Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

SBI (State Bank of India) / Equity Bottom-Up

*Better Bottom-line Doesn’t Tell Entire Story: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 55.8 bn, increasing INR 10.1 bn (22.1%) linked quarter. On top of a significant (albeit completely unwarranted) INR 55.0 bn (58.1%) decline in loss provisions, results were also highlighted by a turnaround in SBI’s operating jaws which are now positive; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: While we note a net recovery of INR 48.4 bn (likely a non-recurring event given the exorbitant credit risk), we still find that net new NPLs increased INR 145.7 bn for an annualized increase of 41.6%.  By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 bn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap.

*Better Bottom-line Doesn’t Tell Entire Story: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 55.8 bn, increasing INR 10.1 bn (22.1%) linked quarter. On top of a significant (albeit completely unwarranted) INR 55.0 bn (58.1%) decline in loss provisions, results were also highlighted by a turnaround in SBI’s operating jaws which are now positive; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: While we note a net recovery of INR 48.4 bn (likely a non-recurring event given the exorbitant credit risk), we still find that net new NPLs increased INR 145.7 bn for an annualized increase of 41.6%.  By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 bn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap. 

*Challenged Again: HDFC Ltd (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 29.3 bn, marginally increasing INR 557 mn (1.9%) on a linked quarter basis. However, core operating results came in at INR 25.4 bn, declining INR 1.7 bn (6.1%) over the same period – despite net interest income improving INR 4.0 bn (11.2%) off of a 30 bp NIM improvement to 3.00% and loan growth of 1.9%; and*Credit Quality Reverses Course: Given the INR 2.3 bn in NCOs during FY 3Q21, net new NPLs accelerated to INR 8.5 bn and increased 32.5% on an annualized basis. We would have preferred that HDFC be even more vigilant given the continued uncertainty with COVID-19. As such, we still find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 60 bn or just over two quarters of core operating results.

*Challenged Again: HDFC Ltd (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 29.3 bn, marginally increasing INR 557 mn (1.9%) on a linked quarter basis. However, core operating results came in at INR 25.4 bn, declining INR 1.7 bn (6.1%) over the same period – despite net interest income improving INR 4.0 bn (11.2%) off of a 30 bp NIM improvement to 3.00% and loan growth of 1.9%; and*Credit Quality Reverses Course: Given the INR 2.3 bn in NCOs during FY 3Q21, net new NPLs accelerated to INR 8.5 bn and increased 32.5% on an annualized basis. We would have preferred that HDFC be even more vigilant given the continued uncertainty with COVID-19. As such, we still find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 60 bn or just over two quarters of core operating results.

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)</a> reported its Q3FY21 earnings last week. Below we discuss key updates relating to the same and also share our outlook going forward. Note that we had been bullish on LICHF since our initiation note - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2020-high-conviction-lic-housing-finance-a-growth-compounder-ripe-for-re-rating" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35482" rel="noopener">2020 High Conviction: LIC Housing Finance: A Growth Compounder Ripe for Re-Rating</a> -  in Dec 2019, when we pitched it as a high conviction idea for 2020. Due to COVID disruptions, our thesis got derailed and delayed by a year. However, all the stars seem to be aligning now in favor of LICHF. We believe that from here on, LICHF presents an attractive risk/reward (50%+ upside potential) with visible catalysts.

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) reported its Q3FY21 earnings last week. Below we discuss key updates relating to the same and also share our outlook going forward. Note that we had been bullish on LICHF since our initiation note - 2020 High Conviction: LIC Housing Finance: A Growth Compounder Ripe for Re-Rating -  in Dec 2019, when we pitched it as a high conviction idea for 2020. Due to COVID disruptions, our thesis got derailed and delayed by a year. However, all the stars seem to be aligning now in favor of LICHF. We believe that from here on, LICHF presents an attractive risk/reward (50%+ upside potential) with visible catalysts.

LIC Housing Finance | Earnings Update & Outlook - All Stars Are Aligning!

Last year, around the same time i.e. in Feb 2020, there were <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/lic-housing-cracks-12-as-reports-suggest-merger-with-idbi-bank-on-fast-track/articleshow/74168757.cms?from=mdr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rumors</a> floating in the market regarding possible merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)</a>  and IDBI Bank as LIC geared up for its IPO. With clarifications in the Budget speech regarding privatization of IDBI Bank, any such rumors are now clear and should no longer pose a overhang for LICHF's stock.

Last year, around the same time i.e. in Feb 2020, there were rumors floating in the market regarding possible merger of LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)  and IDBI Bank as LIC geared up for its IPO. With clarifications in the Budget speech regarding privatization of IDBI Bank, any such rumors are now clear and should no longer pose a overhang for LICHF's stock.

Budget Impact | LIC Housing Finance - Removal of a Key Risk

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Home First Finance / Equity Capital Markets

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Home First Finance (HFF), an affordable housing finance company targeting first time home buyers in low and middle-income groups, raised around US$160m in its India IPO. It is backed by True North, GIC and Bessemer and has recently obtained an investment from Warburg Pincus as well.
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I have covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/home-first-finance-pre-ipo-riding-on-affordable-housing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Home First Finance Pre-IPO - Riding on affordable housing</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/home-first-finance-pre-ipo-earnings-not-showing-the-covid-strain-but-other-metrics-are" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Home First Finance Pre-IPO - Earnings not showing the COVID strain but other metrics are</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/home-first-finance-ipo-it-s-not-really-cheap-banking-on-momentum" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Home First Finance IPO - It’s Not Really Cheap, Banking on Momentum</a>.
In this note, I'll talk about deal updates and provide a table with implied valuations at different share price levels.
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Home First Finance (HFF), an affordable housing finance company targeting first time home buyers in low and middle-income groups, raised around US$160m in its India IPO. It is backed by True North, GIC and Bessemer and has recently obtained an investment from Warburg Pincus as well.


I have covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes,  Home First Finance Pre-IPO - Riding on affordable housing,  Home First Finance Pre-IPO - Earnings not showing the COVID strain but other metrics are and Home First Finance IPO - It’s Not Really Cheap, Banking on Momentum.
In this note, I'll talk about deal updates and provide a table with implied valuations at different share price levels.


Home First Finance IPO Trading - Hot Space but Limited Discount

India

LIC Housing Finance Limited provides housing finance services to individuals for purchase, construction, repair and renovation of new or existing flats and houses. The Company also provides finance on existing property for business, personal needs and gives loans to professionals for purchase, construction of clinics, nursing homes, diagnostic centers, and office space throughout India.

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LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)

State Bank of India – Bad Credit

STATE BANK OF INDIA: SBI reported FY 3Q21 result increase of 22.1%) linked quarter led by a completely unwarranted 58.1% decline in provisions and...

Thomas J. Monaco

HDFC – Credit Turn

HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORP: HDFC reported FY 3Q21 core results decline of 6.1%. Net new NPLs accelerated 32.5%, and reserves light by over...

Thomas J. Monaco

LIC Housing Finance | Earnings Update & Outlook - All Stars Are Aligning!

We pitched LICHF as a high conviction idea for 2020. Due to COVID disruptions, our thesis got derailed and delayed by a year. However, all stars...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Budget Impact | LIC Housing Finance - Removal of a Key Risk

With clarifications in the Budget speech regarding privatization of IDBI Bank, a key risk for LICHF's shareholders is now removed.

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Home First Finance IPO Trading - Hot Space but Limited Discount

Home First Finance, an affordable housing finance company targeting first time home buyers in low and middle-income groups, raised around US$160m...

Sumeet Singh

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