Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%.  Since its inception last year, the portfolio has outperformed its benchmark by 18%.</li>
<li>Although the tech sector was hit after April 2nd, the portfolio made 2% in its tech exposure for the month.  We reduced the portfolio's volatility &amp; increased its Sharpe ratio.</li>
<li>At the end of April, sold positions that are at risk from the tariff uncertainty and increased our exposure to China domestic consumption.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%.  Since its inception last year, the portfolio has outperformed its benchmark by 18%.
Although the tech sector was hit after April 2nd, the portfolio made 2% in its tech exposure for the month.  We reduced the portfolio's volatility &amp; increased its Sharpe ratio.
At the end of April, sold positions that are at risk from the tariff uncertainty and increased our exposure to China domestic consumption.


Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global companies are shifting supply chains, adopting the "China+1" strategy, with India emerging as a significant winner, attracting manufacturing and investment across sectors like electronics, EVs, and textiles.</li>
<li>India offers a strategic alternative to China, with favorable policies, a growing domestic market, and trade advantages, positioning itself as a manufacturing hub amid global trade shifts.</li>
<li>India is no longer just a backup for China; it's becoming the primary destination for global supply chains, reshaping the manufacturing ecosystem with deepening local integration and technological advancements.</li>
</ul>


Global companies are shifting supply chains, adopting the "China+1" strategy, with India emerging as a significant winner, attracting manufacturing and investment across sectors like electronics, EVs, and textiles.
India offers a strategic alternative to China, with favorable policies, a growing domestic market, and trade advantages, positioning itself as a manufacturing hub amid global trade shifts.
India is no longer just a backup for China; it's becoming the primary destination for global supply chains, reshaping the manufacturing ecosystem with deepening local integration and technological advancements.


Global Reshuffling: Whether India Will Win from China+1?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Nvidia (NVDA, NR) disclosed that the U.S. government informed on April 9 that H20 chips will require a license for export to China and other D:5 countries, and the new requirement will be in place indefinitely.</li><li>Driven by DeepSeek’s lowcost AI models since late Jan, we see accelerated deployments of H20 servers in China, and several server ODM/component suppliers also guided strong order demand from Chinese CSPs for H20-related products.</li><li>In terms of impact, we estimate Nvidia’s inventory writedown of US$5.5bn implies US$14bn sales (GPM 60%), 1.1mn H20 chips (ASP US$12.5k) and 138k H20 AI servers (8 chips/ server). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nvidia (NVDA, NR) disclosed that the U.S. government informed on April 9 that H20 chips will require a license for export to China and other D:5 countries, and the new requirement will be in place indefinitely.Driven by DeepSeek’s lowcost AI models since late Jan, we see accelerated deployments of H20 servers in China, and several server ODM/component suppliers also guided strong order demand from Chinese CSPs for H20-related products.In terms of impact, we estimate Nvidia’s inventory writedown of US$5.5bn implies US$14bn sales (GPM 60%), 1.1mn H20 chips (ASP US$12.5k) and 138k H20 AI servers (8 chips/ server). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Implications of Nvidia H20 export restriction for AI server/component supply chain

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia Technology (1070 HK)</a> are the prime beneficiaries of Trump's tariff exemption.</li>
<li>On average, they have 24.5% of revenue from the US market, and their share price has collapsed 19.8% MTD. They are well set to have a decent rebound.</li>
<li>There will be speculations that more exemptions in other sectors will be granted, and the big losers will see a relief rally. </li>
</ul>



Lenovo (992 HK), AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Tcl Multimedia Technology (1070 HK) are the prime beneficiaries of Trump's tariff exemption.
On average, they have 24.5% of revenue from the US market, and their share price has collapsed 19.8% MTD. They are well set to have a decent rebound.
There will be speculations that more exemptions in other sectors will be granted, and the big losers will see a relief rally. 


