Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, there was word of an Accelerated Block Offering by two banks on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, selling ¥61+bn or US$425mm of shares.  </li>
<li>The Nikkei 225 hit a new 34-year high today, and this caused some tech stocks and high-weights to perform very well vs their peers. </li>
<li>This should cause the deal to get taken up easily. HOWEVER, it pays to know where the stock is. The register isn't what volume tells you it might be.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, there was word of an Accelerated Block Offering by two banks on Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), selling ¥61+bn or US$425mm of shares.  
The Nikkei 225 hit a new 34-year high today, and this caused some tech stocks and high-weights to perform very well vs their peers. 
This should cause the deal to get taken up easily. HOWEVER, it pays to know where the stock is. The register isn't what volume tells you it might be.


Lasertec (6920) Accelerated Block Offering - ¥60bn Likely Easily Taken Up

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>MUFG Bank and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking are looking to raise around US$425m from selling their respective stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Given the strong momentum on the stock, combined with the wave of shareholders ending their cross-shareholdings in Japan, we would argue that the deal is somewhat expected.</li>
<li>Despite the remaining overhang on the stock, the deal would be easily digested by the market as well, representing just 0.14 days of the firm’s three month ADV.</li>
</ul>


MUFG Bank and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking are looking to raise around US$425m from selling their respective stakes in Lasertec Corp (6920 JP).
Given the strong momentum on the stock, combined with the wave of shareholders ending their cross-shareholdings in Japan, we would argue that the deal is somewhat expected.
Despite the remaining overhang on the stock, the deal would be easily digested by the market as well, representing just 0.14 days of the firm’s three month ADV.


Lasertec Placement - Opportunistic Selldown Will Be Easily Digested by the Market

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/march-2024-nikkei-225-rebal-look-for-zozo-ryohin-keikaku-and-maybe-a-socionext-split" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112214" rel="noopener">March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split</a> I suggested <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> needed a stock split to get in.</li>
<li>Today after the close, Socionext reported H1, guided up full-year earnings (still too conservative), raised its div, and announced a 5:1 stock split for Jan1 2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO Corp (6146 JP)</a> is now likely to be a top 75, which leaves the question of which Consumer Goods stock would likely be added. </li>
</ul>


In March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split I suggested Socionext (6526 JP) needed a stock split to get in.
Today after the close, Socionext reported H1, guided up full-year earnings (still too conservative), raised its div, and announced a 5:1 stock split for Jan1 2024. 

DISCO Corp (6146 JP) is now likely to be a top 75, which leaves the question of which Consumer Goods stock would likely be added. 


March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco and a Consumer Goods Stock (Ryohin Keikaku?) To ADD

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ushio is making substantial investments in it core light source technologies, sacrificing short term profit for long-term growth potential.</li>
<li>Geared to rising demand for EUV mask and IC package lithography, bio-medical equipment, and solid-state light sources. Digital cinema business rebounding from COVID.</li>
<li>Selling at 21x current EPS guidance, 12x management's FY Mar-26 EPS target and 0.9x book value. Upside potential to book value while waiting for confirmation of forecast recovery.</li>
</ul>


Ushio is making substantial investments in it core light source technologies, sacrificing short term profit for long-term growth potential.
Geared to rising demand for EUV mask and IC package lithography, bio-medical equipment, and solid-state light sources. Digital cinema business rebounding from COVID.
Selling at 21x current EPS guidance, 12x management's FY Mar-26 EPS target and 0.9x book value. Upside potential to book value while waiting for confirmation of forecast recovery.


Ushio (6925 JP): Preparing for the Next Growth Cycle

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Market Watch: This week, the Topix Index gained 44pts (2%) to close at 2,309, influenced by Wall Street's response to US inflation data and expectations of extended elevated interest rates.</li>
<li>Major Movers: Lasertec (6920) surged +17%, Fast Retailing (9983) rose +12%, and Monotaro (3064) declined -18%</li>
<li>Activist Watch: ValueAct lifted its stake in Topcon. I like the LT fundamentals for the company and look forward to positive dialogue with the activist</li>
</ul>


Market Watch: This week, the Topix Index gained 44pts (2%) to close at 2,309, influenced by Wall Street's response to US inflation data and expectations of extended elevated interest rates.
Major Movers: Lasertec (6920) surged +17%, Fast Retailing (9983) rose +12%, and Monotaro (3064) declined -18%
Activist Watch: ValueAct lifted its stake in Topcon. I like the LT fundamentals for the company and look forward to positive dialogue with the activist


Japan Weekly | Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Monotaro, Topcon

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Lasertec (6920) Accelerated Block Offering - ¥60bn Likely Easily Taken Up

After the close today, a block offering in Lasertec was announced. It's 2% of shares from two bank cross-holders. 1.8mm shares so 0.2x ADV at a 3%...

Travis Lundy

Lasertec Placement - Opportunistic Selldown Will Be Easily Digested by the Market

MUFG Bank and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking are looking to raise around US$425m from selling their respective stakes in Lasertec Corp (6920 JP).

Clarence Chu

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco and a Consumer Goods Stock (Ryohin Keikaku?) To ADD

Socionext (6526) has announced a stock split. That means it is likely to get into Nikkei 225 in March 2024. Disco is now an ADD too. Zozo or Ryohin...

Travis Lundy

Ushio (6925 JP): Preparing for the Next Growth Cycle

Profits down sharply due to bottoming semiconductor cycle and investment in EUV and IC package lithography and other long-term opportunities. Huge...

Scott Foster

Japan Weekly | Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Monotaro, Topcon

Topix Index rises despite US inflation data and expectations for higher interest rates. Lasertec and Fast Retailing see gains, while Monotaro...

Mark Chadwick

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Lasertec (6920) Accelerated Block Offering - ¥60bn Likely Easily Taken Up

After the close today, a block offering in Lasertec was announced. It's 2% of shares from two bank cross-holders. 1.8mm shares so 0.2x ADV at a 3%...

Travis Lundy

Lasertec Placement - Opportunistic Selldown Will Be Easily Digested by the Market

MUFG Bank and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking are looking to raise around US$425m from selling their respective stakes in Lasertec Corp (6920 JP).

Clarence Chu

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco and a Consumer Goods Stock (Ryohin Keikaku?) To ADD

Socionext (6526) has announced a stock split. That means it is likely to get into Nikkei 225 in March 2024. Disco is now an ADD too. Zozo or Ryohin...

Travis Lundy

Ushio (6925 JP): Preparing for the Next Growth Cycle

Profits down sharply due to bottoming semiconductor cycle and investment in EUV and IC package lithography and other long-term opportunities. Huge...

Scott Foster

Japan Weekly | Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Monotaro, Topcon

​Topix Index rises despite US inflation data and expectations for higher interest rates. Lasertec and Fast Retailing see gains, while Monotaro...

Mark Chadwick

Topix Index rises despite US inflation data and expectations for higher interest rates. Lasertec and Fast Retailing see gains, while Monotaro...