Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.</li>
<li>Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.</li>
<li>Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.</li>
</ul>


Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.
Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.
Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.</li>
<li>Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.</li>
<li>Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.</li>
</ul>


Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.
Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.
Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.


Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

<ul>
<li>News Intel may be looking to restructure and even sell its fab business, a slight negative for Japanese SPE suppliers.</li>
<li>Japan upping defence budget to a record high a positive for related names, including KHI which has been excessively weak on the news it fabricated data for marine engine business.</li>
<li>Nikkei Inc. is expected to announce results for 30th September rebalance today or tomorrow which may see big buying for the likes of Ryohin Keikaku, NRI and possibly one other.</li>
</ul>


News Intel may be looking to restructure and even sell its fab business, a slight negative for Japanese SPE suppliers.
Japan upping defence budget to a record high a positive for related names, including KHI which has been excessively weak on the news it fabricated data for marine engine business.
Nikkei Inc. is expected to announce results for 30th September rebalance today or tomorrow which may see big buying for the likes of Ryohin Keikaku, NRI and possibly one other.


Japan Morning Connection: Record Defense Budget and Nikkei Rebalance Set to Boost Related Stocks

<ul>
<li>Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.</li>
<li>Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.</li>
</ul>


Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.
Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.
Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.


Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

<ul>
<li>Plenty of names which continue to look oversold in the recent volatility after posting better than expected numbers yesterday including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/puma-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21697" rel="noopener">Puma (PUM GR)</a> -12.6% after 2Q numbers and guidance missed, setting a negative tone for sportswear including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a> which has been in play after strong earnings and recent large share placement.</li>
<li>Numbers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> point to diverging paths, which looks conducive for the 4922-4911 pair setup.</li>
</ul>


Plenty of names which continue to look oversold in the recent volatility after posting better than expected numbers yesterday including Sony Corp (6758 JP) and Lasertec Corp (6920 JP).

Puma (PUM GR) -12.6% after 2Q numbers and guidance missed, setting a negative tone for sportswear including ASICS Corp (7936 JP) which has been in play after strong earnings and recent large share placement.
Numbers for Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and Kose Corp (4922 JP) point to diverging paths, which looks conducive for the 4922-4911 pair setup.


Japan Morning Connection: 6758 JP, 6920 JP, 7936 JP

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

AI Tech rebound overnight. Oracle beats expectation setting positive tone for software. ARM and Softbank benefit with V9 chips in new iPhones.

Andrew Jackson

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

We pointed out that Japan's semi industry may be at risk as part of the "Trump Trade" sentiment. It turns out that Biden has already thrown...

David Mudd

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 6758 JP, 6920 JP, 7936 JP

Stocks like Sony and Lasertec look oversold. Puma's poor performance sets a negative tone for sportswear plays. Shiseido and Kose show diverging...

Andrew Jackson

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

AI Tech rebound overnight. Oracle beats expectation setting positive tone for software. ARM and Softbank benefit with V9 chips in new iPhones.

Andrew Jackson

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

We pointed out that Japan's semi industry may be at risk as part of the "Trump Trade" sentiment. It turns out that Biden has already thrown...

David Mudd

Japan Morning Connection: Record Defense Budget and Nikkei Rebalance Set to Boost Related Stocks

​News Intel may restructure/sell fab business, negative for Japanese SPE suppliers. Japan defense budget increase positive for related names....

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

​Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 6758 JP, 6920 JP, 7936 JP

​Stocks like Sony and Lasertec look oversold. Puma's poor performance sets a negative tone for sportswear plays. Shiseido and Kose show diverging...

Andrew Jackson

News Intel may restructure/sell fab business, negative for Japanese SPE suppliers. Japan defense budget increase positive for related names....

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Stocks like Sony and Lasertec look oversold. Puma's poor performance sets a negative tone for sportswear plays. Shiseido and Kose show diverging...