Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The weak USD, as US growth peaks and yields decline, is helping  international markets</li>
<li>Can Hong Kong and China stock markets decouple from a US bear market?</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The weak USD, as US growth peaks and yields decline, is helping  international markets
Can Hong Kong and China stock markets decouple from a US bear market?


Overview #18 - Tipping Point Arrived for Major Trend Changes?

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following existing home last week, new home sales also posted positive YoY growth. </li>
<li>LI is getting ready for its major battle of the year with BEV launch. It is focused, but we doubt it is enough;</li>
<li>MNSO guided down its C4Q24 and we believe it will miss 2025 as well. Offline grocery is under constant assault by O2O and online e-commerce. </li>
</ul>


Following existing home last week, new home sales also posted positive YoY growth. 
LI is getting ready for its major battle of the year with BEV launch. It is focused, but we doubt it is enough;
MNSO guided down its C4Q24 and we believe it will miss 2025 as well. Offline grocery is under constant assault by O2O and online e-commerce. 


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. </li>
<li>More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, and even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. 
More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), and even Hang Lung Properties (101 HK). 

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect Meituan (3690 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's secular bull market gained after DeepSeek's announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:492:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)</a> broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-cloud-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36647:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK)</a> is benefiting from the AI rally.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> shares to fall.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's secular bull market gained after DeepSeek's announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.

Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm.  Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.

BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent, China Mobile, Innovent Bio, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent, China Mobile, Innovent Bio, Zijin Mining.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 11th): Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent

China

Li Auto Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles, including extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Their product line includes multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Li Auto (2015 HK)

Overview #18 - Tipping Point Arrived for Major Trend Changes?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Can HK/China stockmarkets decouple from a US bear market

Rikki Malik

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

HK stocks gained momentum after the DeepSeek announcement. Kingsoft shares broke out to new highs after announcing that WPS had DAUs of 100mm. BYD...

David Mudd

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 11th): Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Overview #18 - Tipping Point Arrived for Major Trend Changes?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Can HK/China stockmarkets decouple from a US bear market

Rikki Malik

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

​Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

​"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)

HK stocks gained momentum after the DeepSeek announcement. Kingsoft shares broke out to new highs after announcing that WPS had DAUs of 100mm. BYD...

David Mudd

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 11th): Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...