Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During H1FY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> reported 3% YoY growth in revenue, driven by mainstay drugs. However, operating profit declined 11% YoY and net profit decreased 6% YoY.</li>
<li>Although Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, it has reduced Leqembi FY25 revenue guidance by ¥14B to ¥42.5B due to lower revenue expectation from Americas.</li>
<li>Leqembi is expected to be approved in Europe for a narrower set of patients. Next year, the drug will face competition in the U.S.</li>
</ul>


During H1FY25, Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 3% YoY growth in revenue, driven by mainstay drugs. However, operating profit declined 11% YoY and net profit decreased 6% YoY.
Although Eisai kept its FY25 total revenue guidance unchanged, it has reduced Leqembi FY25 revenue guidance by ¥14B to ¥42.5B due to lower revenue expectation from Americas.
Leqembi is expected to be approved in Europe for a narrower set of patients. Next year, the drug will face competition in the U.S.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Mixed H1FY25 Performance; Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi Struggle Continues

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyowa-kirin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18055:1" rel="noopener">Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP)</a> announced top-line results of the Phase 3 trial of rocatinlimab targeting moderate to severe Atopic Dermatitis (eczema), which affects 6.6M patients in the U.S.</li>
<li>The trial met co-primary endpoints and reached statistically significant differences from placebo for all key secondary endpoints. However, efficacy data was less compelling compared to current standard of care.</li>
<li>Kyowa Kirin shares nosedived mainly on the concern over competitive strength of rocatinlimab. Amid gloomy outlook, Kyowa Kirin shares will need time to recover.</li>
</ul>



Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) announced top-line results of the Phase 3 trial of rocatinlimab targeting moderate to severe Atopic Dermatitis (eczema), which affects 6.6M patients in the U.S.
The trial met co-primary endpoints and reached statistically significant differences from placebo for all key secondary endpoints. However, efficacy data was less compelling compared to current standard of care.
Kyowa Kirin shares nosedived mainly on the concern over competitive strength of rocatinlimab. Amid gloomy outlook, Kyowa Kirin shares will need time to recover.


Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Reports Phase 3 Trial Result in Atopic Dermatitis; Rivalry Remains Doubtful

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> has guided for FY25 Leqembi revenue of ¥56.5B (~$366M), with ¥43.5B from U.S., and ¥10.0B from Japan. In FY24, Leqembi reported worldwide revenue of ¥4.2B.</li>
<li>Leqembi is expected to grow significantly due to increase in prescriptions following the progress in the development of AD diagnosis and treatment pathways in the U.S. and Japan.</li>
<li>The current rally can be short lived, as the competitor drug is expected to get FDA approval in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>



Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has guided for FY25 Leqembi revenue of ¥56.5B (~$366M), with ¥43.5B from U.S., and ¥10.0B from Japan. In FY24, Leqembi reported worldwide revenue of ¥4.2B.
Leqembi is expected to grow significantly due to increase in prescriptions following the progress in the development of AD diagnosis and treatment pathways in the U.S. and Japan.
The current rally can be short lived, as the competitor drug is expected to get FDA approval in 3Q24.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi Is Gathering Momentum; Imminent Competition May Spoil the Party

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyowa-kirin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18055:1" rel="noopener">Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP)</a> has announced partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgebio-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28746:1" rel="noopener">Bridgebio Pharma Inc (BBIO US)</a> for an exclusive license on infigratinib for achondroplasia, hypochondroplasia, and other skeletal dysplasias in Japan.</li>
<li>This month, Kyowa Kirin has enrolled first patient in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating tivozanib eye drops (KHK4951) in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME).</li>
<li>The company’s top selling drug Crysvita is growing steadily since launch. Crysvita led to better-than-expected result in 2023. However, higher R&amp;D expenses will negatively impact 2024 operating profit.</li>
</ul>



Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) has announced partnership with Bridgebio Pharma Inc (BBIO US) for an exclusive license on infigratinib for achondroplasia, hypochondroplasia, and other skeletal dysplasias in Japan.
This month, Kyowa Kirin has enrolled first patient in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating tivozanib eye drops (KHK4951) in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME).
The company’s top selling drug Crysvita is growing steadily since launch. Crysvita led to better-than-expected result in 2023. However, higher R&amp;D expenses will negatively impact 2024 operating profit.


Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Recent Portfolio Strengthening Initiatives to Accelerate Long-Term Growth

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO Corp (6146 JP)</a> to buy.</li>
<li>It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.</li>
<li>I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less DISCO Corp (6146 JP) to buy.
It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.
I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.


FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

Japan

Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co.,Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals. The Company's products include a protein produced by genetic recombination technology, an anti-anemia agent that attaches new sugar chains through partial modification of the amino acid sequence of human erythropoietin (EPO), and a glycoprotein, human erythropoietin.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP)

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Mixed H1FY25 Performance; Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi Struggle Continues

Eisai sees revenue growth but profit decline in H1FY25. The company reduced Leqembi guidance for FY25. Leqembi is expected to be approved in...

Tina Banerjee

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Reports Phase 3 Trial Result in Atopic Dermatitis; Rivalry Remains Doubtful

Kyowa Kirin maintained 2024 guidance, which calls for 5% decline in operating profit and 16% decrease in net profit. The company is expected to...

Tina Banerjee

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi Is Gathering Momentum; Imminent Competition May Spoil the Party

Eisai expects 13x jump in Leqembi revenue for FY25 to ¥56.5B, driven by progress in AD treatment pathways in U.S. and Japan, and China launch. A...

Tina Banerjee

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Recent Portfolio Strengthening Initiatives to Accelerate Long-Term Growth

Kyowa Kirin partners with Bridgebio for infigratinib in Japan and enrolls first patient in Phase 2 trial for tivozanib eye drop for DME. Higher...

Tina Banerjee

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

The announcement will come out in <3 weeks. Since I published, we have an update that Yanai-san sold Fast Retailing shares, Nitori jumped 8% on...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Mixed H1FY25 Performance; Guidance Reaffirmed; Leqembi Struggle Continues

​Eisai sees revenue growth but profit decline in H1FY25. The company reduced Leqembi guidance for FY25. Leqembi is expected to be approved in...

Tina Banerjee

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Reports Phase 3 Trial Result in Atopic Dermatitis; Rivalry Remains Doubtful

Kyowa Kirin maintained 2024 guidance, which calls for 5% decline in operating profit and 16% decrease in net profit. The company is expected to...

Tina Banerjee

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi Is Gathering Momentum; Imminent Competition May Spoil the Party

​Eisai expects 13x jump in Leqembi revenue for FY25 to ¥56.5B, driven by progress in AD treatment pathways in U.S. and Japan, and China launch. A...

Tina Banerjee

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Recent Portfolio Strengthening Initiatives to Accelerate Long-Term Growth

​Kyowa Kirin partners with Bridgebio for infigratinib in Japan and enrolls first patient in Phase 2 trial for tivozanib eye drop for DME. Higher...

Tina Banerjee

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

The announcement will come out in <3 weeks. Since I published, we have an update that Yanai-san sold Fast Retailing shares, Nitori jumped 8% on...

Travis Lundy

Eisai sees revenue growth but profit decline in H1FY25. The company reduced Leqembi guidance for FY25. Leqembi is expected to be approved in...

Eisai expects 13x jump in Leqembi revenue for FY25 to ¥56.5B, driven by progress in AD treatment pathways in U.S. and Japan, and China launch. A...

Kyowa Kirin partners with Bridgebio for infigratinib in Japan and enrolls first patient in Phase 2 trial for tivozanib eye drop for DME. Higher...