Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big AI related capex announced for MSFT should help buoy tech to start.</li>
<li>Room for SPE once deemed as China plays to rebound on sales diversification.</li>
<li>2024 was a big year for momentum plays and US stock moves so far seem to point to more of the same.</li>
</ul>


Big AI related capex announced for MSFT should help buoy tech to start.
Room for SPE once deemed as China plays to rebound on sales diversification.
2024 was a big year for momentum plays and US stock moves so far seem to point to more of the same.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Winners Leading Higher to Start the Year

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consistent compounders, stocks with steady earnings growth and excess returns over a long period of time, are difficult to find. It's even more difficult to find reasonably valued compounders.</li>
<li>From the universe of large Asian companies, we screen those with steady profit growth (&gt;10%) and excess returns in each of last 10 years and over next three forecast years.</li>
<li>Our list of 20 inexpensive compounders comprises 10 from onshore China, 5 from HK, 3 from India and 1 each from Japan and the Philippines.</li>
</ul>


Consistent compounders, stocks with steady earnings growth and excess returns over a long period of time, are difficult to find. It's even more difficult to find reasonably valued compounders.
From the universe of large Asian companies, we screen those with steady profit growth (&gt;10%) and excess returns in each of last 10 years and over next three forecast years.
Our list of 20 inexpensive compounders comprises 10 from onshore China, 5 from HK, 3 from India and 1 each from Japan and the Philippines.


Asian Equities: Twenty Inexpensive Consistent Compounders

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.</li>
<li>HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. </li>
<li>140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). </li>
</ul>


An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.
HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. 
140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). 


US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

<ul>
<li>US semi-cap names continuing to jump on looser US restrictions than expected.</li>
<li>See attached table for short interest levels for Japan SPE plays.</li>
<li>Gelsinger out and uncertainty up, although JP suppliers will see minimal reaction.</li>
</ul>


US semi-cap names continuing to jump on looser US restrictions than expected.
See attached table for short interest levels for Japan SPE plays.
Gelsinger out and uncertainty up, although JP suppliers will see minimal reaction.


Japan Morning Connection: Brief Respite for SPE Before Trump Likely Ratchets Higher from Jan

<ul>
<li>Nidec may be back in focus on a lifeline for SMCI and heating issues for NVDA.</li>
<li>Tesla and power-semis are both up on the self-driving U-turn.</li>
<li>No bid for JP SPE's recently, although Lasertec may still have further to fall.</li>
</ul>


Nidec may be back in focus on a lifeline for SMCI and heating issues for NVDA.
Tesla and power-semis are both up on the self-driving U-turn.
No bid for JP SPE's recently, although Lasertec may still have further to fall.


Japan Morning Connection: JP Set for a More Upbeat Start After Tech Rebound

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

Price Gauge
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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: AI Winners Leading Higher to Start the Year

MSFT's announced AI investment should buoy tech, potential for previously China SPE as they diversify, US stocks pointing to big momentum plays .

Andrew Jackson

Asian Equities: Twenty Inexpensive Consistent Compounders

Finding consistent compounders with steady earnings growth and excess returns is challenging, especially those that are reasonably valued. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: Brief Respite for SPE Before Trump Likely Ratchets Higher from Jan

US semi-cap names continue to jump on looser restrictions. Uncertainty up with Gelsinger out, but minimal impact expected on JP suppliers. See...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: JP Set for a More Upbeat Start After Tech Rebound

Nidec may be in focus on a lifeline for SMCI and NVDA's heating issues, Tesla and power-semis up on self-driving support, no bid for JP SPE's and...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: AI Winners Leading Higher to Start the Year

​MSFT's announced AI investment should buoy tech, potential for previously China SPE as they diversify, US stocks pointing to big momentum plays .

Andrew Jackson

Asian Equities: Twenty Inexpensive Consistent Compounders

​Finding consistent compounders with steady earnings growth and excess returns is challenging, especially those that are reasonably valued. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

​New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: Brief Respite for SPE Before Trump Likely Ratchets Higher from Jan

​US semi-cap names continue to jump on looser restrictions. Uncertainty up with Gelsinger out, but minimal impact expected on JP suppliers. See...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: JP Set for a More Upbeat Start After Tech Rebound

​Nidec may be in focus on a lifeline for SMCI and NVDA's heating issues, Tesla and power-semis up on self-driving support, no bid for JP SPE's and...

Andrew Jackson

MSFT's announced AI investment should buoy tech, potential for previously China SPE as they diversify, US stocks pointing to big momentum plays .

Finding consistent compounders with steady earnings growth and excess returns is challenging, especially those that are reasonably valued. We...

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

US semi-cap names continue to jump on looser restrictions. Uncertainty up with Gelsinger out, but minimal impact expected on JP suppliers. See...

Nidec may be in focus on a lifeline for SMCI and NVDA's heating issues, Tesla and power-semis up on self-driving support, no bid for JP SPE's and...