Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven



For the month of January, 22 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$52bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.





New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 
Waste collection
1.8
Scheme
19.8%



Bingo Industries (ASX: BIN): Talking Trash
Bingo Industries (BIN AU): CPE/MIRA's Scavenger Hunt




Hong Kong




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 
Construction
0.4
Merger by Absorption
45.1%



China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Possible Offer
China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent




Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) 
Real Estate
0.4
Scheme
61.3%


Polytec Asset (208 HK): Offer By Way Of A Scheme



HKC Holdings (190 HK) 
Holding Co.
0.2
Scheme
120.39%



China Renewable Energy (987 HK): Possible Privatisation Offer
HKC (190 HK): Take-Private Offer By Way Of A Scheme




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 
Hospitality
0.25
Scheme-like
14.3%


New Century (1275 HK): Closing Down Sale



Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 
Real estate
0.1
Scheme
62.5%


Rivera (281 HK): Scheme Or Face Delisting



China Traditional Chinese (570 HK) 
TCM
3.0
??
??


Trad Chi Med (570 HK): Sinopharm's Feverish Proposal



Zhejiang New Century Hotel (1158 HK) 
Hospitality
0.65
Merger by Absorption
24.7%


Zhejiang New Century (1158 HK): Pre-Conditional Offer



Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) 
Ports
0.2
Scheme
37.8%


Zhuhai Holdings (908 HK): Zhuhai SASAC Reloads With Scheme Offer



India




Engineers India (ENGR IN) 
Engineering
0.1
Buyback tender
10%


Hefty Engineers India Buyback Tender - Worth The Arb If You Own



Japan




Tokyo Rope Mfg (5981 JP) 
Wire rope
0.2
Partial
39%



Nippon Steel's HOSTILE Partial Tender Offer for Tokyo Rope: A Move to Mark Territory?
New Money for Old Rope? Gaming Out A Hostile Partial Offer on Tokyo Rope (5981)




Singapore




CEI Limited (CEI SP) 
Electronics
0.1
VGO
16.2%


CEI Limited (CEI SP): Privatization Deal by AEM Holdings (AEM SP) Trading with a View to Complete



GL Ltd (GLL SP) 
Hospitality
0.2
VGO
25.0%


GL Limited (GLL SP): Privatisation Offer Renews Interest In Guoco



Penguin International (PBS SP) 
Boat builder
0.1
VGO
30%


Penguin International (PBS SP): Friendly Privatization Deal Might Need A Bump



Europe




CA Immobilien Anlagen AG (CAI AV) 
Real estate
3.8
Offer
16.9%


CA Immo - Starwood: Mandatory Offer



Carrefour SA (CA FP) 
Convenience
20.0
Merger
29.3%


Carrefour - Alimentation Couche-Tard Non-Binding Offer



Enlabs AB (NLAB SS) 
Sports betting
0.3
Offer
1.1%


Enlabs - Entain Beefing Up



Entain (ENT LN) 
Entertainment
11.0
Offer
22%


MGM's Prospective Offer for Entain



Liberbank SA (LBK SM) 
Financing
0.9
Merger



Liberbank - Unicaja Agreed Merger



Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) 
Energy
6.0
Partial offer
20%


IFM Investors to Launch a Partial Hostile Tender Offer for Naturgy



Handicare Group AB (HANDI SS) 
Medi aid
0.4
Offer
22.0%


Handicare - Savaria: Recommended Offer



Tikkurila Oyj (TIK1V FH) 
Paints
1.7
Offer
84.5%


Akzo Nobel Tops PPG's Offer for Tikkurila


Source: Smartkarma Insights




The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~35%. This compared to the average premium in 2020 and 2019 of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in January of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar


(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

21-Jan: Non-binding term sheet entered into




amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 

18-Jan:
WAM Capital Ltd (WAM AU) has bumped its Offer for amaysim Australia (AYS AU) to 1 new WAM share for every 2.675 AYS share; or A$0.70/share cash per share, from 1 new WAM share for every 2.7 AYS share; or A$0.695/share cash per share. AYS' largest shareholder, Longfrist with 19.19%, supports WAM's Offer.




