Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yanlord-land-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14152" rel="noopener">Yanlord Land (YLLG SP)</a> Mar22 contracted pre-sales rose 0.8% YoY; 1Q22 presales down 11.4% YoY </li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/las-vegas-sands-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807" rel="noopener">Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)</a> given one more year to begin construction of its S$4.5bn Marina Bay Sands extension</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-investment-ltd-si" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33774" rel="noopener">Capitaland Investment (CLI SP)</a> to issue S$400m worth of fixed rate notes at 3.33% due 2027</li></ul>

Yanlord Land (YLLG SP) Mar22 contracted pre-sales rose 0.8% YoY; 1Q22 presales down 11.4% YoY Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) given one more year to begin construction of its S$4.5bn Marina Bay Sands extensionCapitaland Investment (CLI SP) to issue S$400m worth of fixed rate notes at 3.33% due 2027

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (7Apr22) - YLLG Mar22 Presales Inched up 0.8% YoY

Marriott International / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.</li>
<li>Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.</li>
<li>The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.</li>
</ul>


While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.
Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.
The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.


Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Gaming Caught In The Crosshairs: Mainland China indicated that changes are afoot to gaming regulations, including the appointment of government officials to supervise the companies - just as Macau's lucrative gaming licenses come up for re-bidding in 2022; and*Financials Likely Next: There appears to be a genuine timeline for each sector in mainland China to be taken out to the woodshed. Now that the gaming industry is now being placed under firm control, it would appear to only be a matter of time when the financial sector will be re-configured to suit mainland China’s vision – likely ahead of the national elections in 2022.

*Gaming Caught In The Crosshairs: Mainland China indicated that changes are afoot to gaming regulations, including the appointment of government officials to supervise the companies - just as Macau's lucrative gaming licenses come up for re-bidding in 2022; and*Financials Likely Next: There appears to be a genuine timeline for each sector in mainland China to be taken out to the woodshed. Now that the gaming industry is now being placed under firm control, it would appear to only be a matter of time when the financial sector will be re-configured to suit mainland China’s vision – likely ahead of the national elections in 2022.

Mainland China – Here Comes The Rein Again

United States

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (7Apr22) - YLLG Mar22 Presales Inched up 0.8% YoY

YLLG Mar22 Presales Inched up 0.8% YoY; LVS given a year's grace for MBS extension; SMPH's to open newest mall in Roxas City; MGSB's M Arisa sees...

SCCM Asia Research

Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

We are seeing encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites, including improvement within the Discretionary, Transports, and Materials...

Vermilion Research

Mainland China – Here Comes The Rein Again

FINANCIALS IN CROSSHAIRS: Mainland China is appointing government officials to supervise the gaming companies. There appears to be a genuine...

Thomas J. Monaco

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