Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>French fries are among the most universal foods in the world, served across fast-food chains, casual dining restaurants, stadiums, and airline meals.</li><li>Yet even this staple of global comfort food is beginning to reflect broader economic pressures shaping consumer behavior.</li><li>Lamb Weston, one of the world’s largest producers of frozen potato products and a major supplier to chains such as McDonald’s and Chick-fil-A, has recently highlighted a changing demand environment that underscores these pressures.</li></ul>

French fries are among the most universal foods in the world, served across fast-food chains, casual dining restaurants, stadiums, and airline meals.Yet even this staple of global comfort food is beginning to reflect broader economic pressures shaping consumer behavior.Lamb Weston, one of the world’s largest producers of frozen potato products and a major supplier to chains such as McDonald’s and Chick-fil-A, has recently highlighted a changing demand environment that underscores these pressures.

Lamb Weston Signals Trouble: Why Even French Fries Aren’t Immune To Economic Slowdowns!

<ul><li>Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. described a first half shaped by strong shipment momentum and a deliberate reset in how it manages customer relationships, capacity, and costs.</li><li>Volume grew 8 percent in the second quarter and 7 percent in the first half, which management attributed to customer wins, retention, and share gains even as restaurant traffic remained soft in several markets.</li><li>Net sales were essentially flat on a constant currency basis as volume growth was offset by an unfavorable price and mix profile that reflected customer support actions and a shift toward lower margin channels and customers.</li></ul>

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. described a first half shaped by strong shipment momentum and a deliberate reset in how it manages customer relationships, capacity, and costs.Volume grew 8 percent in the second quarter and 7 percent in the first half, which management attributed to customer wins, retention, and share gains even as restaurant traffic remained soft in several markets.Net sales were essentially flat on a constant currency basis as volume growth was offset by an unfavorable price and mix profile that reflected customer support actions and a shift toward lower margin channels and customers.

Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. Faces a Global Supply & Logistics Wildcard That Could Disrupt Its Shareholder Return Story!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.</li>
<li>As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.</li>
<li>Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.
As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.
Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

<ul>
<li>
We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.</li>
<li>
Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.</li>
<li>
Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.</li>
<li>
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.</li>
</ul>



We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.

Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.

Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.


Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for SP500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6 March 2026. </li>
<li>There are 4 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. We see $26bn of flows, one-way.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for SP500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the March 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 6 March 2026. 
There are 4 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. We see $26bn of flows, one-way.


Quiddity SP 500 Mar26 Results: Over US$26bn Total One-Way Flows

United States

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and supplies frozen potato products. Lamb Weston Holdings offers fries, oven roasted potatoes, puffs, chips, slices, and prepared potato products.

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Lamb Weston Holdings (LW US)

Lamb Weston Signals Trouble: Why Even French Fries Aren’t Immune To Economic Slowdowns!

French fries are among the most universal foods in the world, served across fast-food chains, casual dining restaurants, stadiums, and airline...

Baptista Research

Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. Faces a Global Supply & Logistics Wildcard That Could Disrupt Its Shareholder Return Story!

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. described a first half shaped by strong shipment momentum and a deliberate reset in how it manages customer...

Baptista Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

Last week (3/21) we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the $SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which we noted...

Vermilion Research

Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity SP 500 Mar26 Results: Over US$26bn Total One-Way Flows

The SP500/400/600 review results for March 2026 were announced Friday. We got 2 of the four SP500 ADDs correct (our model defaults to two changes)...

Anjana Amarasuriya

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