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

27-Jan: Independent board rejects non-binding proposal




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

27-Jan: Shandong to compulsory acquire shares. Shares to be cease trading on the 3 Feb




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

6-Jan: Coca-Cola Amatil Takeover Offer: A Bump Forthcoming?




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

3-Jan: SS&amp;C withdraws proposal for Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU).




Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 

20-Jan Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU)withdraws




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

20-Jan: Think Childcare (TNK AU): Bigger Bid by Busy Bees




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

No January update




WPP PLC (WPP LN) 

No January update










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

31-Dec: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Doc Out. IFA Says Fair &amp; Reasonable
11-Jan: As expected, SAIF (6.13% of total issued H  shares, and 11.53% of independent H shares; and Goldwind (2.83% &amp; 5.32% respectively) have given letters of intent to support the Offer. 
25-Jan:Quiddity M&amp;A : A Guide To Mergers By Absorption




Car Inc (699 HK) 

7-Jan: Car Inc (699 HK):  Are We Missing Anything?
26-Jan: Car Inc (699 HK):  No, We Are Not Missing Anything




China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) 

18-Jan: Bloomberg is reporting that Blackstone Group Inc., ESR Cayman Ltd., and JD Logistics Inc. are among bidders for control of China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK). Meituan (3690 HK) is also reportedly in the mix.




Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) 

1-Jan: Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) delays the dispatch of the Composite Doc to the 22 January. 
15-Jan: Doc issued. Fist close is the 5 Feb




Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 

27-Jan: Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 

20-Jan: Pre-cons satisfied. 




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

11-Jan: Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) shareholders approved the merger. 12 Jan was the last day of trading. 




SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 

No January update




Tonly Electronics Holdings (1249 HK) 

29-Jan: Tonly Electronics (1249 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair




China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK) 

18-Jan:  Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK): Doc Out. Compulsory Acquisition Afforded










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No January update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No January update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

11-Jan: Vedanta (VEDL IN) Promoter To Launch an Open Offer To Buy More










Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No January update



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No January update




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

11-Dec: City Index Eleventh is now 14.91% of the register at Japan Asia (3751 JP).
18-Jan: Murakami Fund's Tender for JAG (3751):  May Be Rangebound Near-Term
26-Jan: Japan Asia Group (3751): Murakami Wins the Mother Of All Bumps +100% 




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

4-Jan: Black Clover today reported they owned 12.29% of Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 
23-Jan: Joban Kaihatsu MBO Price Bumped, Tender Extended: Still Not Rolling In Clover




Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

13-Jan Tender offer fails. Funny that. 




Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 

9-Jan: Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) reported  that SMFL MIrai Partners had completed the Tender Offer for Kenedix shares and ended up with 62.35%
12-Jan: FTSE announced today that it would reduce the weight of Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) in its index from 97.7309% to 34.90958490918% while keeping the share count unchanged at 218,917,200 shares. The change takes place at the close of business on the 14th of January




Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

Delisted 13 January




Pressance Corp (3254 JP) 

17-Jan: Pressance Partial Tender - Almost EVERYONE Tendered




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

Delisted on Jan 19




Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 

19-Jan: Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) announced the results of its Tender Offer for Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP). That will trigger an EGM and a resulting squeezeout.  It will also trigger a FTSE and MSCI downweight.




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 

13-Jan: Toa Oil (5008) Tender Offer Update - Looks Bumpity
14-Jan: Cornwall Capital announced it had increased its position in Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) from 20.86% (as of the last report) to 21.89% (as of the 6th of January). 
28-Jan: Cornwall Capital announced it had increased its position to 22.98%










Malaysia


Comments (with links to insights)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

No January update




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 

26-Jan: FGV (FGB MK): IFA Says Offer Not Fair








New Zealand


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 

28-Jan: Announced a strategic review of 51%-held Trustpower Ltd (TPW NZ) 








Philippines


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 

21-Jan: Tender Offer report despatched. Closing date is the 19 Feb,










Singapore


Comments 




Hi P International (HIP SP) 

No January update




Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 

24-Jan: First court hearing to be held on the 8 Feb.








