Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum</a> are the largest net buys, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo</a> are the largest net sells.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, NetEase and China Molybdenum are the largest net buys, while HSBC Holdings, BYD, SMIC, JD.com and Lenovo are the largest net sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum (3993 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> in March, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.65bn (US$1.23bn). Big capping inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>With decent size to buy from passives, the A/H trades on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum (3993 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmoc-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28168:1" rel="noopener">CMOC Group (603993 CH)</a> become interesting.</li>
</ul>



CATL (3750 HK), China Molybdenum (3993 HK) and Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index in March, while Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.65bn (US$1.23bn). Big capping inflows for Tencent (700 HK) and big capping outflows for HSBC Holdings (5 HK). 
With decent size to buy from passives, the A/H trades on CATL (3750 HK) / CATL (300750 CH) and China Molybdenum (3993 HK) / CMOC Group (603993 CH) become interesting.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: 3 Adds & 1 Delete as More A/H Pairs Selected

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 March.</li>
<li>We highlight 8 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> have better odds than others of being added to the index.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 March.
We highlight 8 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.

CATL (3750 HK), Yum China Holdings (9987 HK), WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) and 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) have better odds than others of being added to the index.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Mar26

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>HK$101bn+/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week, and net buying of HK$23+bn. The gross volumes are down a bit but net continues strongly.</li>
<li>China Mobile was shellacked with net selling every day last week (actually net sold every day since 11 Dec). The numbers are very impressive.</li>
<li>ETFs were net purchased in some size last week which usually means a swing to stocks and sale of ETFs this week.</li>
</ul>


HK$101bn+/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week, and net buying of HK$23+bn. The gross volumes are down a bit but net continues strongly.
China Mobile was shellacked with net selling every day last week (actually net sold every day since 11 Dec). The numbers are very impressive.
ETFs were net purchased in some size last week which usually means a swing to stocks and sale of ETFs this week.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week To 23 Jan 2026) - China Mobile Shellacked Again. Tech Bought Again

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 16th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Kuaishou, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CCB, China Life, Meituan, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hang Seng Bank, Laopu Gold.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 16th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Kuaishou, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CCB, China Life, Meituan, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hang Seng Bank, Laopu Gold.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 16th): Tencent, Kuaishou, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CCB, China Life

China

Laopu Gold is a leading Chinese designer, manufacturer, and retailer of heritage gold jewelry, offering products with Chinese culture-inspired designs and craftsmanship. The company sells pure gold, gem-set, and non-gold jewelry through both offline retail stores and online platforms, and provides maintenance and repair services. Founded in 2009, its headquarters are located in Beijing, China.

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Laopu Gold (6181 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: 3 Adds & 1 Delete as More A/H Pairs Selected

There are 3 adds, 1 delete for the HSI to take us to 90 members. We should get to the 100-target early 2027. With mainland China closed for the...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Mar26

We highlight 8 potential adds to the HSI in March. CATL is still a high prob add along with Healthcare names. Estimated turnover is 4.1% and trade...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week To 23 Jan 2026) - China Mobile Shellacked Again. Tech Bought Again

SOUTHBOUND investors continued net buying HK stocks last week at a similar pace to the previous two weeks. They sold China Mobile at an even faster...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 16th): Tencent, Kuaishou, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CCB, China Life

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK), China Mobile (941...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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