Analyst

Alasdair Moody

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We examined ten years of accounting and valuation data for the pharmaceutical companies around the world with sales of US$100m+ and created statistics for each region based on aggregate data and for a typical company. In this trend report, we summarise the data and highlight the outliers. Assuming clients will have their own macro industry views, we used valuations and our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance (GAP) scores, (which help quantify the risk of creative accounting) to…

We examined ten years of accounting and valuation data for the pharmaceutical companies around the world with sales of US$100m+ and created statistics for each region based on aggregate data and for a typical company. In this trend report, we summarise the data and highlight the outliers. Assuming clients will have their own macro industry views, we used valuations and our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance (GAP) scores, (which help quantify the risk of creative accounting) to…

Global Pharmaceuticals: Valuations, Assets and Leverage Up - Margins Down

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We screened for large-cap names in Japan that have recently seen a spike in volatility. We calculated Beta over the last 6 months and compared it to the 7-year average Beta. We then screened for names where current Beta is more than 1.5 standard deviations above the 7-year average.As you can see from the results below, a number of names have really moved away from their historical average. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6311" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6311:1">Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/794" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:794:1">Mitsubishi Motors Corp (7211 JP)</a> are both close to 3 standard…

We screened for large-cap names in Japan that have recently seen a spike in volatility. We calculated Beta over the last 6 months and compared it to the 7-year average Beta. We then screened for names where current Beta is more than 1.5 standard deviations above the 7-year average.As you can see from the results below, a number of names have really moved away from their historical average. Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508 JP) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp (7211 JP) are both close to 3 standard…

Large-Cap Names that Have Gotten a Lot More Volatile Recently....

Through Earnings Season we like to track volume spikes pre-earnings announcement. For some of the volume spikes we can find legitimate reasons and for some we cannot. We start with names that are expected to announce earnings in the next 3 days and then limit the screen to companies with spikes in volume. Below are the results from yesterday. The two names in the screen below that do not have apparent news around yesterday's volume spikes are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8135:1">Amano Corp (6436 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9671" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9671:1">Aica Kogyo Co Ltd (4206 JP)</a>.…

Through Earnings Season we like to track volume spikes pre-earnings announcement. For some of the volume spikes we can find legitimate reasons and for some we cannot. We start with names that are expected to announce earnings in the next 3 days and then limit the screen to companies with spikes in volume. Below are the results from yesterday. The two names in the screen below that do not have apparent news around yesterday's volume spikes are Amano Corp (6436 JP) and Aica Kogyo Co Ltd (4206 JP).…

Leakage Report - Names that Moved on Volume Yesterday, Days Before They Announce Earnings....

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist, Vasuda Capital Management

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist

Vasuda Capital Management

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10370" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10370:1">Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD US)</a>, our portfolio company announced the initiation of a phase 2 study of Nuplazid in Alzheimer's related agitation, an area of great unmet need. Alzheimer's related agitation could be even a larger potential market than Alzheimer-related psychosis (ADP). The drug is already in a phase 2 trial for ADP and results are expected later this year (which could provide an upward boost to the stock). We recommend accumulating the stock on current weakness. Our price…

 Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD US), our portfolio company announced the initiation of a phase 2 study of Nuplazid in Alzheimer's related agitation, an area of great unmet need. Alzheimer's related agitation could be even a larger potential market than Alzheimer-related psychosis (ADP). The drug is already in a phase 2 trial for ADP and results are expected later this year (which could provide an upward boost to the stock). We recommend accumulating the stock on current weakness. Our price…

Some Actionable Ideas in the Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Sector: October 31 Sector Update

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and medical equipment diverge across the region, and still trail the per capita averages of the 34 OECD member countries. </li><li>For a shorter-term perspective, over the past five weeks, four Healthcare stocks (Cordlife Group, iX Biopharma, UG Healthcare Corporation &amp; Health Management International) have released Annual Reports whilst a secondary listing (Techcomp Holdings) has released an Interim Report.</li><li>Within these reports, there are examples of how the Healthcare Sector is adapting to Asia Pacific demographics, maintaining an ongoing focus on Research &amp; Development, monitoring pharmaceutical &amp; food regulation trends, collaborating with communities to build business channels, expansion of production lines and pursuing value chain management in manufacturing and distribution. </li></ul>

From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and medical equipment diverge across the region, and still trail the per capita averages of the 34 OECD member countries. For a shorter-term perspective, over the past five weeks, four Healthcare stocks (Cordlife Group, iX Biopharma, UG Healthcare Corporation &amp; Health Management International) have released Annual Reports whilst a secondary listing (Techcomp Holdings) has released an Interim Report.Within these reports, there are examples of how the Healthcare Sector is adapting to Asia Pacific demographics, maintaining an ongoing focus on Research &amp; Development, monitoring pharmaceutical &amp; food regulation trends, collaborating with communities to build business channels, expansion of production lines and pursuing value chain management in manufacturing and distribution. 

Japan

Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co.,Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals. The Company's products include a protein produced by genetic recombination technology, an anti-anemia agent that attaches new sugar chains through partial modification of the amino acid sequence of human erythropoietin (EPO), and a glycoprotein, human erythropoietin.

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Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP)

Global Pharmaceuticals: Valuations, Assets and Leverage Up - Margins Down

We examined ten years of accounting and valuation data for the pharmaceutical companies around the world with sales of US$100m+ and created...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Large-Cap Names that Have Gotten a Lot More Volatile Recently....

We screened for large-cap names in Japan that have recently seen a spike in volatility. We calculated Beta over the last 6 months and compared it...

Custom Products Group

Leakage Report - Names that Moved on Volume Yesterday, Days Before They Announce Earnings....

Through Earnings Season we like to track volume spikes pre-earnings announcement. For some of the volume spikes we can find legitimate reasons and...

Custom Products Group

Some Actionable Ideas in the Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Sector: October 31 Sector Update

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD US), our portfolio company announced the initiation of a phase 2 study of Nuplazid in Alzheimer's related...

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Key Drivers of Asia's Healthcare Sector

From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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