China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries

<ul><li>Following our note last week, we received investor questions focused on 1) “20% US content rule” exemptions, 2) impact of China 34% tariff' on the US, 3) Vietnam proposed 0% tariff, 4) de-minimis rule removal, 5) bottom-fishing opportunities, and 6) company feedback/response on the new tariff. Below we offer perspectives on investor FAQs regarding the implications.</li><li>Despite sector valuation still being 15-20% away from the historical trough now, we would start to look for some quality names to accumulate on further weakness, including Xiaomi, AAC, Sunny Optical, BYDE and Q-tech.</li><li>“20% US content rule” exemptions in “Annex III” sub-document? The US White House published a sub-document, Annex II, for the US Reciprocal Tariffs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following our note last week, we received investor questions focused on 1) “20% US content rule” exemptions, 2) impact of China 34% tariff' on the US, 3) Vietnam proposed 0% tariff, 4) de-minimis rule removal, 5) bottom-fishing opportunities, and 6) company feedback/response on the new tariff. Below we offer perspectives on investor FAQs regarding the implications.Despite sector valuation still being 15-20% away from the historical trough now, we would start to look for some quality names to accumulate on further weakness, including Xiaomi, AAC, Sunny Optical, BYDE and Q-tech.“20% US content rule” exemptions in “Annex III” sub-document? The US White House published a sub-document, Annex II, for the US Reciprocal Tariffs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - US Tariff Updates: Addressing FAQs After a Volatile Day

Hong Kong

Lenovo Group Limited is a multinational technology company specializing in designing, manufacturing, and marketing consumer electronics, personal computers, software, servers, and related services. Its key products include laptops (ThinkPad, IdeaPad, Yoga, Legion), desktop computers, smartphones (Motorola Mobility), and IT infrastructure solutions. The company was founded on November 1, 1984, in Beijing, China, and has global headquarters in Beijing, China, and Morrisville, North Carolina, United States.

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Lenovo (992 HK)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (April 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%. Since its inception last year, the portfolio has...

David Mudd

Global Reshuffling: Whether India Will Win from China+1?

Global companies are turning to India as a strategic alternative to China, shifting supply chains and investments across various sectors,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Technology - Implications of Nvidia H20 export restriction for AI server/component supply chain

In terms of impact, we estimate Nvidia’s inventory writedown of US$5.5bn implies US$14bn sales (GPM 60%), 1.1mn H20 chips (ASP US$12.5k) and 138k...

CMB International

China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries

Lenovo, AAC Technologies, BYD Electronics, and Tcl Multimedia are set to benefit from Trump's tariff exemption, with potential for a rebound in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technology - US Tariff Updates: Addressing FAQs After a Volatile Day

Following our note last week, we received investor questions focused on 1) “20% US content rule” exemptions, 2) impact of China 34% tariff' on the...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (April 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%. Since its inception last year, the portfolio has...

David Mudd

Global Reshuffling: Whether India Will Win from China+1?

​Global companies are turning to India as a strategic alternative to China, shifting supply chains and investments across various sectors,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Technology - Implications of Nvidia H20 export restriction for AI server/component supply chain

In terms of impact, we estimate Nvidia’s inventory writedown of US$5.5bn implies US$14bn sales (GPM 60%), 1.1mn H20 chips (ASP US$12.5k) and 138k...

CMB International

China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries

​Lenovo, AAC Technologies, BYD Electronics, and Tcl Multimedia are set to benefit from Trump's tariff exemption, with potential for a rebound in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technology - US Tariff Updates: Addressing FAQs After a Volatile Day

Following our note last week, we received investor questions focused on 1) “20% US content rule” exemptions, 2) impact of China 34% tariff' on the...

CMB International

Global companies are turning to India as a strategic alternative to China, shifting supply chains and investments across various sectors,...

Lenovo, AAC Technologies, BYD Electronics, and Tcl Multimedia are set to benefit from Trump's tariff exemption, with potential for a rebound in...