Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books.</li>
<li>We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended discussion of our investments in lithium and the outlook for the sector in the coming years.</li>
<li>Despite dire headlines related to EVs, we remain optimistic about a lithium rebound and skeptical that supply can grow as robustly as projected.</li>
</ul>


2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books.
We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended discussion of our investments in lithium and the outlook for the sector in the coming years.
Despite dire headlines related to EVs, we remain optimistic about a lithium rebound and skeptical that supply can grow as robustly as projected.


2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Looking at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX-US), it remains topside an 8-year base and displays a bullish inflection after consolidating for 8.5 months.</li>
<li>Buying: MP Materials (MP-US), Lithium Americas (LAC-US, LAC-CA), Livent (LTHM-US), AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG-NL), Pilbara Minerals (PLS-AU), Liontown Resources (LTR-AU), AVZ Minerals (AVZ-AU), and Standard Lithium (SLI-CA)</li>
</ul>


Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to continue.
Looking at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX-US), it remains topside an 8-year base and displays a bullish inflection after consolidating for 8.5 months.
Buying: MP Materials (MP-US), Lithium Americas (LAC-US, LAC-CA), Livent (LTHM-US), AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG-NL), Pilbara Minerals (PLS-AU), Liontown Resources (LTR-AU), AVZ Minerals (AVZ-AU), and Standard Lithium (SLI-CA)


Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There are several ADDs/DELs expected across these indices with some names still close to the border.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> deal is likely to trigger a wide range of passive flows across multiple index families.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2026 index rebal event.
There are several ADDs/DELs expected across these indices with some names still close to the border.
The Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) - Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) deal is likely to trigger a wide range of passive flows across multiple index families.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep26: Vault-Genesis Index Implications & Many Regular High-Impact Changes

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and eight changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 13 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>There are still a couple of months left in the reference period which means our expectations may change.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2026 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and eight changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 13 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.
There are still a couple of months left in the reference period which means our expectations may change.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep26: Qube Deal Consequences + Many Other High-Impact Index Changes

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianyou-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44886:1" rel="noopener">Lianyou Metals (7610 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanxiang-advanced-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30188:1" rel="noopener">Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elevra-lithium-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1589:1" rel="noopener">Elevra Lithium (ELVR US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> in June.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and in a round-trip trade of US$840m.</li>
<li>All the adds have moved higher with huge price spikes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianyou-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44886:1" rel="noopener">Lianyou Metals (7610 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanxiang-advanced-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30188:1" rel="noopener">Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH)</a> recently.</li>
</ul>



Lianyou Metals (7610 TT), Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH) and Elevra Lithium (ELVR US) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in June.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and in a round-trip trade of US$840m.
All the adds have moved higher with huge price spikes in Lianyou Metals (7610 TT) and Sanxiang Advanced Material-A (603663 CH) recently.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade

Australia

Liontown Resources Ltd. explores for and mines base metals.

Price Gauge
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Liontown Resources (LTR AU)

2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books. We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended...

Massif Capital Research

Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, and we expect price and RS appreciation to continue. This also provides us...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep26: Vault-Genesis Index Implications & Many Regular High-Impact Changes

We see 43 index changes for the ASX family during the regular index review in September 2026. Most of these index changes have decent flow size and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep26: Qube Deal Consequences + Many Other High-Impact Index Changes

All ASX 200 expected ADDs/DELs have fairly high-impact with multiple days of volume to trade. Most names have 6x-23x ADV to trade.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade

There are 3 adds for REMX in June. The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books. We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended...

Massif Capital Research

Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, and we expect price and RS appreciation to continue. This also provides us...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep26: Vault-Genesis Index Implications & Many Regular High-Impact Changes

We see 43 index changes for the ASX family during the regular index review in September 2026. Most of these index changes have decent flow size and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep26: Qube Deal Consequences + Many Other High-Impact Index Changes

All ASX 200 expected ADDs/DELs have fairly high-impact with multiple days of volume to trade. Most names have 6x-23x ADV to trade.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade

There are 3 adds for REMX in June. The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 9.6% and...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$840m Trade