Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively</li>
<li>Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215


Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NHAI has delivered a very successful highway program, following the advent of Bharatmala (BM-1)</li><li>The huge scaling up of the NH program in terms of getting the model right, awarding, executing, financing, creating a highly competitive vendor ecosystem, and monetizing assets is no mean task and involves significant execution complexities that could have only been handled by the N’HAI’ Way</li><li>We have done an in-depth analysis of the NHAI financial model and believe that concerns about debt may get tackled from FY31 onwards as NHAI is capable of meeting its debt commitments on its own and solely relying on budgetary support for additional NH capex</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NHAI has delivered a very successful highway program, following the advent of Bharatmala (BM-1)The huge scaling up of the NH program in terms of getting the model right, awarding, executing, financing, creating a highly competitive vendor ecosystem, and monetizing assets is no mean task and involves significant execution complexities that could have only been handled by the N’HAI’ WayWe have done an in-depth analysis of the NHAI financial model and believe that concerns about debt may get tackled from FY31 onwards as NHAI is capable of meeting its debt commitments on its own and solely relying on budgetary support for additional NH capexContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>NHAI’s H1FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect a pick-up in Q3FY24: With minimal awarding activity in Q2FY24 and just four projects in Q1FY24, the overall H1FY24 awarding activity remained muted</li><li>New NHAI project DPRs are currently under finalisation, which has caused a delay in ordering</li><li>We expect FY24 to be a truncated year for ordering with ~INR 500bn worth of project awards (vs average INR 1.2trn for the previous year)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NHAI’s H1FY24 awarding activity is muted, expect a pick-up in Q3FY24: With minimal awarding activity in Q2FY24 and just four projects in Q1FY24, the overall H1FY24 awarding activity remained mutedNew NHAI project DPRs are currently under finalisation, which has caused a delay in orderingWe expect FY24 to be a truncated year for ordering with ~INR 500bn worth of project awards (vs average INR 1.2trn for the previous year)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials (Q2FY24 Results Preview): Lacking triggers

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Amagi Media Labs / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amagi-media-labs-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45644:1" rel="noopener">Amagi Media Labs (AMAGI IN)</a> raised about US$190m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>AML enables its clients to manage, distribute, and monetize live, linear, and on-demand content seamlessly across traditional TV, Over-The-Top (OTT), and Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV (FAST) platforms.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement</li>
</ul>



Amagi Media Labs (AMAGI IN) raised about US$190m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
AML enables its clients to manage, distribute, and monetize live, linear, and on-demand content seamlessly across traditional TV, Over-The-Top (OTT), and Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV (FAST) platforms.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement


Aequitas: Amagi Media Labs IPO Lockup Expiry - US$760m Release; Pre-IPO Investors Well in The Money

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

India

Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) is an Indian multinational conglomerate specializing in engineering, procurement, construction (EPC), hi-tech manufacturing, and services. The company operates across diverse segments including infrastructure, hydrocarbon, power, heavy engineering, defense engineering, IT and technology services, financial services, and development projects. L&T was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

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Larsen & Toubro (LTOD LI)

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

Industrials: N’HAI’ Way

We have done an in-depth analysis of the NHAI financial model and believe that concerns about debt may get tackled from FY31 onwards

HDFC Securities

Industrials (Q2FY24 Results Preview): Lacking triggers

With minimal awarding activity in Q2FY24 and just four projects in Q1FY24, the overall H1FY24 awarding activity remained muted

HDFC Securities

Aequitas: Amagi Media Labs IPO Lockup Expiry - US$760m Release; Pre-IPO Investors Well in The Money

A group of investors, including Trudy Holdings, AVP I Fund, and Accel India, have launched a INR6bn (US$63m) selldown, together selling 10.9m...

Akshat Shah

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

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