Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a> will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Index trackers will need to sell a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light&amp;Wonder (LNW US)</a> at the close on 12 November. The buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light&amp;Wonder (LNW AU)</a> is a lot smaller.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> trades at a much lower forward PE compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aristocrat-leisure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10303:1" rel="noopener">Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU)</a> and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU). 
Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&amp;Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&amp;Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.

Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.


Light & Wonder (LNW AU): Index Implications of NASDAQ Delisting & ASX Primary Listing

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance, EQ Resources.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance, EQ Resources.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 18th): Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.</li>
<li>What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.</li>
<li>The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.</li>
</ul>


Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.
What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.
The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.


Evolution Four Years Later: The Earnings Thesis Worked. The Multiple Did Not.

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 11th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Light &amp; Wonder, Northern Star Resources, Predictive Discovery, Nextdc, Sigma Pharmaceuticals.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 11th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Light &amp; Wonder, Northern Star Resources, Predictive Discovery, Nextdc, Sigma Pharmaceuticals.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 11th): Light & Wonder, Northern Star Resources, Predictive Discovery

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter Securities is a leading Australian stockbroking, investment and financial advisory firm that provides a comprehensive offering of financial services to individuals, institutions and corporations. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>AFI commenced operations in 1928 and is Australia’s largest listed investment entity by market capitalisation.</li><li>The Company adopts a long-term perspective that emphasises ‘quality’ investments, with a focus on efficient after-tax returns for shareholders.</li><li>The fixed cost base also enables for the provision of a highly competitive, low-cost investment vehicle, and with no ongoing management or performance fees attributable to an external manager. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

AFI commenced operations in 1928 and is Australia’s largest listed investment entity by market capitalisation.The Company adopts a long-term perspective that emphasises ‘quality’ investments, with a focus on efficient after-tax returns for shareholders.The fixed cost base also enables for the provision of a highly competitive, low-cost investment vehicle, and with no ongoing management or performance fees attributable to an external manager. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

Light & Wonder Inc. provides gambling products and services. The Company creates content and products for land-based casino gaming, social, and digital organizations. Light & Wonder serves customers worldwide.

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Light & Wonder (LNW AU)