External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite strong ordering momentum, we are seeing emergence of headwinds to the Indian highways program</li><li>Substantial dilution of bid qualification has exposed the sector to low quality, inadequately funded developers taking large order inflow market share</li><li>This has the potential of de-railing the NH program, creation of sub quality infrastructure, time and cost overruns and eventually higher cost to completion and defaults</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite strong ordering momentum, we are seeing emergence of headwinds to the Indian highways programSubstantial dilution of bid qualification has exposed the sector to low quality, inadequately funded developers taking large order inflow market shareThis has the potential of de-railing the NH program, creation of sub quality infrastructure, time and cost overruns and eventually higher cost to completion and defaultsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>India’s long-awaited Capex cycle finally seems to be gathering momentum, after a hiatus of 10 years</li><li>While there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for multi-year growth</li><li>In this report, we have done a detailed bottom-up analysis of (a) 1,700+ government projects that are under implementation (explaining &gt;60% of total government Capex of FY22) and (b) Capex plans of top 400+ private sector companies to better understand the drivers and likely shape of the Capex demand curve</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India’s long-awaited Capex cycle finally seems to be gathering momentum, after a hiatus of 10 yearsWhile there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for multi-year growthIn this report, we have done a detailed bottom-up analysis of (a) 1,700+ government projects that are under implementation (explaining &gt;60% of total government Capex of FY22) and (b) Capex plans of top 400+ private sector companies to better understand the drivers and likely shape of the Capex demand curveContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy - Capex: On a Sustainable Upswing

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

<ul><li>Asian Paints: Asian Paints continues to deliver robust sales growth, at 54% YoY (three year CAGR: 19%; 7% above estimates)</li><li>Decorative business clocked 37/59% volume/value growth YoY in Q1FY23 (FY19-22 volume/value CAGR: 20/0% resp)</li><li>Adjacencies continue to perform well</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asian Paints: Asian Paints continues to deliver robust sales growth, at 54% YoY (three year CAGR: 19%; 7% above estimates)Decorative business clocked 37/59% volume/value growth YoY in Q1FY23 (FY19-22 volume/value CAGR: 20/0% resp)Adjacencies continue to perform wellContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Larsen & Toubro, Aether Industries...

<ul><li>Q1 starts on a good note for infrastructure; competitive intensity cools off, commodities correct: In Q1FY23, NHAI awarded ten projects, of which, nine were HAM projects worth INR 98.1bn and one was an EPC project worth INR 7.7bn</li><li>Capital goods sector to benefit from reviving private Capex and realignment of global supply chains; strong case for PE multiple expansion</li><li>Earnings trend YoY/QoQ: We expect EPC/infra universe revenue/EBITDA/PAT to degrow 11.5/6.9/26.5% sequentially and grow 15.7/4.1/10.9% YoY, with EBITDA margin expanding by 72/(163)bps QoQ/YoY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1 starts on a good note for infrastructure; competitive intensity cools off, commodities correct: In Q1FY23, NHAI awarded ten projects, of which, nine were HAM projects worth INR 98.1bn and one was an EPC project worth INR 7.7bnCapital goods sector to benefit from reviving private Capex and realignment of global supply chains; strong case for PE multiple expansionEarnings trend YoY/QoQ: We expect EPC/infra universe revenue/EBITDA/PAT to degrow 11.5/6.9/26.5% sequentially and grow 15.7/4.1/10.9% YoY, with EBITDA margin expanding by 72/(163)bps QoQ/YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Larsen & Toubro Ltd manufactures engineering equipment, undertakes large scale engineering projects, and acts as the Indian representative for a number of overseas manufacturers of heavy machinery. The Company's products include bulldozers, road rollers, dairy machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical plants, switchgears, food processing machinery and feed milling plants.

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Larsen & Toubro (LT IN)

Infrastructure - Betting on Conservatism

Substantial dilution of bid qualification has exposed the sector to low quality, inadequately funded developers taking large order inflow market share

HDFC Securities

India Equity Strategy - Capex: On a Sustainable Upswing

While there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for...

HDFC Securities

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Larsen & Toubro, Aether Industries...

Asian Paints: Asian Paints continues to deliver robust sales growth, at 54% YoY (three year CAGR: 19%; 7% above estimates)

HDFC Securities

Industrials - Bracing for Recovery

In Q1FY23, NHAI awarded ten projects, of which, nine were HAM projects worth INR 98.1bn and one was an EPC project worth INR 7.7bn.

HDFC Securities

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