HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With US inflation figures higher than expectations, there is an increase in risk that the Fed's next move may be a hike.  Some HSI constituents are set to benefit.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK),</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> have significant USD net cash position and will be gainers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> have large China operations but they are net long on USD balance and this will make them beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


With US inflation figures higher than expectations, there is an increase in risk that the Fed's next move may be a hike.  Some HSI constituents are set to benefit.

Orient Overseas International (316 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) have significant USD net cash position and will be gainers.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) and Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) have large China operations but they are net long on USD balance and this will make them beneficiaries.


HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Alibaba, Hua Hong Semi, Xiaomi, Kingboard Laminates, Cspc Pharma, China Life, 3Sbio.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Alibaba, Hua Hong Semi, Xiaomi, Kingboard Laminates, Cspc Pharma, China Life, 3Sbio.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, Hua Hong Semi, Xiaomi, Kingboard Laminates, Cspc Pharma, 3Sbio

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>An addition to the existing index themes will see 14 stocks added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US)</a> next week.</li>
<li>The trade is over US$2bn round-trip and there is a big funding impact for some of the existing index constituents.</li>
<li>Following the methodology change, more money could flow into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US)</a> as the free float market cap increases significantly.</li>
</ul>


An addition to the existing index themes will see 14 stocks added to the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) next week.
The trade is over US$2bn round-trip and there is a big funding impact for some of the existing index constituents.
Following the methodology change, more money could flow into the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) as the free float market cap increases significantly.


KWEB Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: 14 Adds and Over US$2bn Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 14th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage Tech, Kingboard Laminates, Minimax, Smic.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 14th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage Tech, Kingboard Laminates, Minimax, Smic.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage Tech, Kingboard Laminates, Minimax, Smic

Hong Kong

Lenovo Group Limited is a multinational technology company specializing in designing, manufacturing, and marketing consumer electronics, personal computers, software, servers, and related services. Its key products include laptops (ThinkPad, IdeaPad, Yoga, Legion), desktop computers, smartphones (Motorola Mobility), and IT infrastructure solutions. The company was founded on November 1, 1984, in Beijing, China, and has global headquarters in Beijing, China, and Morrisville, North Carolina, United States.

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Lenovo (992 HK)

HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, Hua Hong Semi, Xiaomi, Kingboard Laminates, Cspc Pharma, 3Sbio

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 21st and highlight short interest changes in Alibaba (9988 HK), Hua...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KWEB Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: 14 Adds and Over US$2bn Trade

KWEB rebalances at the close today. On average, the adds were up 2.8% on the 20th, up 3.6% on the 21st, and down 6.3% on the 24th. The funding adds...

Brian Freitas

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

HK Short Interest Weekly: Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage Tech, Kingboard Laminates, Minimax, Smic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 14th and highlight short interest changes in Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

​HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, Hua Hong Semi, Xiaomi, Kingboard Laminates, Cspc Pharma, 3Sbio

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 21st and highlight short interest changes in Alibaba (9988 HK), Hua...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KWEB Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: 14 Adds and Over US$2bn Trade

KWEB rebalances at the close today. On average, the adds were up 2.8% on the 20th, up 3.6% on the 21st, and down 6.3% on the 24th. The funding adds...

Brian Freitas

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

HK Short Interest Weekly: Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage Tech, Kingboard Laminates, Minimax, Smic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 14th and highlight short interest changes in Jd.Com, Ntes, Montage...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...