Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q324 revenues of $4.17 billion, marginally higher than guided, up 7.8% QoQ and up 19.8% YoY. </li>
<li>Guided Q424 revenues of $4.3 billion at the midpoint for a 3.1% QoQ increase and a 14.4% YoY increase.</li>
<li>Q324 was LRCX fifth consecutive growth quarter, however they are still down ~$1.1 billion from their peak quarterly revenue in Q422</li>
</ul>


Q324 revenues of $4.17 billion, marginally higher than guided, up 7.8% QoQ and up 19.8% YoY. 
Guided Q424 revenues of $4.3 billion at the midpoint for a 3.1% QoQ increase and a 14.4% YoY increase.
Q324 was LRCX fifth consecutive growth quarter, however they are still down ~$1.1 billion from their peak quarterly revenue in Q422


LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

<ul>
<li>ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion</li>
<li>Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022</li>
<li>Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025</li>
</ul>


ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion
Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022
Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025


Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.</li><li>I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chatgpt-o1-strawberry-and-memory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)</a></li><li>Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.</li></ul>

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC - ADR</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> are the largest sells with buying spread across <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv-b0092428-e3ec-4a92-bdd6-2f6eff7f1879" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28204:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding NV</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology</a>.</li>
<li>The selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> will add to the selling from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> due to the market consultation.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

TSMC - ADR and NVIDIA are the largest sells with buying spread across ASML Holding NV, Qualcomm Inc, Applied Materials and Micron Technology.
The selling in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will add to the selling from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) due to the market consultation.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Lam Research Corporation reported its results for the June 2024 quarter, demonstrating a solid performance with revenue, profitability, and earnings per share exceeding the midpoint of its guidance.</li><li>The quarter saw a significant 22% sequential increase in revenue from its Customer Support Business Group (CSBG), largely driven by its Reliant systems and spare parts sales.</li><li>Furthermore, the company celebrated a key operational milestone with its Malaysian factory shipping its 5,000th chamber, which is a critical step toward achieving long-term cost reduction goals through a more globalized manufacturing footprint.</li></ul>

Lam Research Corporation reported its results for the June 2024 quarter, demonstrating a solid performance with revenue, profitability, and earnings per share exceeding the midpoint of its guidance.The quarter saw a significant 22% sequential increase in revenue from its Customer Support Business Group (CSBG), largely driven by its Reliant systems and spare parts sales.Furthermore, the company celebrated a key operational milestone with its Malaysian factory shipping its 5,000th chamber, which is a critical step toward achieving long-term cost reduction goals through a more globalized manufacturing footprint.

Lam Research Corporation: How Are They Benefitting From Advanced Memory Technologies? - Major Drivers

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

Q324 $4.17 billion, +7.8% QoQ, +19.8% YoY. Q424 guide $4.3 billion, +3.1% QoQ, +14.4% YoY. Despite it being their fifth growth quarter in a row,...

William Keating

ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook

ASML downward revision of their 2025 forecast tanked the stock, and semiconductors generally, overnight. Yet they are still projecting 16% YoY...

William Keating

Micron and WFE

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle. I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between...

Fabricated Knowledge

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn

No constituent changes but a lot of capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.04bn. The selling in...

Brian Freitas

Lam Research Corporation: How Are They Benefitting From Advanced Memory Technologies? - Major Drivers

Lam Research Corporation reported its results for the June 2024 quarter, demonstrating a solid performance with revenue, profitability, and...

Baptista Research

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