Taiwan


Comments (with links to insights)




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 

6-Jan: Fubon Financial Offer for Jih Sun Gets Even Weirder
7-Jan: Taiwanese news agency CNA has said that the FSC is investigating whether or not Capital Target Limited and its Responsible Officer Derek MD Chen (who I had believed to be the Responsible Person) is indeed the controller of Capital Target Limited.




Thinflex Corp (3144 TT) 

Tender Offer was completed, 100% pro-ration. (Japanese)













Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


22-Jan: Offer declared unconditional




Calisen PLC (1779730D LN) 


18-Jan: Sche doc issued




Entra ASA (ENTRA NO) 

No January update




KAZ Minerals (KAZ LN) 

25-Jan:  KAZ Minerals




Siltronic AG (WAF GR) 

25-Jan: GlobalWafers Ups Offer for Siltronic




Recipharm AB (RECIB SS) 
28-Jan: Roar bumps Offer



RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
No January update



Tele Columbus AG (TC1 GR) 
No January update



Veolia Environnement SA (VIE FP) 
11-Jan: Veolia Steps up Pressure on Suez







For the month of December, 19 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 
Toiletries
0.3
Possible Scheme
24.7%


Asaleo (ASX: AHY)/Essity: Bottom Feeders







amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 
Mobile operator
0.2
Off-market takeover




Amaysim/WAM: A Question Of Franking Credits
Amaysim (AYS AU): A WAM RAM Stoush




WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) 
Marketing
0.1
Scheme
71%



WPP AUNZ: Mad Men At Work WPP AUNZ: More Mad Men At Work







Hong Kong




China Logistics Property (1589 HK) 
Logistics

Possible Offer



China Logistics (1589 HK): Possible Offer As Major Shareholders Seek Exit



Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) 
Parts supplier
0.6
Possible MGO
2.98%


Cowell (1415 HK): "Maintain Listing" MGO



Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 
Service provider
0.1
Scheme
26.8%



Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Scheme Offer
Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Early Withdrawal?




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 
Fashion
0.2
Scheme
54.6%


I.T. (999 HK): Management/CVC-Led Offer



SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 
Securities
0.1
Scheme
50.0%


SHK (666 HK): Allied Group Further Cleans House With Scheme Offer






Japan




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 
Refiner
0.2
Tender Offer
23%


Idemitsu Launches Lowball Tender Offer for Subsidiary Toa Oil (5008)










Malaysia




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 
Palm Plantation
0.6
MTO
2.4%



FGV Holdings: Reading the Palm Fronds
FGV Holdings: Low-Ball MTO Triggered











New Zealand




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 
Utilities
3.8
Possible Scheme
22.2%


Infratil (IFT NZ): Big Super's Infrastructure Grab






Philippines




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 
Utilities
0.2
Vol. delisting
25%


Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM): Reverse Voluntary Delisting










Singapore




Hi P International (HIP SP) 
Manufacturing
0.2
Unconditional Offer
13.6%


Hi-P International: Unconditional Offer



Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 
REIT
0.4
Scheme



Soilbuild REIT: Offer From Blackstone/Lim Family










Taiwan




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 
Finance
1.8
Tender Offer
18.7%


Fubon Financial Tender Offer for Jih Sun Financial



Thinflex Corp (3144 TT) 
Manufacturing
0.1
Partial Offer
7.15%


Arisawa (5208 JP) Partial Tender for ThinFlex (3144 TT)










Europe




Calisen PLC (1779730D LN) 
Energy
1.9
Cash Offer
26.3%


Recommended Private Equity Cash Offer



Recipharm AB (RECIB SS) 
Pharmaceuticals
2.8
Mandatory Offer
22.9%


Recipharm-EQT Takeout



Tele Columbus AG (TC1 GR) 
Fibre networks
0.5
Voluntary Offer
41.3%


Tele Columbus AG - Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Agreed Bid


Source: Smartkarma Insights 




The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~27% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on Smartkarma (158 all-in) is ~31%.  The average for all deals discussed on Smartkarma in 2019 (145 deals all-in) was, coincidentally, 31.5%.


The charts below provide a snapshot of deals YTD discussed on Smartkarma. Where the deal is a merger of equals or similar, I've assigned no premium.







Summary of News in December of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No December update




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

23-Dec: Cardinal Resources: Shandong's Indicative Bump
24-Dec: Cardinal Resources (CDV AU). Exit Nord Gold, Enter Dongshan.




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

No December update




DWS Ltd (DWS AU) 

24-Dec: Scheme effective




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

7-Dec: Link Admin (LNK AU): SS&amp;C Trumps PEP/Carlyle




Northern Star Resources (NST AU) 

10-Dec: Scheme book registered with ASIC for the Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) / Northern Star Resources (NST AU) merger. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 

No December update




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

No December update




Village Roadshow (VRL AU) 

4-Dec: BGH declares Offer for Village Roadshow (VRL AU) "best and final".   7-Dec: Both resolutions passed - 83.71% for Structure A and 84.95% for Structure B. Trading in Village Roadshow (VRL AU) to be suspended at the close of trading on the 16 December. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

No December update











Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

8-Dec: Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK)'s composite doc delayed, as expected, to 31 Dec (on or before), from 8 Dec.
31-Dec: Composite doc is now out. THe H share class meeting is the 19 Feb. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable. 




Car Inc (699 HK) 
4-Dec: Car Inc (699 HK) has delayed the despatch of its Composite Doc to "within 7 days of fulfilment of the Pre-Conditions or 21 May 2021 (being 7 days following the No December update



CIMC-TianDa Holdings (445 HK) 
24-Dec: Scheme approved




Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) 

10-Dec: StubWorld: Last Roll Of The Dice For Haier




Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) 

22-Dec: Scheme Document has now been issued. The EGM is the 13 January. First day of dealing in the new SDGM H shares is the 5 February. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

5-Dec: Pre-cons fulfilled for the Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) Offer. Composite Doc to be despatched on or before the 11 December. 
10-Dec: Offer doc despatched.




Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) 

18-Dec: The MGO for Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) has closed with Alibaba holding 83.37%. The free float has fallen to 15.8159%. Alibaba will take steps to restore the float. Shares will continue to trade. 












India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No December update




Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) 

No December update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

2-Dec: INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) has been on a tear since just before earnings on 10 November.  The stock is up nearly 40% since the beginning of November.  Standalone net profit rose 262%yoy in the quarter to Rs 35.84 crore. Sales were down 10%yoy to Rs 394.58 crore.











Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No December update



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No December update




Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) 

9-Dec: The results of the Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) Tender Offer have been announced. 7.161mm shares were tendered against a 5.209mm share buy which means a 72.75% pro-ration. 




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

11-Dec: City Index Eleventh is now 14.91% of the register at Japan Asia (3751 JP).




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

25-Dec: The bidder for Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) announced a change in the end date for the Tender Offer, changing the end date from 28 December 2020 to 25 January 2021.  28-Dec: Today Black Clover Limited reported that they had increased their position in Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) to 10.97%. 




Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP) 

10-Dec: The Tender Offer for Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP), interestingly, ended up gaining more shares tendered than the minimum. 34.44mm showed up. The pro-ration is 100% so no issues there, but it likely means other cross-holders decided to take the cash.




Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

17-Dec:  UGS and Strategic extended their partial tender offer for Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) from 17 Dec 2020 to 12 Jan 2021. It is not clear why - if the shares fall a bit, they could get hit, otherwise this is destined to be unsuccessful. 




Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 

7-Dec: Fidelity was a 9+% holder of Kenedix Inc (4321 JP)  prior to the Tender Offer being launched and today reported that they are a 0.92% holder triggered by a change effective on 30 November.




Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

No December update




NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) 

2-Dec: The NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) selldown for TOPIX was expected to be 30-33mm shares. We saw 34.8mm shares on the day which is about 26-28mm shares more than normal. That should be the last of the Docomo selling by passive. From now until month-end it is basically just the residual and arbs selling to each other.




Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) 

11-Dec: It appears that DCM Holdings (3050 JP) has not extended the Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) which they had extended until today.  That suggests they are done with their bid, or that they will go in partnership to launch a new one.  I expect it is the former.
14-Dec: DCM Holdings (3050 JP)'s Tender Offer lapses.  They needed 19+mm shares to succeed. They got 32,000.  Nothing done here.  It looks like Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)'s bid for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) goes through.
29-Dec: Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) today announced that it had successfully completed the Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP), gaining 77.04% of the shares outstanding. 




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

No December update




Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) 

No December update




Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 

1-Dec: Tokyo Dome – Assessing the Realism of Oasis Estimates
3-Dec: ISS Takes Umbrage with Tokyo Dome, Recommends Booting the CEO from the Board
8-Dec: Oasis Agrees To Tender Tokyo Dome (9681) - This Changes Things
17-Dec: Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) announces Tender Agreement with Oasis on Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 




Yomiuri Land (9671 JP) 

No December update










Malaysia


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

No December update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (SSREITR SP) 

6-Dec: Chalk one up for investors as the ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT (SSREIT SP) merger is voted down.













Thailand


Comments 




COL PCL (COL TB) 
No December update












Middle East


Comments 




Samba Financial Group (SAMBA AB) /
National Commercial Bank (NCB AB) 

No December update










Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Ahlstrom-Munksjo (AM1 FH) 
No December update



Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


16-Dec: Next Private increases offer price to EUR 5.35 Boussard &amp; Gavaudan, Diameter, Elliott, LB Partners, Lucerne, Sessa, Sheffield and Winterbrook commit to tender their Listed Shares under the Offer.




Aryzta AG (ARYN VX) 


No December update




CaixaBank SA (CABK SM) 
7-Dec: CaixaBank - Bankia: Merger Approval at the EGMs, Spread




Entra ASA (ENTRA NO) 

28-Dec: Entra - SBB - Castellum: Bidding War Heats Up




G4S PLC (GFS LN) 

2-Dec: GardaWorld has increased its offer for G4S PLC (GFS LN) to GBp 235/ share and has said that the new offer is final and will not be increased further.
8-Dec: G4S has agreed to a 245 pence per share takeover offer from U.S.-based Allied Universal, the companies said on Tuesday, days after Canada’s GardaWorld had sweetened its bid to 235 pence per share for the British company.
11-Dec: Allied Universal's Agreed Offer




Globalwafers (6488 TT) 
21-Dec: GlobalWafers Cash Offer




Play Communications SA (1P1 GR) 
No December update



RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
No December update



Talktalk Telecom (TALK LN) 
No December update



William Hill (WMH LN) 
No December update





Last Week in Event SPACE: Haier, Tokyo Dome, Cowell, Infratil, Link Admin, Sapporo/Asahi, Mcdonald's

<div>
<p>On the 12 October,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02292481-2A1255763?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising PEP and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. The indicative cash price was A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close. Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>On the 23 October, Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02297758-2A1258281?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the proposal from PEP/Carlyle "<em>materially undervalued the company</em>". </div>
<div></div>
<div>Three days later PEP/Carlyle <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02298663-2A1258716?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tabled</a> a A$5.40/share non-binding indicative Offer, in cash. The proposal includes an option of a cash offer for Link ex-Property Exchange Australia (PEXA) of A$3.80/share, along with the ability to take an indirect interest in PEXA. Shareholders with <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02298654-2A1258715?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">14.62%</a> of shares out stated their intention to vote in favour of PEP/Carlyle's latest proposal, in the absence of a superior offer.</div>
<div></div>
</div>
<div>
<p>PEP/Carlyle said it required six weeks of due diligence, and if DD access was not provided by the 28 October, they would walk. Link <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02300645-2A1259592?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">responded</a> that the proposal was not compelling - but gave the consortium DD access nonetheless.</p>
<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>Software provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> has now pitched a non-binding indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, at A$5.65/share, 4.6% above PEP/Carlyle's proposal.</p>
<p>Conditions to this proposal largely mirror that of PEP/Carlyle's: confirmatory DD, obtaining debt financing, FIRB (and ACCC). And no further dividends.</p>
<p>Less than six weeks ago, Link's board said a $5.40/share Offer did not represent compelling value for Link. It is difficult to believe an offer 4.6% higher will change that view.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


On the 12 October,  Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) announced a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium comprising PEP and the Carlyle Group, by way of a Scheme. The indicative cash price was A$5.20/share, a 30% premium to last close. Perpetual, holding 9.65% of shares out, said it would vote for a firm Offer of $5.20/share and above.


On the 23 October, Link said the proposal from PEP/Carlyle "materially undervalued the company". 

Three days later PEP/Carlyle tabled a A$5.40/share non-binding indicative Offer, in cash. The proposal includes an option of a cash offer for Link ex-Property Exchange Australia (PEXA) of A$3.80/share, along with the ability to take an indirect interest in PEXA. Shareholders with 14.62% of shares out stated their intention to vote in favour of PEP/Carlyle's latest proposal, in the absence of a superior offer.



PEP/Carlyle said it required six weeks of due diligence, and if DD access was not provided by the 28 October, they would walk. Link responded that the proposal was not compelling - but gave the consortium DD access nonetheless.
The New News
Software provider Ss&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) has now pitched a non-binding indicative proposal, by way of Scheme, at A$5.65/share, 4.6% above PEP/Carlyle's proposal.
Conditions to this proposal largely mirror that of PEP/Carlyle's: confirmatory DD, obtaining debt financing, FIRB (and ACCC). And no further dividends.
Less than six weeks ago, Link's board said a $5.40/share Offer did not represent compelling value for Link. It is difficult to believe an offer 4.6% higher will change that view.
More below the fold.


Link Admin (LNK AU): SS&C Trumps PEP/Carlyle

Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy / Event-Driven


For the month of November, 18 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia



Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 
Retirement
0.4
Poss. Scheme
25%


Regis Healthcare (REG AU): Potential New Home For The Old


Think Childcare (TNK AU) 
Childcare
0.1
Poss. Scheme
8%


Think Childcare (TNK AU) : Takeover Proposal From Alceon Group Seems Light


Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 
Agriculture
0.1
Scheme
27.4%


Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Macquarie Doesn't See A Lemon






Hong Kong




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 
Energy
2.8
Vol. Offer
70.89%


Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Privatisation Offer From Parent






Japan



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 
Chemical
0.1
Tender Offer
42.6%


Honshu Chemical (4115) - An Embarrassment of Riches


Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) 
Auto parts
0.1
Partial Tender
41%


Imasen Electric Partial Tender - Set Governance to Ludicrous Mode


Japan Asia (3751 JP) 
Community ops
0.2
Tender Offer
70.5%


Japan Asia (3751 JP) Management Buyout: Should There Be a BUMP?


Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 
Construction
0.1
Tender Offer
32%


SmallCap Joban Kaihatsu Founder Tries a Free MBO


Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP) 
Financials
0.6
Tender Offer
3%


Resona To Take Kansai Mirai Private!







Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

Building leasing
0.2
Partial Tender
1%


Opportunistic Keihanshin (8818) Tender Offer Designed to Fail


Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 
Real estate
1.25
Tender Offer
32%


A Curiously Unsatisfying Takeover Bid For Kenedix


Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) 
Fresh seafood
0.2
Partial Tender
9.2%


Tohto Suisan Partial Tender Offer - A Weird Tender Which Leads To Listed Zombie-Ism


Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 
Amusement parks
1.0
Rumoured



Mitsui Fudosan Tender For Tokyo Dome (9681) Mooted, and Tokyo Dome Sells Itself For the Wrong Price  


Yomiuri Land (9671 JP) 
Theme Park
0.4
Tender Offer
26%


Yomiuri Land (9671) Takeover - Probably The Wrong Price But Whaddya Gonna Do?










Malaysia



Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 
Chemical/rubber
0.1
MGO
13.14%


Batu Kawan (BAK MK)'s Mandatory Offer for CCM: Low Risk Risk Arb






US



China Biologic Products (CBPO US) 
Medical
1.9
Merger
16.8%


China Biologics (CBPO US): Firm Offer Backed By Prerequisite Votes










Europe/UK



Aryzta AG (ARYN VX) 
B2B solutions
0.9
Indicative Offer
32%


Aryzta - Elliott: Prospective Offer


RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
Insurance
9.5
Offer
48%


RSA - Intact Financial &amp; Tryg: Generous Break-Up Takeover Proposal





Source: Smartkarma Insights

The above does not include the US$0.2bn SPA for amaysim Australia (AYS AU) discussed in Amaysim To Be Wound-Up After Mobile Sale.

Technically, China Biologic Products (CBPO US) was first mentioned on Smartkarma 14 months ago - but now we have a firm offer.


The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~29% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on Smartkarma (139 all-in) is ~31.5%.  The average for all deals discussed on Smartkarma in 2019 (145 deals all-in) was 31.5%.



The charts below provide a snapshot of deals YTD discussed on Smartkarma. Where the deal is a merger of equals or similar, I've assigned no premium.







Summary of News in November of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

15-Nov: 3P Learning (3PL AU) : Indian Ed-Tech Giant BYJU's Competitive Bid 24-Nov: 3P Learning (3PL AU): Ed-Tech Deal Faces a New Twist




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

4-Nov: In an ASX update, Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) goes into detail the numerous Takeover Panel applications. All of a bit of a mess right now.  25-Nov: Cardinal Resources: Three's A Crowd 26-Nov: Nordgold extends its Offer until the 14 December for Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) while continuing to air its concerns over E&amp;P's Offer. Cardinal continues to unanimously recommend Shandong's Offer.




Citadel Group (CGL AU) 

No November update




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

4-Nov: A Scheme implementation Deed has now been entered into, at $12.75/share. The Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in early/mid-March, with an expected implementation date in late March/early April. 




Cromwell Property (CMW AU) 

17-Nov: Board spill for Cromwell Property (CMW AU). One more step for ARA.  26-Nov: ARA's proportional Offer will close on the 30 November.




DWS Ltd (DWS AU) 

No November update




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

25-Nov: An update to say there is no update




OptiComm Ltd (OPC AU) 

3-Nov: OptiComm Ltd (OPC AU) announced it "not received any contact whatsoever from Aware Super " since 15 October.
6-Nov: OptiComm Ltd (OPC AU) shareholders overwhelmingly approve Scheme.




Northern Star Resources (NST AU) 

25-Nov: some finance conditions are met




Village Roadshow (VRL AU) 

9-Nov: In a new announcement, Village Roadshow (VRL AU) said the A$0.12/share uplift is now locked in.
12-Nov: Spheria said it will vote against Scheme B for Village Roadshow (VRL AU).
17-Nov: Mittleman ups stake in Village Roadshow (VRL AU) to 14.34% from 12.87%.
23-Nov: Village Roadshow: Rollercoaster Economics
27-Nov: Mittleman Brothers posted a presentation, which describes its concerns regarding the currently proposed takeover of VLR.  "The current A$2.95 to A$3.00 range of best outcomes provided still appears unfairly low versus our estimate of indicative fair value which is currently A$5.24 per share."





 




Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Allied Properties (H.K.) (56 HK) 
26-Nov: The High Court just upheld the appeal. And the Scheme will now be sanctioned Allied Prop (56 HK): In High Court Today .... 




AMVIG Holdings (2300 HK) 
2-Nov: The Composite doc has now been delayed until the 18 November.   18-Nov: Offer doc for AMVIG Holdings (2300 HK) is out. The first close is the 9 December. The IFA says the Offer is fair &amp; reasonable.   25-Nov: Offer for AMVIG Holdings (2300 HK) now declared unconditional in all respects. 



Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 
18-Nov: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Privatisation Offer From Parent




Car Inc (699 HK) 
14-Nov: Car Inc (699 HK): MBK's Firm Offer




Changshouhua Food (1006 HK) 

11-Nov: China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK) will hold an EGM on the 2 December to consider the Offer from Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH).
19-Nov: Fortune Hero, with 4.04%, has given an irrevocable to accept the Offer for China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK).
25-Nov: More irrevocables trickle in for China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK). This takes the shares held plus irrevocables to 96.58%, and is therefore expected to turn unconditional on the 7th day after the despatch of the Composite Doc.




CIMC-TianDa Holdings (445 HK) 
No November update



Cross Harbour Holdings (32 HK) 
4-Nov: The Offer is now unconditional in all respects. The Offer will remain open for acceptances until the 23 November. 



Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) 

25-Nov: Composite Doc despatched for Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).




Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) 

14-Nov:Pre-conditions have now been fulfilled for the Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) Offer. 16-Nov: Haier Electric (1169 HK): The "H-Share" Guessing Game




Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) 

3-Nov: As expected, the despatch of the Scheme Doc has been pushed back to 30 November, from 4 November.
13-Nov: Pre-conditions have now been fulfilled for the Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) Offer.




Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) 

12-Nov: Leyou Tech (1089 HK): Offer Doc Despatched




Macau Legend Development (1680 HK) 

2-Nov: The Composite Document is out. The closing date is the 24 November. The IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Powerleader Science &amp; Technology Group (8236 HK) 

No November update




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

3-Nov: As expected, the Composite Doc for  Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) has been delayed until 22 January, if need be. 
25-Nov: SEG's shareholders approve the merger of Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK). This is one of the pre-cons. Regulatory approvals form other pre-cons are still outstanding. 




Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) 

9-Nov: As expected, the Composite Doc has been delayed - but only for a week, and is now expected to be despatched on or before the 18 November. 
27-Nov: Sun Art (6808 HK): Offer Doc Out. Not Fair And Reasonable




Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK) 
6-Nov: Yixin (2858 HK)’s Downstream Unconditional MGO 11-Nov: Composite Doc is out for Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK). The first (&amp; probably last) close is the 2 December. 











India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No November update




Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) 

No November update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No November update













Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No November update, but Oasis now over 5%



Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

No November update




NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) 

11-Nov: NTT/Docomo - The KDDI Quibble
17-Nov:Surprising NTT Docomo Tender Result Accelerates Squeezeout, Great Re-Allocation, Nikkei 225 Change
27-Nov: The Other Docomo Selldown and TOPIX Buy  Delisting scheduled for late December.




Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) 

13-Nov: Nitori's Bid for Shimachu Goes Friendly as Shimachu Dumps DCM
16-Nov: DCM Holdings (3050 JP) has extended its Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) by 10 days, so now it ends on 1 December 2020.  This gives it time to await an expected Phase 1 decision by the JFTC regarding the bid by Nitori Holdings (9843 JP). It was something of a no-brainer for them to extend.   On 27Nov, DCM extended again.




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

Tender Offer succeeded.  27Nov: EGM to consolidate is 29 Dec. Delisting to be 19 Jan.














Singapore


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (SSREITR SP) 

27-Nov:  ESR-REIT/Sabana: Furphys And Fear-Mongering
















Thailand


Comments 




COL PCL (COL TB) 
No November update


















Middle East


Comments 




Samba Financial Group (SAMBA AB) /
National Commercial Bank (NCB AB) 

No November update










Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Ahlstrom-Munksjo (AM1 FH) 
No November update



Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


No November update




CaixaBank SA (CABK SM) 
No November update



G4S PLC (GFS LN) 
6-Nov: G4S Playing Hard-To-Get




Play Communications SA (1P1 GR) 
No November update



Talktalk Telecom (TALK LN) 
No November update



William Hill (WMH LN) 
No November update





Australia

Link Administration Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides fund administration, corporate markets, information, and digital and data services. Link Administration Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Link Administration (LNK AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A: January 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~36%. This compared to the average premium in 2020 and 2019 of...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: 2020 Roundup

The average premium for the 19 new deals discussed on Smartkarma in December was ~27% and the YTD average premium for all 158 deals is ~31%. The...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Haier, Tokyo Dome, Cowell, Infratil, Link Admin, Sapporo/Asahi, Mcdonald's

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Link Admin (LNK AU): SS&C Trumps PEP/Carlyle

This remains a non-binding situation, albeit a competitive one. I'd play the spread, and pay at SS&C Technologie's terms.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: November 2020 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~29% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on...

David Blennerhassett

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