Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group / Technical Analysis

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (603501 CH)

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ducommun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6622:1" rel="noopener">Ducommun</a> will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 18 September, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/droneshield-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30509:1" rel="noopener">DroneShield</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-cat-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37829:1" rel="noopener">Red Cat Holdings</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$695m.</li>
<li>Float and capping changes result in over 0.5x ADV to trade in some stocks and those could be interesting in the next week.</li>
</ul>



Ducommun will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 18 September, while DroneShield and Red Cat Holdings will be deleted.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$695m.
Float and capping changes result in over 0.5x ADV to trade in some stocks and those could be interesting in the next week.


MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 1 Add; 2 Deletes; US$695m Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kongsberg-gruppen-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22235:1" rel="noopener">Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG NO)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tkms-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46044:1" rel="noopener">TKMS (TKMS GR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/v2x-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20443:1" rel="noopener">V2X (VVX US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voyager-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45210:1" rel="noopener">Voyager Technologies (VOYG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-cat-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37829:1" rel="noopener">Red Cat Holdings (RCAT US)</a> will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index.</li>
<li>The 5 adds, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$830m.</li>
<li>Most adds have traded higher over the last few months with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/v2x-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20443:1" rel="noopener">V2X</a> breaking out to new highs and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voyager-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45210:1" rel="noopener">Voyager Technologies</a> nearing its earlier highs. Positioning could be unwound into strength.</li>
</ul>



Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG NO), TKMS (TKMS GR), V2X (VVX US), Voyager Technologies (VOYG US) and Red Cat Holdings (RCAT US) will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index.
The 5 adds, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$830m.
Most adds have traded higher over the last few months with V2X breaking out to new highs and Voyager Technologies nearing its earlier highs. Positioning could be unwound into strength.


MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 5 Adds; 5.3% Turnover; US$830m Trade

Italy

Leonardo is an Italian multinational company specializing in aerospace, defense, and security. It designs, develops, and manufactures a wide range of products including helicopters, aircraft, aerostructures, electronics, and cybersecurity solutions. The company is headquartered in Rome, Italy, and was founded in 1948 as Finmeccanica.

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Leonardo (LDO IM)

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 1 Add; 2 Deletes; US$695m Trade

1 add, 2 deletes, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$695m....

Brian Freitas

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 5 Adds; 5.3% Turnover; US$830m Trade

The 5 adds, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.3% and in a round-trip trade of US$830m. Multiple days...

Brian Freitas

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