first generics.</li>
</ul>



Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS) is expanding its oncology portfolio mainly through in-licensing and co-promotion agreement and aims to achieve revenue of KRW217 billion from oncology segment in 2026.
This month, Boryung received approval for in-licensed drug Zepzelca (lurbinectedin), indicated for the treatment of small-cell lung cancer in Korea. The drug has demonstrated high adoption rate in the U.S.
This year, Boryung launched two in-licensed neutropenia drugs and one generic drug for breast cancer. The company plans to launch 18 oncology drugs during 2022–2026, including 10 first generics.


Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Oncology Portfolio Expansion to Accelerate Growth Momentum

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP),</a> an established global name in infectious diseases, is banking on COVID-related products to achieve accelerated double-digit revenue growth in current fiscal.</li>
<li>Shionogi applied for the domestic marketing of its COVID-19 oral drug and signed a basic agreement with the government, which is expected to purchase 1 million courses immediately after approval.</li>
<li>It has a stable revenue stream from HIV franchise. Apart from infectious diseases, Shionogi has multiple late-stage candidates in psycho-neurological diseases and other new growth areas, including oncology and cardiology.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP), an established global name in infectious diseases, is banking on COVID-related products to achieve accelerated double-digit revenue growth in current fiscal.
Shionogi applied for the domestic marketing of its COVID-19 oral drug and signed a basic agreement with the government, which is expected to purchase 1 million courses immediately after approval.
It has a stable revenue stream from HIV franchise. Apart from infectious diseases, Shionogi has multiple late-stage candidates in psycho-neurological diseases and other new growth areas, including oncology and cardiology.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Ready To Cash-In On COVID-Related Efforts; Long-Term Growth Drivers Added

<ul>
<li>The Holdco trade involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>, which we suggested last year has generated over 33% during the last 12 months against Topix’s 3.8% and Nikkei’s 2.6%.</li>
<li>We expect additional gains from this Holdco trade mostly alongside improvements in the core-business EBITDA expectations.</li>
<li>In addition, Kirin is looking outright positive with multiple catalysts assisting Kirin to turn around price performance.</li>
</ul>


The Holdco trade involving Kirin Holdings (2503 JP), which we suggested last year has generated over 33% during the last 12 months against Topix’s 3.8% and Nikkei’s 2.6%.
We expect additional gains from this Holdco trade mostly alongside improvements in the core-business EBITDA expectations.
In addition, Kirin is looking outright positive with multiple catalysts assisting Kirin to turn around price performance.


Kirin: Holdco Trade Has More Room to Run, Also Outright Attractive

Japan

Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co.,Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals. The Company's products include a protein produced by genetic recombination technology, an anti-anemia agent that attaches new sugar chains through partial modification of the amino acid sequence of human erythropoietin (EPO), and a glycoprotein, human erythropoietin.

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Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP)

Kirin’s Holdco Discount Could Keep Unwinding After The Price Hikes Announcement

With price hikes possibly turning around the recent negative sentiment, we think the Kirin Holdco trade could yet again get going in the short-term...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Shionogi got approval for oral COVID drug and is seeking approval for COVID-19 vaccine in Japan. The company expects ¥110 billion revenue (~27% of...

Tina Banerjee

Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Oncology Portfolio Expansion to Accelerate Growth Momentum

Boryung is expanding oncology portfolio and got approval for in-licensed drug, Zepzelca in Korea. During 2022–2026, oncology segment is expected to...

Tina Banerjee

Kirin: Holdco Trade Has More Room to Run, Also Outright Attractive

Almost 12 months down the line, our Holdco trade involving Kirin has given us a return of around 33.3% against Topix’s 3.8% and Nikkei’s 2.6%...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kirin’s Holdco Discount Could Keep Unwinding After The Price Hikes Announcement

With price hikes possibly turning around the recent negative sentiment, we think the Kirin Holdco trade could yet again get going in the short-term...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Shionogi got approval for oral COVID drug and is seeking approval for COVID-19 vaccine in Japan. The company expects ¥110 billion revenue (~27% of...

Tina Banerjee

Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Oncology Portfolio Expansion to Accelerate Growth Momentum

Boryung is expanding oncology portfolio and got approval for in-licensed drug, Zepzelca in Korea. During 2022–2026, oncology segment is expected to...

Tina Banerjee

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Ready To Cash-In On COVID-Related Efforts; Long-Term Growth Drivers Added

After the approval for COVID-19 oral drug in Japan, Shionogi expects to receive supply order from the government for 1 million doses. COVID...

Tina Banerjee

Kirin: Holdco Trade Has More Room to Run, Also Outright Attractive

Almost 12 months down the line, our Holdco trade involving Kirin has given us a return of around 33.3% against Topix’s 3.8% and Nikkei’s 2.6%...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri