Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big tech reversal after yesterdays gains and a horrible earnings print for INTC sends it -20% in AH trading setting a very bleak tone for JP tech</li>
<li>AMZN miss after-mkt on its e-commerce seller services and advertising will weigh on likes of 4755 Rakuten and 4689 LY Corp.</li>
<li>Flight to perceived safety in names such as P&amp;G, CL and KMB may provide a bid for related plays in JP such as 4452 Kao, 4912 Lion, and 8113 Unicharm.</li>
</ul>


Big tech reversal after yesterdays gains and a horrible earnings print for INTC sends it -20% in AH trading setting a very bleak tone for JP tech
AMZN miss after-mkt on its e-commerce seller services and advertising will weigh on likes of 4755 Rakuten and 4689 LY Corp.
Flight to perceived safety in names such as P&amp;G, CL and KMB may provide a bid for related plays in JP such as 4452 Kao, 4912 Lion, and 8113 Unicharm.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.</li>
<li>A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.
A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.
Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.


Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><strong>GAMING PAYABLES</strong> - As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting treatment of payables that can be used to 'flatter' balance sheets that are often overloaded with debt. As <em><strong>@matt_levine</strong></em>observed yesterday:-</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/193/505/original/2021-03-11_10-33-14.png?1615426510" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="193505"></figure></section><p><strong>APPLYING THE 'DUMB RULE OF THUMB' TO JAPAN</strong> - Accordingly, we have applied a simple screen to our universe of 3,689 Japanse companies with the following criteria:</p><ol>
<li><strong>Market Cap, ex Treasury Stock,&gt; ¥100 billion (672 companies)</strong></li>
<li><strong> Last Quarter Payable Days &gt; -100 (93 companies)</strong></li>
<li><strong>1-Year change in Average Days Payable &gt; -25 (7 companies)</strong></li>
</ol><p>We have excluded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a> from the screening due to their consolidation of financial subsidiaries. The results are in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below; however, the TTM Working Capital Day chart for the largest of the seven by market cap is below. It's 'owner' should be no surprise to followers of the Greensill saga.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/193/508/original/2021-03-11_11-04-24.png?1615428279" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="193508"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

GAMING PAYABLES - As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting treatment of payables that can be used to 'flatter' balance sheets that are often overloaded with debt. As @matt_levineobserved yesterday:-APPLYING THE 'DUMB RULE OF THUMB' TO JAPAN - Accordingly, we have applied a simple screen to our universe of 3,689 Japanse companies with the following criteria:
Market Cap, ex Treasury Stock,&gt; ¥100 billion (672 companies)
 Last Quarter Payable Days &gt; -100 (93 companies)
1-Year change in Average Days Payable &gt; -25 (7 companies)
We have excluded Sony (6758 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP), and Japan Post (6178 JP) from the screening due to their consolidation of financial subsidiaries. The results are in the DETAIL section below; however, the TTM Working Capital Day chart for the largest of the seven by market cap is below. It's 'owner' should be no surprise to followers of the Greensill saga.Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Greensill, Gaming Payables & The Seven Samurai of Supply Chain Finance

Japan

Lion Corporation manufactures a variety of household products such as toothpaste and detergents. The Company also produces pharmaceuticals, chemical products, and seasonings.  Lion sells its products primarily in Asia.

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Lion Corp (4912 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Tumbles

Big tech stocks tumble after poor earnings from INTC, AMZN miss to impact JP tech sector, flight to safety in consumer goods may boost related...

Andrew Jackson

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Stick with Japan & India. $ACWI bounce at $86 would be ideal for the bullish case (i.e., establishing a higher low), but we could easily see a test...

Vermilion Research

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Greensill, Gaming Payables & The Seven Samurai of Supply Chain Finance

As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting...

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Tumbles

​Big tech stocks tumble after poor earnings from INTC, AMZN miss to impact JP tech sector, flight to safety in consumer goods may boost related...

Andrew Jackson

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Stick with Japan & India. $ACWI bounce at $86 would be ideal for the bullish case (i.e., establishing a higher low), but we could easily see a test...

Vermilion Research

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Greensill, Gaming Payables & The Seven Samurai of Supply Chain Finance

As part of the fallout from Greensill Capital's collapse, much has been made of the risks involved in supply chain finance and the accounting...

Campbell Gunn

Big tech stocks tumble after poor earnings from INTC, AMZN miss to impact JP tech sector, flight to safety in consumer goods may boost related...